Hurricane Milton was a rare and powerful Category 5 hurricane early Wednesday on a expedited track toward Florida’s west coast where it is forecast to make landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday between Port Charlotte and Tarpon Springs.
Milton is expected to remain a major hurricane until landfall, and is pushing an unrelenting storm surge toward the vulnerable Tampa Bay and Sarasota areas of up to 15 feet. Amounts as high as 12 feet in Fort Myers Beach to the south are possible and there is a potential for up to 13 feet near the Big Bend’s Anclote River where Category 4 Hurricane Helene made landfall less than two weeks ago.
Palm Beach County remains under a tropical storm warning, with damaging 39 mph-plus winds expected to begin as early as Wednesday afternoon but most likely after sunset. They could last through Thursday. A flood watch was canceled for Palm Beach County but remained in effect for Hendry, Glades, and Collier counties.
Areas along the southwest coast of Florida will start to see deteriorating conditions throughout Wednesday.
As of 5 a.m., Milton had sustained winds of 160 mph and was moving northeast at 14 mph. It was about 300 miles southwest of Tampa over incredibly warm water. Storm dampening wind shear is forecast to increase on Wednesday, which could weaken Milton’s wind speeds slightly but it is expected to be a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds at landfall.
Milton is being steered by a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and an area of high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean and is forecast to remain on an northeasterly track until it reaches the coast where it will then cut across Florida maintaining hurricane strength.
Milton’s hurricane-force winds extend 30 miles from its center with tropical storm-force winds reaching as far as 125 miles. But, those distances are expected to increase, giving Milton a farther reach across the Peninsula.
“Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida,” National Hurricane Center meteorologists wrote in a Wednesday morning discussion. “This is a very serious situation andresidents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials.
An estimated 25 counties have issued evacuation orders, including Palm Beach County which asked residents in Zone A — mobile homes and areas that are prone to flooding — to leave on Tuesday. The county is opening five general population shelters, one special needs shelter and a pet-friendly shelter.
For more information about Palm Beach County shelters go to https://discover.pbc.gov/publicsafety/dem/Pages/default.aspx.
West Palm Beach has a 65% chance of feeling sustained tropical storm-force winds from Milton. Fort Lauderdale has a 46% chance and Miami-Dade has a 10 to 20% chance, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.
Chances for hurricane force winds in West Palm Beach are 4%. They are 1% in Fort Lauderdale, and Miami has nearly no chance of experiencing hurricane winds.
Rain amounts were reduced by the NWS office in Miami for southeast Florida with just 1 to 3 inches of rain expected through Thursday morning.
State officials and meteorologists have been extremely concerned about how Tampa will fair from the storm if it comes in at an angle that would push the maximum amount of saltwater into the bay.
Weather Underground co-founder Jeff Masters, who writes a column for Yale Climate Connections, said a little wobble to the south could make a huge difference in reducing the amount of storm surge flooding into Tampa Bay.
An NHC forecast early Wednesday had Milton making landfall between Bradenton and Sarasota. That could mean Tampa Bay would get hurricane-force winds blowing offshore, sending water out of the bay with a lesser surge of 3 to 6 feet on the backside of the storm.
“We likely won’t know until just six hours or less before landfall whether or not Tampa Bay will see a disastrous storm surge,” Masters said. “A wobble of a mere 15 miles in track would make all the difference, with tens of billions in storm surge damage occurring with a more northerly track, but just a few billion with a more southerly one.”
But the storm is expected to grow in size and Masters notes that some of the most destructive storms in history peaked at Category 4 or 5 but made landfalls as lesser Cat 3 hurricanes. Those include hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 and Hurricane Opal in 1995.
Some evacuees reported traffic jams and trouble finding gas on Tuesday.
Tampa residents Kristin Ruyle and Dan Belcher, who evacuated early Tuesday with their dogs Fritz and Berlin, said they took back roads as much as possible but still said their expected 6-hour drive to South Carolina was estimated at 10 hours.
Milton is the first hurricane the couple has evacuated for during 25 years living in Tampa. The center of the forecast track cone going over their house, and concerned calls from friends and relatives convinced them they needed to go.
Another motivator; Tampa Mayor Jane Castor told CNN that if people in evacuation areas choose to stay they “are going to die.”
“My phone went bananas, we had people calling freaking out,” Belcher said after the CNN appearance. “We had friends from all over the country saying ‘You guys should leave, you’re about to die.'”
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate, weather, and the environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. Help support our local journalism, subscribe today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Hurricane Milton remains a major hurricane and will make landfall late Wednesday early Thursday
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