Why has Justin Trudeau resigned – and what’s next for Canada?

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said he will resign, amid mounting dissent from within his Liberal Party.

His announcement on Monday follows a swirl of speculation over his political future following public spats with former allies, a no-confidence motion that was called for later in January and falling poll numbers.

Trudeau resigned before the Liberal Party’s national caucus on Wednesday.

Here’s what you need to know about Trudeau’s resignation, what led to it, and what this means for Canada.

Who is Trudeau?

Trudeau, 53, swept to power in 2015 and led the Liberals to two more ballot box victories in 2019 and 2021.

The eldest son of the charismatic former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, who died in 2000, Justin Trudeau came late to politics after working as a snowboard instructor, bartender, bouncer and teacher.

He was first elected to the House of Commons in 2008 to represent a working-class Montreal neighbourhood.

He overhauled the Senate with the aim of making it less political and more transparent by ending partisan appointments and creating an independent, merit-based selection process.

He also signed a new trade deal with the United States and introduced a carbon tax to reduce Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions during his first two terms as prime minister.

The father of three also legalised cannabis, held a public inquiry into missing and murdered Indigenous women and passed legislation permitting medically assisted suicide.

How did we get here?

Trudeau’s popularity has waned in recent months, with his government narrowly surviving a series of no-confidence votes and critics calling for his resignation.

He had pledged to stay on to guide the Liberals to elections but has faced further pressure from incoming US President Donald Trump, who has threatened a 25-percent tariff on Canadian goods.

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland quit in December after disagreeing with Trudeau over how to respond to Trump’s apparent plan, in the first open dissent against the prime minister within his cabinet.

In a post on X, Freeland said she was leaving after Trudeau asked her to step down as finance minister. She cited disagreements with the prime minister, including how to handle Trump’s tariff threat and “‘America first’ economic nationalism”.

Since then, an increasing number of Liberal parliamentarians, alarmed by a series of gloomy polls, have publicly urged Trudeau to quit.

What happens next?

[Note for Editor on shift: Add a line here on whether Trudeau will continue as PM in a caretaker capacity, or whether someone else is taking over in an interim capacity.]

As for the Liberals, Trudeau’s departure leaves the party without a permanent head at a time when polls suggest that they will badly lose to the opposition Conservatives in an election that must be held by late October.

The Liberals will need to set up a special leadership convention to choose their next head.

The challenge for the party is that these conventions usually take months to arrange and if an election does occur before then, the Liberals would be in the hands of a prime minister not chosen by members.

This has never happened in Canada. The Liberals could try to run a shorter convention than usual, but this might prompt protests from candidates who feel this places them at a disadvantage.

Who are some potential candidates for Liberal Party chief?

Traditionally, a politician who takes over as interim leader after the PM’s resignation does not then run as a candidate to lead the party. That limits who Trudeau could hand over to.

Here are some of the politicians widely touted as potential contenders for the Liberal Party’s top job.

• Mark Carney: An economist and banker who served as former governor of the Bank of Canada, he has been advising the Liberal government on economic matters.
• Francois-Philippe Champagne: The minister of innovation, science and industry since 2021, he was the minister of foreign affairs before that.
• Chrystia Freeland: She is the MP for University-Rosedale, Ontario, and former deputy prime minister. A newly outspoken critic of Trudeau, she has been regarded as a credible and stable alternative to his leadership. In polls, she fares the best among Liberal politicians before elections.
• Melanie Joly: The current minister of foreign affair, Joly has been quite prominent on the international stage and will be tasked with handling Trump-related issues when he takes office. She has been a staunch supporter of Trudeau.
• Dominic LeBlanc: Seen as a close ally of Trudeau, he was appointed finance minister after Freeland’s departure.

How does Trump figure in all of this?

The US president-elect has threatened to impose sweeping tariffs on the United States’s three largest trading partners – Canada, Mexico and China – as soon as he takes office on January 20.

“Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long-simmering problem,” Trump said in a November post on his social media platform Truth Social.

“We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!”

Trudeau travelled to Florida in November to meet with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate in a bid to head off a trade war.

But the US president-elect has since also landed humiliating blows against Trudeau on social media, repeatedly calling him “governor” of Canada and declaring that the US’s northern neighbour becoming the 51st US state is a “great idea”.

Who is Pierre Poilievre?

He’s the man widely expected to become prime minister after Canada’s next election.

In recent days, Trudeau has trailed the Conservative Party chief by 20 points in public opinion polls.

Poilievre is not known for pulling his punches. He has called Montreal Mayor Valerie Plante “incompetent”, New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh a “sellout” and Trudeau “weak” and a “wacko”.

The latter insult saw him temporarily kicked out of the House of Commons for “unparliamentary language” in April. Debates in the Canadian Parliament are usually staid but have become more tense and animated of late.

Like Trump, Poilievre is also a fan of short catchy phrases to encapsulate his political messages: “Axe the tax” in reference to a federal carbon tax, or “Justinflation” – a portmanteau to blame the prime minister for inflation.

Much like Trump, he also likes to describe himself as a victim of mistreatment by elites and traditional media.

He also has low support among women, another similarity with Trump.

In 2022, when he fought for the leadership of the country’s main opposition Conservatives, the career politician with 20 years of experience was nonetheless seen as an outsider, but drew large crowds at his rallies.

Born in Calgary, Poilievre was raised by an adoptive family. He developed a passion for politics at an early age and won a prize during his university studies for an essay on what he would do if he were prime minister.

With polls showing he is likely to win in the next election, he promises to put “Canada first!” – a slogan akin to Trump’s own “America first!”

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