European Stocks Rise at Start of Big Week for Data: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — European stocks rose as traders prepared for a week packed with US data that will shed light on the health of the world’s largest economy and the outlook for Federal Reserve interest-rate policy.

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Most European equity sectors traded in the green as the Stoxx 600 index advanced for a fifth day. A gauge of Asian stocks was off its highs for the session, while US futures were steady.

There was some relief from the volatility that ripped through markets last week, fueled by concerns the Fed is waiting too long to cut interest rates. The Cboe Volatility Index — Wall Street’s fear gauge — has retreated from its highest levels since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.

“The skies are not fully clear yet, but there are several reasons that suggest to us that some relatively calmer seas are ahead of us,” analysts at Nomura Holdings Inc. said in a note, citing a lessening of fears about a US recession and lower chances of a very hawkish Bank of Japan as among the grounds for optimism.

There’s no certainty the relative calm will continue, with Wednesday’s US inflation data the key volatility event for the week. According to Citigroup Inc., traders are positioning for the S&P 500 to move 1.2% in either direction when the consumer price index report is released.

Meanwhile, while bond markets have moved to price in a Fed that is “behind the curve,” the risk isn’t “priced into current equity multiples,” according to Morgan Stanley strategists. The team led by Michael Wilson says economic growth is the primary concern for investors, rather than inflation and rates.

“Markets are looking for better growth or more policy support to get excited again,” the team wrote in a note. “We don’t see confirming evidence in either direction near term, leaving the index to trade in a tight range for now.”

Bucking the trend of volatility easing is China, where authorities are fighting against a ferocious bond rally. At least four Chinese brokerages have started fresh measures to cut back trading of domestic government debt since last week, people familiar with the matter said, with worries that a sudden reversal may cause financial instability.

The yen surged last week as traders slashed bearish bets following the BOJ’s rate hike, forcing a negative feedback loop as investors dumped carry trades that ricocheted across global markets. The earnings of UBS Group AG are due on Aug. 14, and details on how clients responded to that volatility is likely to be a big focus.

The BOJ and Fed are the biggest variables to drive trading, said Taosha Wang, a portfolio manager at Fil Asia Holdings Pte Ltd. For the US, “I don’t think the market has agreed — either a recession, which we think is excessive, or a soft landing,” she told Bloomberg Television’s Yvonne Man and David Ingles on Monday.

The US consumer price index is expected to have risen 0.2% from June for both the headline figure and the so-called core gauge that excludes food and energy. The modest moves, however, may not be enough to derail the Fed from a widely anticipated interest-rate cut next month.

At the weekend, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she still sees upside risks for inflation and continued strength in the labor market, signaling she may not be ready to support an interest-rate decrease when US central bankers next meet in September. Money markets have fully priced a rate cut in September and about 100 basis points of easing for the year, according to swaps data compiled by Bloomberg.

In commodities, oil rose Monday, extending a 4.5% gain last week. Some top US oil refiners are throttling back operations at their facilities this quarter, adding to concerns that a global glut of crude is forming. Gold edged higher.

Some key events this week:

India CPI, industrial production, Monday
Australia consumer confidence, Tuesday
Japan PPI, Tuesday
South Africa unemployment, Tuesday
UK jobless claims, unemployment, Tuesday
Home Depot earnings, Tuesday
US PPI, Tuesday
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Tuesday
Eurozone GDP, industrial production, Wednesday
New Zealand rate decision, Wednesday
South Korea jobless rate, Wednesday
Poland CPI, Wednesday
UK CPI, Wednesday
US CPI, Wednesday
Australia unemployment, Thursday
Japan GDP, industrial production, Thursday
Philippines rate decision, Thursday
China home prices, retail sales, industrial production, Thursday
Norway rate decision, Thursday
UK industrial production, GDP, Thursday
US initial jobless claims, retail sales, industrial production, Thursday
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speak, Thursday
Alibaba Group, Walmart earnings, Thursday
Hong Kong jobless rate, GDP, Friday
Taiwan GDP, Friday
US housing starts, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday