Houston has problems. C.J. Stroud is hiding just about all of them

In this week’s Football 301, I took a look at two quarterbacks: one an NFL signal-caller playing as well as anybody at the position right now, the other a college passer rising on my prospect ranks with a tasty ranked matchup ahead this weekend.

I’m not about to use 2,000-plus words to say that C.J. Stroud, the former No. 2 overall NFL Draft selection and reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year, is good at playing quarterback. First off, he is good at playing quarterback. So there. But I more so wanted to paint a picture of what Stroud is not only accomplishing right now, but what he is overcoming for the Houston Texans, especially on plays without the ball in his hands. And he is excelling even more than the statistics and wins are indicating.

Every week, hell nearly every drive, Stroud has throws that rank among the most impressive plays in the league. Here he is navigating pressure in the pocket and stepping into an incoming Bills defensive tackle, yet despite throwing side arm with his shoulders square to the line of scrimmage, still gets the throw off in the rhythm of the play design and still puts the ball right on Stefon Diggs’ facemask.

The Texans’ offense, much like the end of his rookie season, is Stroud navigating iffy pockets and ripping off chunk plays with his arm. Nearly all of those plays are from inside the pocket and well within the original design of the concept. He’s a true pocket passer solving defensive looks with his eyes, arm and mind.

Since Week 1, when Joe Mixon was last fully healthy and the Texans’ run game roared, the Texans have been atrocious running the ball. No matter how you parse the numbers, the Texans have had the worst run game in the NFL over the past month. Their success rate on running back runs is 23%, last in the NFL over that time (league average was 41.6% from Weeks 2-5). That 23% would rank among the five worst running games for an offense since 2012 (this year’s Raiders are in that group, too). Of the Texans’ designed runs, 63.5% have seen the runner contacted before the line of scrimmage, second-highest in the NFL. Let that number sink in; two out of three handoffs to Texans running backs are met with a defender before they even get to the line of scrimmage.

This is a combination of things. Mixon and Dameon Pierce have both missed time, so the Texans have had to give dozens of touches to Cam Akers and Dare Ogunbowale, which certainly doesn’t help (Pierce did practice this week, though). Inconsistent blocking and angles, especially along the interior (Shaq Mason has taken a slight step back and left guard Kenyon Green has looked more like his inconsistent career self rather than the monster performance he had in Week 1) has led to early leakiness that the Texans’ replacement-level running backs can’t overcome. On top of that, the Texans are the fifth-most penalized offense on a per-snap basis since Week 2. The offensive line, especially left tackle Laremy Tunsil, is repeatedly getting penalized. Sometimes multiple plays in a row.

Sometimes Stroud even has to remind his line how to operate to even get the play going.

There is even a bit of dryness with the designs in the run game. Outside of an inspired design against the Bills in the red zone that led to an Akers touchdown, the early down staples for the Texans don’t have the same window dressing to help eke out more yards. Instead it feels dry, stale and predictable. The Bills’ linebackers seemed to have real keys on the Texans’ runs; watch Dorian Williams (42) on the plays below.

I don’t necessarily have issues with what’s being run, it’s mostly sound, but the execution from the players has been lacking, with different blockers taking turns in contributing to the problem.

A combination of this outright poor running game, along with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik’s preference to stick to a more balanced formula, has led to a ton of difficult passing situations for Stroud and the Texans’ offense to overcome. The Texans currently average 9.3 yards to go on third down over the past four games. That’s dead last in the NFL and 2 yards longer than the league average of 7.3.

Even “easy button” plays like screens are more just fine in this offense. The Texans have a solid success rate with screens, but have only recorded one explosive play on 23 such plays so far this season, according to TruMedia. Again, it leaves Stroud to make up chunks with his arm.

The Texans’ pass game will use play-action and get Stroud on the move on bootlegs, but even that will end up turning into Stroud having to do just a little bit more to create a positive play (like on the first clip of this article or the play embedded below).

