CLEVELAND — What a week in the American League Central.
A division that had achieved laughing-stock status in recent years has emphatically emerged as arguably the most compelling — and competitive — subgroup in MLB. With four teams vying for postseason position (and another in Chicago on the verge of unfortunate history), the AL Central will remain in the spotlight over the final week of the regular season and perhaps beyond.
This penultimate week of regular-season play featured two highly consequential matchups, with Minnesota in Cleveland for four games and the red-hot Tigers paying a visit to Kansas City for three. With only one divisional series left on the schedule — the White Sox in Detroit on the final weekend — this was the last chance for these four October hopefuls to gain ground in the standings at the direct expense of their rivals.
The Tigers’ second-half surge after acting as sellers at the trade deadline has left much of the baseball world dazed and confused. Even coming off a rousing series victory against the scuffling Orioles, Detroit’s trip to Kauffman Stadium, where the Royals boasted one of baseball’s best home records, looked like a daunting task on paper. Instead, Detroit kept on rolling. After surrendering a grand slam to Bobby Witt Jr. in the third inning of the series opener, the Tigers’ army of largely anonymous arms held the Royals to five runs over the ensuing 25 innings en route to a stunning sweep at the most opportune time.
Playoff odds that barely climbed above 2% for much of August, according to FanGraphs, have skyrocketed lately for the Tigers, opening the door for them to end what is tied with the Angels for baseball’s longest postseason drought. Detroit’s three starting pitchers in its most recent postseason series? Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and David Price. In other words: It’s been a while.
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Meanwhile, in Cleveland, the Guardians were hoping to avoid a repeat of what happened three weeks ago, when Kansas City strolled into town and took three of four. It was during that series that the Guardians briefly relinquished sole possession of first place for the first time since mid-April, but they have course-corrected brilliantly since then and entered this week’s series on a much higher note than their opponent.
Because their opponent was feeling the heat. A month ago, the Twins held a nine-game lead over the Tigers, a gap that has since evaporated as Minnesota’s worst stretch of the season has run parallel to Detroit’s best. The Twins’ skid culminated in a nightmare outcome in this week’s four-game set in Cleveland, as the Guardians seized the series in exhilarating fashion, authoring three thrilling comebacks to bring their season total to 42 come-from-behind victories, more than any other team in MLB. Andres Gimenez’s 10th-inning walk-off on Thursday clinched a postseason spot for the Guardians, while Minnesota — 17 games over .500 as recently as Aug. 17 — dropped to 80-73, tied with Detroit with just nine games to play.
Following Monday’s dramatic victory, Guardians first-year skipper Stephen Vogt made headlines with his outwardly emotional response to a question about watching Kyle Manzardo’s go-ahead home run in the eighth inning. It was the first of several big swings in the series from the rookie Manzardo, who has supplied a much-needed boost to Cleveland’s offensive efforts in the wake of leadoff hitter Steven Kwan going on the IL due to a back injury.
Vogt said his favorite part was not Manzardo’s homer itself but, rather, his teammates’ ecstatic reactions, specifically that of Josh Naylor, who was on base when Manzardo took the lead with one swing. “I love these guys,” Vogt said, visibly choked up. “They’re so much fun to watch. They love each other. They work hard. That was an emotional night. And to see two teammates come together like that? That’s powerful.”
The waterworks might have been a new feature, but that sentiment has become awfully familiar in Vogt pressers this season. He has repeatedly heaped praise on how his clubhouse has come together to produce fantastic results and significantly outperform external expectations, with a winning culture that has been established by veterans and young players alike.
Beyond the players on the field, Vogt is also quick to recognize the importance of his fellow coaches tasked with getting the most out of Cleveland’s roster. Following a future Hall of Fame manager in Francona was no small feat entering his debut managerial campaign, and Vogt directs enormous amounts of credit to the coaching staff that surrounds him. It’s a group that ranges from bench coach Craig Albernaz, who joined the organization this year alongside Vogt, to franchise mainstays such as first-base coach Sandy Alomar Jr. and pitching coach Carl Willis to Ohio natives such as bullpen coach Brad Goldberg, who has played a pivotal role in the preparedness and performance of baseball’s best relief unit.
“This staff works tremendously hard. They are over-prepared for every game. All of us are exhausted by the time we leave here because we’ve given every single ounce of energy to our players, and that’s our job,” he said. “And then you recharge and do it again the next day.
“ … All of them have coached longer than I have, and I lean on them very, very heavily throughout the game, throughout the day. It’s been a blast. And getting to do this with Craig Albernaz next to me,” — Vogt has known Albernaz since they were minor leaguers in the Rays organization from 2007 to 2012 — “it’s been a dream.”
For someone who played a decade in the big leagues and made a couple of All-Star teams along the way, Vogt’s endorsement of his experience this season speaks volumes: “This has been the most fun year of my career.”
