An “unpredictable” or even “unstable” Emmanuel Macron could resign after Sunday’s second-round parliamentary elections, top aides have warned.
“I know the man – this is not science fiction,” one former top adviser told The Telegraph of the French president, whose snap election could leave his centrist alliance with half the MPs it had last month.
Final polls suggested Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) would fall short of a majority, leaving a chaotic patchwork of parties – from the hard-Left to the centre – to form a government, or mire France in political paralysis.
Mr Macron privately relished “throwing an unpinned grenade” at the French political establishment and electorate by dissolving parliament after defeat in EU elections, according to an Elysée source.
But he now faces the final three years of his presidency with no clear majority, and even his closest allies fear the grenade may prove to be a cluster bomb should he step down. An early presidential election could put Ms Le Pen in the Elysée, if current popularity polls are accurate.
In a letter to the French people a fortnight ago in the regional daily press, Mr Macron insisted he would not stand down. “You can trust me to act as your president until May 2027,” he wrote.
Asked by Le Figaro Magazine if he had “lost the plot”, as some have suggested, he said: “No, not at all. I can confirm that I have not. I’m only thinking about France.”
However, one loyal cabinet member remarked: “In seven years, I’ve had the opportunity to spend hours with [Mr Macron]. One day, he can make you a promise straight to your face, and the next day do the complete opposite. Completely the opposite.
“So when he says: I’ll never leave, I have my doubts,” the MP told Le Parisien.
“He swore to us that he would not draw any national conclusions from the European elections and we got the dissolution. He’s capable of anything,” said another. “I don’t know what’s going on in his head. He’s become elusive,” said a third.
They pointed to Mr Macron’s curious decision to pop champagne corks last Sunday – as the humiliating first round election results came in – to fete the birthday of friend. The results left his Ensemble camp in disarray, likely to drop from 250 seats to as few as 118 in Sunday’s second round vote.
“Has he lost touch with reality to this extent?,” asked one senior cabinet minister.
“Our MPs are being wiped off the legislative map and he’s taking a moment to toast with his mates. What’s the next step? He resigns, Le Pen is elected president, and a big ball is organised in the Elysée party room to celebrate his departure?”
‘Howling Mad Murdoch’
Strange photos taken last Sunday of Mr Macron in shades and an aviator jacket in Le Touquet prompted social media comparisons to Captain HM “Howling Mad” Murdock, the fictional pilot in hit 1980s TV series The A-Team who was declared insane.
Theories abound as to Mr Macron’s rationale for dissolving parliament, some suggesting he hoped to unmask the RN as a bunch of charlatans in government and thus stop Ms Le Pen being elected president in 2027.
His father Jean-Michel Macron offered some insight this week, saying: “It’s better for France to experience [the RN in power] for two years than for five.
“If the RN shows in two years that it is completely incapable of governing, we can hope that it will go no further. That’s what my son told me two months before the European elections,” he told Le Dauphiné Libéré, a regional newspaper.
Three years as a lame duck?
However, some commentators fear the prospect of being a lame duck until 2027 might prove too much for the hyperactive 46-year-old.
An Ipsos Talan poll on Friday saw the RN winning 170-205 seats, a huge increase from the current 89 but well below the 289 required for an absolute majority.
Meanwhile, speculation is rife that the Socialists, Communists and Greens could forge a “republican front”, with Mr Macron’s depleted centrist camp and centre-Right Republican MPs who have not joined forces with Ms Le Pen.
The Leftist France Unbowed, whose figurehead is ex-Trotskyite firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, however, has ruled out joining such a “republican front”.
Either way, Mr Macron is heading for a power-sharing “cohabitation”, in which his role will be limited to foreign and defence policy – and even there, his wings as an international statesman will probably be clipped.
Ms Le Pen has already called for Mr Macron to go if his party suffers a major defeat, saying that, given a reshuffle and fresh elections are impossible, “the only way out of a potential political crisis is for the president to resign”
However, some observers say he will do no such thing.
“The guy is actually hyper-rational,” said one aide. “He will never resign. He’s very lucid… He knows that if he did [go], it would spell the end of the Fifth Republic [and leave Ms Le Pen in power].”
An MP from Mr Macron’s Renaissance party said: “I’m convinced that he’s not thinking about that, it’s not in keeping with the type of person he is. He couldn’t care less about dissolving others. But dissolving himself, that’s not his thing.”
Another MP the reality was more prosaic. “He is neither God nor a mental patient. He’s just the guy who made a big mistake.”
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