International efforts for mediation in Sudan.. Why do analysts enslave the acceptance of the two sides of the conflict to sit down to negotiate?

Lieutenant General Fath al-Rahman Muhiy al-Din, a military expert and former commander of the Sudanese Navy, said that it is not possible to talk at this stage about dialogue or mediation with another party, in light of the armed forces' insistence on ending the rebellion on the part of the Rapid Support Forces.

In his interview with the “Beyond the News” program (17/4/2023), Mohieldin attributed the closure of any door to dialogue to the fact that the current state of rebellion differs in his estimation from the previous rebellions that Sudan witnessed, as most of them were demanding rights for the people of regions, which some consider legitimate. However, this rebellion seeks to find a force parallel to the armed forces, and this is unacceptable.

This comes against the backdrop of what IGAD mentioned that it had taken a decision to send the presidents of Kenya, William Ruto, South Sudan, Salva Kiir Mayardit, and Djibouti, Ismail Omar Guelleh, to Khartoum to mediate between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, and end the raging fighting between them since the morning of yesterday, Saturday.

In the same context, the African Union said that security reasons still prevented the head of the Union Commission, Moussa Faki, from arriving in Khartoum to mediate a cease-fire in Sudan, after announcing on Sunday that he would immediately go there.

A torrent of statements expressing concern and calling for an immediate cease-fire was issued by countries and international organizations, necessitated by the armed confrontations between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, while the African Union and IGAD went further by announcing the dispatch of high-ranking envoys to Khartoum in order to mediate a cease-fire. .

The dismantling of Sudan

Lieutenant General Muhyiddin continues, in his speech behind the news, "This rebellion aims to dismantle the armed forces, and thus dismantle Sudan, and from this standpoint it has become different from all the rebellions that Sudan witnessed before, and there can be no dialogue with those who think of dismantling Armed forces".

Mohieldin confirms what the army said in previous statements about the joining of numbers of support forces to the armed forces, but he adds that a number of others have been captured, and that those who remain hide in the neighborhoods of Khartoum and cover themselves with civilians, indicating that this is what delays the complete resolution of the battle.

And the former Sudanese naval commander added that his speech does not mean that the army is against the principle of mediation, but he does not see room for it, as the issue has been resolved – according to his estimation – and when the mediation delegations arrive, there will be no other party to the equation.

On the other hand, the Sudanese writer and political analyst, Saleh Jumaa, stresses the need to reach urgent solutions that stop the ongoing fighting, pointing out that the current conditions at home and at the level of the region push for that.

Speaking behind the news, Juma believes that the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo (Hamidti), had a vision of various mechanisms through which he aims to find solutions to the existing political crisis, reach a real democratic transition and hand over power to civilian forces, but the war prevented that.

And he believes that all parties should adopt and accept the principle of negotiation and dialogue, control the voice of reason to prevent the situation from deteriorating further than it is, and work to restore things to normal, stressing that accepting dialogue does not mean defeat or retreat.


In turn, Matt Bryden, a strategic expert at the Sahan Center for Horn of Africa Studies and former head of the Horn of Africa Program at the International Crisis Group, does not see that the current conflict in Sudan is surprising or unexpected, as previous tensions paved the way for it, but everyone was hoping that the framework agreement would be resolved. The political matter, he said.

He continued, in his speech behind the news, "The situation in Sudan is very difficult, as there are forces that do not have political projects trying to impose a fait accompli and negotiate towards a civilian government (…) Unfortunately, few political parties in Sudan have broad popular support."

Bryden believes that the solution to the situation in Sudan revolves around the possibility of creating an international multilateral process, which is not confined to certain parties such as the African Union and IGAD, but rather includes concerned international parties that are interested in Sudan and have an interest in establishing stability in it, to mediate and reach a comprehensive solution.

The strategic expert is skeptical about the possibility that the efforts of the African Union and IGAD alone will bear fruit, pointing to their weak presence in recent periods and their weak influence in the conflicts of the brown continent, and suggesting that the process include countries such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Kenya and Ethiopia.

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