Tesla Delivers Blowout Quarter and Upbeat Outlook for 2025

(Bloomberg) — Tesla Inc. shares climbed in early trading after the carmaker reported surprisingly strong earnings and forecast as much as 30% growth in vehicle sales next year.

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Third-quarter results were buoyed by Tesla turning a corner with the Cybertruck, which contributed to profit for the first time. Lower material costs, an expanding energy business and sales of regulatory credits to automakers struggling to reduce emissions also contributed to Tesla’s biggest quarterly profit in more than a year.

Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk offered an upbeat outlook for next year, driven by the rollout of more affordable models that Tesla has yet to identify. “Something like 20% to 30% growth next year is my best guess,” he said on a call with analysts.

Tesla shares jumped 11% as of 5 a.m. Thursday in New York, before the start of regular trading. The stock had fallen 14% this year through the close Wednesday, having slumped in the weeks since Musk unveiled self-driving taxi and van prototypes.

Musk is betting Tesla’s future on autonomy, having scrapped plans for a new vehicle that was going to be cheaper than the Model 3 sedan. By reporting an uptick in profitability and optimism about next year, the CEO assuaged concerns that Tesla’s core business will continue slipping while he prioritizes a years-long pursuit of self-driving technology.

“Investors who wanted something today got better-than-expected profit and guidance for growth in deliveries,” said Gene Munster, managing partner of growth-investment firm Deepwater Asset Management. “The long-term investors got the golden carrot.”

Musk spent a brief portion of the earnings call floating what he might do in a second Trump administration. He called for a federal approval process for autonomous vehicles and said he would “try to make that happen” if appointed to a role he and Republican nominee Donald Trump first discussed in August. The billionaire has since disclosed having directed more than $75 million to Trump’s campaign.

Tesla projected “slight growth” in vehicle deliveries for this year, which will require a record showing in the fourth quarter after sales slumped in the first half.

The company said the Cybertruck, which it first delivered late last year, achieved positive gross margin driven by increased production. While the company has not disclosed how many trucks it’s built or sold, recalls show the company has delivered at least 27,000 in the US.

Tesla reported adjusted earnings of 72 cents a share, beating the average analyst estimate and snapping four consecutive quarters in which the measure missed expectations. The company’s third-quarter automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, was 17.1%, beating analysts’ estimates and ticking up from 14.6% in the previous quarter.

Low Expectations

Garrett Nelson, an analyst with CFRA Research, said investors had a low bar for this quarter and questioned whether Tesla can sustain the level of profitability.

“Expectations were low heading into the release after four consecutive bottom-line misses and a Robotaxi Day that left investors with more questions than answers,” Nelson said in a note to clients.

Tesla generated $739 million in revenue during the quarter from selling regulatory credits to automakers in need of assistance complying with stricter pollution standards. This was the Austin-based company’s second-biggest haul, trailing only the previous quarter.

Tesla also credited its energy business as a revenue and profitability driver. The company has already deployed more battery storage products so far this year than in all of 2023.

Ride-Hailing

Musk expects to go public next year with a ride-hailing app that employees have been testing out in the San Francisco Bay area. The company plans to launch first in California and Texas.

“That would be very exciting,” the CEO said, calling it “really a profound change. Tesla becomes more than a sort of vehicle and battery manufacturing company, at that point.”

Uber and Lyft shares fell as much as 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively, in early trading Thursday.