Stocks gave back early gains following a weaker-than-expected update on U.S. manufacturing and a Supreme Court ruling with major implications for the 2024 election.
The Dow was down 16 points, or less than 0.1%. The S&P 500 was down 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.1%.
The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index fell to 48.5 in June, which was below economists’ expectations at 49.1. A reading below a 50 indicates contraction.
Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s the report was more of a “Goldilocks” number, meaning it was “just right.” He cited rising new orders, a leading indicator, and declines in prices that indicate easing inflation pressures.
“In the short term, this number reinforces expectations for a September rate cut (which is positive) but at the same time, and beyond the short term, it does keep alive concerns that the economy is weaker than people think and we continue to think that’s the biggest risk to the rally as we start the second half of 2024,” says Essaye.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note spiked higher after crossing 4.4% and was up to 4.481%. Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities, writes that increased odds of another Donald Trump presidency have sent long-term bond yields higher.
“This is a classic reset of the bond market due to the debate and the increased odds of a Trump victory,” Brenner writes. “We can see the curve getting steeper but as positions start to square out, this could slow this down.”
On Monday, the Supreme Court ruled presidents have immunity from prosecution if they were performing official acts. That could hamper the federal case against Trump related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
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