Taiwan is on a hot tin.. Will the Ukraine scenario be repeated? What would happen if China attacked it?

A heated atmosphere prevails in the Taiwan Strait region these days due to the Chinese military moves, which have reached an advanced stage by declaring a no-fly zone north of Taiwan, of which China considers an integral part. What awaits the Taiwan Strait?

The tension came after US intelligence revealed that it had reports indicating that the Chinese army plans to control Taiwan by 2027. On the other hand, China announced the imposition of a half-hour air embargo in northern Taiwan next week, in conjunction with Chinese President Xi Jinping's stress that his country It will defend what it described as its regional sovereignty and develop its military capabilities.

Strong opposition

For his part, former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for National Security Affairs in Asia David Sidney said – in his interview with the "Beyond the News" program (12/4/2023) – that the Beijing rulers are trying to break the will and resistance of the Taiwanese people, who have become more hostile against China, Indicating that as long as there is a strong opposition will in Taiwan, it will be difficult to overcome them and seize their land.

As for Beijing's point of view, the journalist and political researcher Rong Huan saw that the message of these military moves is directed at the separatists in Taiwan and the forces supporting them, in order to warn them and show China's firm determination to defend the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the moves are considered a simulation of field fighting. for the unity of the country.

He also made it clear that these maneuvers come after the provocations of the separatists in Taiwan, stressing the ability of the Chinese army to carry out the task of uniting the country, and that China will stand in the face of any attempts to achieve independence for Taiwan or the entry of US forces to the island.

Ukraine or Taiwan?

In an analogy between what is happening in Taiwan and Ukraine, the journalist writer specializing in American affairs, Muhammad al-Minshawi, saw that the Ukrainian case is easier, due to its availability on long land borders that facilitated the Russian invasion and control of part of the Ukrainian lands, while in the Taiwanese case, the matter is difficult because it is an island that is more than 100 km from the Chinese mainland.

And he ruled out the occurrence of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, because they – that is, the Chinese officials – realize the consequences of the step on Chinese interests and its position in the world, as well as the conflict that will be created against it by America and Western countries that affirm support for Taiwan and its position as an independent country from China.

actual fight

It is noteworthy that the Chinese president said that Beijing will defend its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights, adding that the military training and comprehensive development of the Chinese forces should be strengthened in anticipation of any actual combat.

On the American level, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that the goal of the United States is peace, security and stability, not entering into a new cold war or containing China.

CIA Director William Burns also said – when commenting on reports of Chinese plans to invade Taiwan – that it is necessary for the United States to take China's desire to control Taiwan very seriously, even if military conflict is not the inevitable outcome.

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