Am I painting a difficult picture for Stroud to operate out of? Good. Because like learning first base after playing catcher your whole career, it’s incredibly hard. Stroud’s box score statistics are good, the underlying statistics are fine, but not overwhelming (ninth in EPA per dropback, 18th in dropback success rate). And even on plays where Stroud pulls off a play with a stunning combination of smarts, savvy and arm talent, there are still things that yank the Texans’ offense backward another 5 yards with another penalty, or the play goes down as a basic incompletion in the box score.

This play against the Vikings, where Stroud “struggled” to 215 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, is one of numerous examples of Stroud doing everything he can to make the Texans’ offense salvageable. That’s especially tough against tough defenses like the ghouls that Brian Flores unleashes every weekend in Minnesota. But his Texans teamates still somehow making it all for naught.

On this play, another third-and-long situation, the Texans motion into a 3 x 1 formation with three eligible receivers to Stroud’s right and Tank Dell the lone receiver at the bottom of the screen.

The Vikings show one of Flores’ staple Cover 0 looks, with man coverage on the split-out receivers and no safety help. The look that the Vikings are giving is also a protection rule breaker for the Texans’ six-man protection.

The Texans’ offensive line is using a three-man slide to the right, involving the center, right guard and right tackle to block the three Vikings aligned across from them. This leaves the left side of the protection with the left guard, left tackle and running back and a math problem and conundrum for the offense. You might notice that there are four Vikings aligned over to the left of the center, but there are only three Texans. And three is fewer than four. If the left guard and left tackle block the two players that have been declared as “likely” rushers, the RB blocks the defender aligned in the “A” gap between the center and guard (like he does), that leaves one possible pass rusher without a body to block him.

So, how does an offense solve this? You could change the protection to the left. But that leaves it up to chance that you’re guessing correctly (this particular play call also adapts based on the offensive line’s slide and who is blocking, with different players dropping into coverage as “hot droppers” to intercept possible quick “hot” throws that were the traditional answer to Cover 0 for a long time. Defenses are really annoying, I agree).

Or, you can do what Stroud does on this play. Notice that before the play (you can see it in the screenshot above) he signals to Dell that if the unblocked defender, Harrison Smith, comes, Dell will adjust his original route to beat it. In this case, it’s a “glance” (think an extended slant route).

That in itself is already an astute adjustment from Stroud. But there’s even more. Vikings cornerback Shaq Griffin is also aware of the possible answers the offense could have (this Vikings’ defense is funky but well coached and scouted). He shades inside and is prepared to jump the in-breaking route. Even with that, and with Dell’s uneasy route-running, Stroud doesn’t panic and makes a second-window throw that leaves Griffin lunging for air despite pressure being right in his face.

This is advanced play at quarterback and a superb understanding of the operation capped off with a disgustingly good throw. And he’s doing it on third down, on the road and against one of the best defenses in the NFL. If you don’t think this is difficult, ask Aaron Rodgers and the Jets how it went for them against the exact Vikings blitz in Week 5, which my friend Bill Barnwell kindly clipped together this week:

The Jets decided to have Rodgers beat the blitz looks with a quick throw, which resulted in a pick-6 right to a hot dropping defender and a sack where Rodgers took a shot from an unblocked defensive back rushing. Remember what I said about Flores having the solution to the traditional answers?

Stroud doesn’t change the protection and leave it up to chance that his line will sort it out. He just throws past the problem, gashing the defense with an explosive play despite the Vikings having viable answers to the obvious solutions. A “I know what you know what I know what you know” from a quarterback (and defensive coordinator) operating at the highest level.

This is valuable. I would even say the most valuable to any team so far this season along with the usual collection of wizards playing the position in the AFC. The Texans’ defense has been flying around and their pass rush is a great equalizer in any game, but I feel safe to say that this Texans offense would sit near the bottom of the NFL without Stroud.

And now with Nico Collins on injured reserve and both offensive tackles not practicing to start the week, it still won’t get any easier for Stroud. But he has already shown his ability to mitigate woeful offensive line play throughout his career and this season. Collins is a big hit, a player who has leveled up and was my favorite for Offensive Player of the Year through the first portion of the season, but Stroud, despite a few turnovers against the Bills, was still firing away and was an absolute machine on third down. He was beating the Bills’ blitz looks and churning out first downs despite (more) pressure in his face and throwing to Xavier Hutchinson instead of Collins.

