As the dust settles on the 2024 election cycle, and the scope of Republican successes come into view, some observers are drawing a predictable conclusion: If voters backed GOP candidates in such large numbers, it must be because the electorate agrees with the party on the major issues of the day.
Mark Penn, a former adviser to Bill and Hillary Clinton, for example, published a flawed election assessment to social media, which began, âAmerica is a center right country at heart. Only 25 per cent are liberal and the other 75 per cent wonât be ruled by the 25.â
At a superficial level, I can appreciate how some arrive at conclusions like these. If most voters supported Donald Trump and Republican congressional candidates, the argument goes, then it stands to reason that voters prefer conservative ideas to progressive ideas.
But a closer look at some of the election results suggest the ideological lines arenât nearly that clean. Trump and his party, for example, championed private school vouchers. But as The New York Times reported, voters in three states â including two red states where Trump won easily â rejected voucher schemes.
In Kentucky, nearly two-thirds of voters defeated a proposal to allow state tax dollars to fund private and charter schools. In Nebraska, 57 percent of voters approved a ballot initiative that repealed a small program intended to give low-income families tax dollars to pay for private-school tuition. In Colorado, votes are still being counted. But it looks likely that voters have narrowly rejected a broadly worded ballot measure that would have established a âright to school choice,â including in private schools and home-school settings.
Note, Nebraska voters backed the GOP ticket by more than 20 points. In Kentucky, the margin was more than 30 points. But those same voters nevertheless took a good look at one of the Republican Partyâs top educational priorities and said, âNo thanks.â
Whatâs more, it wasnât just vouchers. Voters in 10 states considered abortion rights initiatives this year, and they passed in seven â including in some states Trump carried. (In Florida, a majority of voters supported an abortion rights measure, but it wasnât a large enough majority to pass.)
In ruby-red Missouri, where Republicans such as Trump and Sen. Josh Hawley won easily, voters also easily approved measures to raise the minimum wage and require employers to prove paid sick-leave. Voters in Alaska, which also supported the GOP ticket by a wide margin, did the same thing, increasing the stateâs minimum wage to $15 per hour and requiring employers to provide paid sick leave.
A few weeks before Election Day, YouGov conducted an interesting survey in which it asked respondents for their opinions about Trumpâs and Kamala Harrisâ policy priorities â except the twist was that participants werenât told which policies were associated with which candidates.
The results were remarkable: Harrisâ agenda was far more popular than Trumpâs, but many people had no idea that the Democratâs priorities were, in fact, her priorities.
Asked what they wanted, voters backed Harrisâ vision. Asked who they wanted, voters backed the candidate offering the opposite of her vision.
To be sure, thereâs room for a broader conversation about why many Americans who support progressive policies end up also supporting candidates whoâll reject those same progressive policies. But on a variety of key fronts, itâs nevertheless true that a true center-right nation, filled with an electorate where conservatism was ascendent, probably wouldnât have backed quite so many progressive ballot measures.
This article was originally published on MSNBC.com
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