Bitcoin‘s price has declined by 1.35% in the last 24 hours, now standing 16% below its all-time high of $73,835, which it reached on March 14. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has fallen by 9.2%. This downward trend in June has left market analysts speculating whether Bitcoin has reached its “cycle top.”
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, highlighted multiple on-chain metrics pointing to Bitcoin’s inability to achieve new highs after two retests, which he interprets as a “sign of weakness.” Edwards emphasized the significance of the Bitcoin long-term holder (LTH) inflation rate, which has been rising steadily over the past two years.
According to Glassnode, this metric measures the annualized accumulation or distribution rates of Bitcoin holders relative to daily issuance to miners. At bull market peaks, market inflation typically exceeds the nominal 2.0 threshold, signaling a high likelihood of the cycle top. Currently, the LTH inflation rate stands at 1.9.
Another key metric, the Bitcoin Dormancy Flow, has also been on the rise over the past three months. This on-chain metric gauges the number of coins being spent relative to the overall trend. Glassnode data reveals that the Bitcoin Dormancy Z-score has surged significantly in the last 90 days. Edwards noted that this metric peaked in April 2024, indicating that the average age of coins spent has increased. Historically, peaks in the Dormancy Z-score have preceded cycle tops by about three months.
Additionally, rising clusters and spikes in Spent Volume could signal a market top. Edwards pointed out that sudden growth in Bitcoin’s 7-10 year Spent Volume has historically indicated the end of a cycle. He highlighted a dramatic increase in on-chain Bitcoin movement in 2024. Edwards attributed part of this movement to the defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox, which is preparing to repay its creditors over $9 billion worth of Bitcoin.
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