Or just continuing to pepper Stefon Diggs, even when there is the tiniest of windows to thread.

Stroud and the Texans had high expectations going into this year. Their defense has lived up to it, they’re winning games, but some of the offense really hasn’t been up to snuff. Stroud is definitely living up to the expectations, even if the Texans’ offense has felt off at times. He is not simply a good quarterback. He is playing like one of the best QBs and players in the entire NFL right now.

A QB prospect rises

The potential class of quarterbacks for the 2025 NFL Draft, as it stands today, is underwhelming.

Sure, there are a handful of prospects with interesting aspects to their games; glimpses of workable tools or styles that indicate there is something, anything, to build upon and possibly grow into a long-term starter. I’ll have an updated top 50 big board at the end of the month that will talk about a few of those prospects, but I wanted to highlight a quarterback who will be making that updated big board and is one of the biggest risers overall. He has risen so much that he, as it stands right now, is jockeying for a spot at the top of the QB1 mountain in my rankings (well, this year’s class is more of a decent-sized hill).

That quarterback is LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, a first-year starter who is replacing Heisman Trophy winner and No. 2 overall draft selection Jayden Daniels.

Nussmeier started off his impressive play early, throwing for nearly 400 yards and three touchdowns against Wisconsin in the ReliaQuest Bowl (really?) after Daniels sat out to finish the 2023 season.

So far in 2024, Nussmeier keeps getting better every week, first in a Las Vegas duel against USC’s Miller Moss.

Which included a little presnap recognition that resulted in an LSU touchdown:

Then a couple of weeks later against South Carolina, despite some consistent pressure from the Gamecocks’ talented young pass rushers, Nussmeier continued to maneuver in the pocket and fire downfield. And that has continued since then against UCLA and South Alabama.

Nussmeier plays with an excellent feel for the position, which makes a ton of sense since he is the son of former NFL quarterback and current Philadelphia Eagles quarterback coach Doug Nussmeier. He is constantly keeping his eyes downfield, even when bouncing around pass rushers. And that feel shows up not just with eye test but even statistically: Nussmeier has taken only one sack this year and currently has a comically low pressure-to-sack rate of 2.8%. LSU has a great pair of offensive tackles in Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr., but Nussmeier’s pocket movement, sense of timing and understanding of blitzes and protections allow him to eke out as much time as possible to rip another throw off.

And it’s not like he is just getting the ball out quickly to avoid sacks. Nussmeier is an aggressive thrower. Watch the embedded reel above and look at the target chart below. Nussmeier is not just getting production from quick screens or blindly thrown go balls (although he has plenty of arm for that), but with layered throws into the intermediate areas and over the middle of the field.

Nussmeier has plenty of arm, he can push the ball downfield and over the middle, and his accuracy shines. His throws are not only consistently catchable but consistently in stride for his pass catchers (speaking of LSU pass catchers, make sure to watch tight end Mason Taylor, too. He’s another player who will be making the updated big board). And that’s when throwing all kinds of throws from different platforms, too.

Nussmeier is more of a solid athlete with adequate size (listed at 6-foot-2, 200 pounds), but he has polished footwork (remember who his dad is!) and is comfortable throwing on the move or from awkward platforms. He doesn’t scramble much (only twice so far this season, which I consider more of a positive considering how effective he is as a passer and his lack of overwhelming size), choosing to operate from the pocket, but he isn’t a statue back there, either. In fact, he even had a rushing touchdown on a designed draw against South Alabama. His athleticism is more showcased with his quickness and balance than sheer speed.

In a class that leaves you squinting at a lot of prospects and seeing how they can continue to develop, Nussmeier’s polished play has been refreshing to watch this early in the process. LSU and Nussmeier have a huge SEC game this weekend at home against Ole Miss, which will be a key game scouts and decision makers will study. Nussmeier has already done quite a bit to help his profile as a prospect with so few starts, but this weekend could add even more fuel for his rise up boards.

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