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As Vogt’s “dream” season continues, a far more difficult managerial mission has emerged for Twins skipper Rocco Baldelli, with Minnesota trying to avoid squandering what once looked like another likely trip to the postseason.
It was five years ago that Baldelli guided the Twins to an AL Central title in his first year as skipper. A year ago, Minnesota was celebrating its third division title in five seasons with Baldelli as manager, having cruised to first place in a historically weak division. This year, though, has proven to be far more challenging, due not just to the resurgent trio of AL Central rivals but also to two internal roster dynamics that Baldelli has had to navigate.
The first is unfortunately familiar: The Twins’ two best players get hurt a lot. Both Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton went on the IL in mid-August, with Buxton battling right hip inflammation and Correa dealing with plantar fasciitis — this time in his right foot after he played through the same injury in his left foot for the majority of last season. Both players were brilliant over the season’s first few months, making it hardly a coincidence that the team started to nosedive as soon as their lengthy absences began.
“It hasn’t gone away. It’s not gone. It won’t be gone,” Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told Yahoo Sports of Correa’s diagnosis. Buxton appeared in two Triple-A games before returning, but Correa skipped a rehab assignment and slotted right back into the middle of the Twins’ lineup after two months on the shelf, which Falvey doesn’t take lightly.
“We’ll build him as thoughtfully as we can,” Falvey said. “But he wanted to go, and we wanted him to go. We’re at the point in the season where he knows what it’s like to play through this and to deal with it. So I think hopefully we’re going to get some version of him building back up, then that ultimately is a key piece for us down the stretch.”
Being mindful of that build-up while needing every ounce of production from these two stars is an awfully tricky proposition for Baldelli and Co. to manage on a daily basis. The margins in the current race make every game that either Correa or Buxton sits out feel like that much more of a missed opportunity to put the best team on the field, especially as the supporting cast has been largely inconsistent in their absences.
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The most glaring example of that has been the recent performance of Royce Lewis. Lewis, another oft-injured, uber-talented player, has managed to stay healthy for an extended period but has endured one of the worst stretches of his professional career at a time when the Twins sorely need his star potential to shine through, as it did earlier this season and down the stretch a year ago. Lewis’ ongoing struggles — he’s hitting .216/.254/.293 over his past 33 games — have only amplified the pressure on Correa and Buxton to immediately produce upon return from injury.
The second complicating matter for Minnesota has been the unique challenge of having three rookie starting pitchers in the rotation in the midst of a postseason push. Veterans Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober have been rock-solid all year and especially excellent over the past month, but injuries to Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack and Anthony DeSclafani have necessitated heavy reliance on a trio of 24-year-old right-handers: Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa and Zebby Matthews, all of whom have set career- highs in innings pitched this season.
While Matthews and Woods Richardson delivered nearly identical solid outings on Wednesday and Thursday, the fact that neither completed five innings provided a sobering reminder of how much Minnesota has been asking of its bullpen on days Lopez and Ober don’t pitch. The Twins’ relief corp is a talented group, but one that has been stretched thin down the stretch and has paid the price accordingly, and that was on display this week in Cleveland.
Should they manage to still sneak into October, it will be fascinating to see which of the three Twins rookies emerges as the strongest candidate to start a postseason game. At the very least, it’s a safe bet that Rocco Baldelli and his staff will be concocting some creative ways to deploy their pitching staff in the coming weeks.
All that said, the Twins aren’t cooked just yet. For as ugly as it has gotten at times, a path still exists for Minnesota to fend off the Tigers and set up a rematch with a Houston team that sent them home in last year’s ALDS. Minnesota heads to Boston for three games against a Red Sox squad that has also struggled mightily in September yet sits just four games back of the Twins in the wild-card standings. Should the Twins successfully squash Boston’s last gasp this weekend, it will be imperative for Minnesota to take care of business next week against the lowly Marlins before finishing with three against a Baltimore team that might not have anything to play for at that point.
For now, Baltimore has a small shot to chase down the Yankees atop the AL East, but the Tigers arrive at Camden Yards this weekend with a chance to really make things interesting in the AL wild-card picture. Detroit then heads home to face Tampa Bay and the White Sox, perhaps presenting a golden opportunity for the Tigers to surge ahead of Minnesota in the waning hours of the regular season.
The Royals remain in solid shape to secure the second AL wild-card spot and will look to bounce back from their rough showing against Detroit as they welcome the just-eliminated Giants to Kauffman Stadium for three games. An ultra-juicy interleague showdown in Atlanta awaits during the final weekend, a series that could have serious implications for both clubs’ playoff position.
Finally, Cleveland can clinch the AL Central as early as Saturday in St. Louis, but the real prize is the top overall seed in the AL bracket. For the team with the American League’s best home record (48-28), securing home-field advantage throughout the postseason could be a massive boon for Cleveland and is very much in play, as the Guardians sit just a half-game behind the Yankees entering play Friday.
No matter what happens from here on out, these four AL Central teams are certain to give us plenty more to talk about. Imagine saying that a year ago!
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