Tensions are increasing in the Horn of Africa where a dispute between Ethiopia and Somalia over access to the Red Sea has brought Egypt and its military might into the frame. Facebook posts in Ethiopia are adding to the sabre-rattling by circulating videos in misleading contexts. One post talks about the âdestructionâ of Egypt by Chinese warplanes gifted to Ethiopia. Other posts claim âEgyptian forces have been encircled in Somaliaâ and âEthiopian fighter jets have entered Somaliaâ. AFP Fact Check found that the videos have been misrepresented and the claims are so far groundless.
A Facebook post published on September 18, 2024, and shared more than 800 times features a TikTok video with a caption in Amharic that translates to: âAbiy has been overjoyed.â
âAbiyâ refers to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
The rest of the caption claims Egypt has been âdestroyedâ.
âEthiopiaâs enemies are terrified,â says a narrator in the video. âNews released from Xi Jinpingâs country â Beijing â revealed that Ethiopia is receiving the devastating J10 fighter jet, which is not detected by radar, from Beijing.â
The video shows stitched-together footage of various combat aircraft and military equipment, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, and aerial views of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
âEgypt had been considering buying a dangerous jet to attack the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam when it learned of the devastating news,â the narrator adds.
Another Facebook post published on September 24, 2024, says that âEgyptian forces have been encircled in Somalia: great news for Abiyâ.
âEthiopiaâs enemies have turned against each other after conspiring to destroy it,â says the male narrator, adding, âwe do not want Ethiopian forces leaving Mogadishu, let alone fighting with them.â
In this context, âenemiesâ refers to Somalia and Egypt. Mogadishu is the capital of Somalia.
The clip also reports on a US warning to its citizens in Lebanon to leave amid fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.
A third Facebook post claims âSu-27 fighter jets have begun entering Mogadishu… Ethiopian troops that would engulf Somalia have arrivedâ.
The Su-27, short for Sukhoi Su-27, is a Russian-made fighter aircraft used by the Ethiopian Air Force (ETAF).
âHistory has been made. Ethiopian soldiers have tricked Somali troops and knocked down Mogadishu,â says the narrator at the beginning of the video.
âHassan Sheik Mohammed, who is serving as a puppet of Egypt, cannot believe what is happening. Although Somalia agitated to engage in military confrontation with Ethiopia, BBC reported that Ethiopia has deployed over 20,000 troops inside Somalia.â
Hassan Sheik Mohammed is Somaliaâs President.
Regional tensions
Relations between Ethiopia and Somalia have soured since Ethiopia signed a maritime agreement with the breakaway region of Somaliland in January this year (archived here).
Egypt, which has long been at loggerheads with Ethiopia over the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River, sent defence equipment to Somalia in August shortly after the two nations signed a military pact (archived here).
A second round of Egyptian military aid recently arrived in Mogadishu, according to international media reports (archived here).
Complicating matters is the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), a peacekeeping force that includes more than 3,000 Ethiopian soldiers helping to combat al-Shabab militants. Previously known as AMISON, the mission expires at the end of this year (archived here).
Replacing it in January 2025 is the African Union Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), to which Egypt has offered to contribute troops.
The fate of Ethiopiaâs participation is up in the air â Somalia announced in late August 2024 that Ethiopian forces would not be part of AUSSOM unless it ends the maritime deal with Somaliland.
Despite the rising tensions, the claims in the posts suggesting a regional conflict was underway are misleading.
No evidence
In each case, the claims in the videos’ descriptions were not supported by their actual contents.
The first video reports solely on the renewed military cooperation between Ethiopia and China.
Like Egypt and Somalia, the two countries signed an agreement on September 15, 2024 (archived here) to collaborate in the areas of âFifth-Generation Warfare (5GW), technology transfer, military equipment and military capacity buildingâ, according to an article by the Ethiopian News Agency.
The article does not mention Chinese stealth jets specifically.
Referring to the bilateral deal, the narrator says that âChina has unexpectedly good news for the Ethiopian military. Chinese and Ethiopian defence commanders announced that the two countries have agreed to strengthen their military cooperation.â
At no point does he mention the âdestructionâ of Egypt but suggests the closer military ties would be âdevastatingâ for Egypt.
The second video contains various news items, including a report about âSomalis protest[ing] against the deployment of Egyptian forces in Mogadishuâ.
International media has reported on protests in various parts of Somalia against Egyptian forces possibly being deployed under the auspices of AUSSOM (archived here).
However, the video makes no mention of Egyptian troops being encircled in Somalia.
Likewise, the third video does not describe the presence of Ethiopian jets entering Mogadishu.
Instead, it refers to the same peacekeeping missions and says that â3,000 Ethiopian soldiers were deployed in Somalia under the African Union Mission and more than 7,000 soldiers deployed in various regions of Somalia as part of bilateral agreements before Egyptian forces deploymentâ.
Online searches were unable to find any credible news reports to back up the misleading claims.
AFP Fact Check has previously debunked claims related to military tensions in the Horn of Africa here and here.
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