Does the West have cards to end the fighting in Sudan?

The guests of the “Beyond the News” program agreed that the expected impact of the international community on the ongoing conflict in Sudan between the army and the Rapid Support Forces is limited, and that the papers available to exert any pressure on both sides of the conflict are few and ineffective.

In the episode of the program (24/4/2023), Dr. Abdul Hamid Siam, a former spokesperson for the United Nations and an expert in its affairs, said that the ability of the international community to influence the conflict is small, and that most countries have no influence on the two sides of the conflict in Sudan, and that I issued statements related to the events taking place in it.

This comes against the backdrop of a statement by the European Union's foreign policy official, Josep Borrell, that the EU countries will continue to push for a political settlement to the ongoing conflict in Sudan, despite the evacuation of European diplomats and citizens from it, and his indication that the Union is in contact with the two parties to the conflict in an effort to stop the fire.

Siam added, "There are specific countries that have a role in the Sudanese situation, especially the Gulf countries, and even these countries that have distinguished relations with the two parties or one of them. Their capabilities at this stage to put pressure on the two parties are almost non-existent, because each party decided to win militarily over the other."

In this context, he pointed out that military decisiveness is out of the question at this stage, given that the fighting is taking place inside cities and neighborhoods, and in light of the presence of weapons flows, adding: “Whoever believes that the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo, can be defeated quickly is mistaken, especially after revealing what he has.” of weapons, and it appears that he was preparing for this confrontation."

ominous evidence

Siam considered that the current efforts focused on evacuating civilians, and what countries are doing in this context, is ominous evidence that the confrontations will continue, and that the scenario of southern Sudan may be repeated between Salva Kiir and Machar, as the confrontations lasted two years or more, and this is what Sudan cannot bear in light of His humanitarian conditions deteriorated dramatically.

With his agreement on the limited external influence in the ongoing conflict, the Sudanese writer and political researcher, Muhammad Turshin, believes that the European Union is most keen to return the situation to what it was before, and to reach relative stability that helps to tighten control for fear of refugee flows, and to be Sudan is a crossing point for terrorists.

Regarding the position of the United States, Turshin believes that its move is closely related to the role of Russian Wagner in the scene, referring in this context to a statement by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in which he spoke of his country's concern about the presence of Wagner in the equation.

While he indicated that there is pressure on both sides of the conflict from the American side to stop the fighting, the Sudanese writer believes that Washington, which has high heels in the scene, will "wait a little" before issuing a final position on the situation in Sudan.

He believes in his interview with "Beyond the News" that the position of the international community is linked to what will be issued by the UN Security Council in the session scheduled for tomorrow, Tuesday, ruling out the possibility of relying on "intersections and international tensions to impose a peaceful reality or a political settlement in Sudan."

difference and initiative

But Turshin, at the same time, noticed in what was recently issued by the two parties, a difference from what was clear from the escalation at the beginning of the confrontations, as he sees a degree of flexibility and presence to talk about the need for understandings that lead to stopping the fighting.

In this context, he indicated that there is an initiative that has not yet been confirmed, which adopts arranging a meeting for the army commander, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, with Hamidti in Riyadh, and that this initiative is supported by Gulf and European countries as well as the United Nations, in an attempt to reach those understandings.

Ambassador James Moran, former adviser on Middle East and North Africa affairs in the European Union's External Action Department, believes that the highest priority for the European side was the safety of its diplomats and citizens, and what comes later is pressure on the two parties to the conflict in order to sit at the negotiating table to stop this devastating conflict.

The European ambassador agreed with the other two guests of the “Behind the News” program on the limited influence on the parties to the conflict, pointing out that the European Union has “very limited papers,” as sanctions have already been imposed on Sudan since the Darfur crisis, and there are no more sanctions that can be imposed. .

In the context of his justification for the weakness of influence in Sudan, Moran said that the talk here is about two heavily armed factions, and therefore it is necessary at the outset to be careful not to provide weapons to either of them from external parties, referring in this context to reports that speak of support by " "Wagner" by Hemedti's Russian forces.

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