Republicans still stuck on how to carry out Trump’s agenda

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Congressional Republicans are all over the place on how to enact Donald Trump’s border and tax plans. They may need Trump to break the logjam — for good, this time.

For a few hours over the weekend, it appeared Trump had made a choice in Congress’ impasse over his agenda, seeming to side with the House’s preference for one big catch-all party-line rather than the Senate’s two-step strategy. Then the president-elect made another media appearance on Monday morning that revealed he doesn’t feel that strongly about the whole row, “as long as we get something passed as quickly as possible.”

Trump’s ambivalence effectively threw the matter back to House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune to figure out. And it’s a less esoteric problem than it looks: Until the House and Senate can agree on a shared blueprint, they’ll keep losing time to accomplish the new administration’s biggest goals.

Republicans are already behind their 2017 pace when it comes to preparing for party-line legislation that can dodge a filibuster.

“We still need a plan,” said Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, the top tax writer in his chamber, who is doing as much advance legwork as he can to prepare for debate over extending the GOP’s 2017 tax cuts. (He is officially neutral on whether to write one or two bills, for the record.)

At the moment, party leaders are plotting out different scenarios, quietly tinkering with potential legislation and preparing for a laborious effort. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, R-Wyo., said Republicans will meet soon with Trump to hash out the matter.

And unless one path can win the day, Trump will take office with Congress still stuck in the mud.

“We’ve just got to just get together and start doing it, but we’ve got to communicate. You know, we didn’t communicate on that immigration bill,” Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., told Semafor, referring to the bipartisan border deal that Trump ended up opposing and killing in Congress last year.

“That turned into a disaster.”

Know More

The GOP debate over how to act on border security and prevent Trump’s first-term tax cuts from expiring is a case study in how the congressional process affects legislative success. Budget committees first have to design the party’s plans to conform to strict rules in order to avoid a Democratic filibuster in the Senate; it’s a task that requires close coordination between the two chambers.

Despite Trump’s second win being far less surprising, that coordination hasn’t exactly materialized yet. Back in 2017, both chambers of Congress passed budgets that set up a party-line effort to repeal Obamacare before Trump was even sworn in.

But eight years later, Senate Republicans are still laying the groundwork for launching a two-part, border-then-taxes GOP agenda, according to people familiar with their plan.

Thune devised that plan in December, getting buy-in from many senators, as well as some Trump allies and top aides. House members and other senators are wary of that strategy, however, arguing that a delay in taking up tax cuts — which are a higher priority for Congress — would put those cuts at risk of failing in a closely divided House.

Thune’s No. 4 Senate GOP leader Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., said a key factor is “whatever the House thinks it can pass.” She said she could support either a one- or two-bill plan.

“The question is: Which strategy has a higher probability of success?” said Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind. “I personally don’t have strong views on that. I’m inclined to follow our own leader, John Thune.”

Trump is expected to hold a series of meetings with lawmakers in the coming days as Johnson, Thune and the White House attempt to agree on one broad approach. If they ultimately gravitate to a one-bill strategy, it’s likely to take well into the spring to pass.

A border-only bill, the Senate GOP thinking goes, could pass by February or March.

The View From The Border-First Republicans

Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., is still aligned with Thune’s two-bill plan, arguing that quick movement on immigration would be better for national security.

“I’m in the camp of cutting taxes and border security. But the threat levels I see, I think it would be smart to increase military spending and give the money Trump needs to deport people and secure the border early on,” Graham said.

Barrasso said on Monday after a Republican leadership meeting that the two-part strategy “makes the president happy, it makes the base happy, and improves, clearly, the security in the nation.”

But he acknowledged the “House is afraid they can’t get two [bills] passed,” and Graham also said more discussions are needed.

Burgess’s view

Just a few weeks ago, Trump dismantled weeks of work on a government spending bill in a single social media post. The same thing could happen, seemingly at any moment, to the GOP’s planned agenda on border security and taxes.

If Trump continues his relatively neutral stance, Johnson and Thune will have to work it out among themselves. But even though each GOP leader attended the other chamber’s recent retreat to try to get in sync, the president-elect’s unclear position is making that job harder.

Perhaps Republicans’ impending meetings with Trump will put the argument behind them.

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