I don’t know about you, but I’m tired.
It was a long season. Think about the story arcs we watched unfold over the last four months. Cincinnati (yet again) opened their season with a devastating loss and ended it with Joe Burrow in the MVP conversation. Kevin O’Connell saved Sam Darnold’s career. Saquon Barkley nearly hurdled his way into the history books. All the while, we had to process every piece of data available to come out on top of our fantasy football leagues. Wanting to take a well-deserved break would make sense.
However, let’s take one last look at the season.
The playoffs, coaching cycle and the draft will hurl more news at us so we can focus on the next year of action. It’d be easy to get swept up in the hype of new situations. Recency bias will help set the early-offseason market. Regardless, these top storylines from 2024 should set you up for another offseason of drafting.
The 2024 WR class will be fun to watch in Year 2
There’s no question that the latest crop of receivers made an impact. Malik Nabers is already setting records for the Giants. After averaging over 100 yards per game in his final five games, Brian Thomas Jr. will make the Jaguars’ HC vacancy all the more appealing. But the ’24 class wasn’t limited to just the headliners. There are a few others I’ll want on my teams for 2025, but let’s start with the two guys we’ll be watching over the next couple of weeks during the NFL playoffs.
Jalen McMillan was the last of the vaunted Washington Huskies to come off the board, and his role alongside Mike Evans and Chris Godwin capped his early-season upside. But McMillan walked into a 70.0% route rate in his Week 12 return from a hamstring injury. He was at or above 20.0% of Baker Mayfield’s targets in three of his last five games. And, of course, his five-game streak of finding the end zone will stay on everyone’s mind throughout the summer.
But let’s keep in mind that Mike Evans will be 32 by the start of the season (or headed to Canton if he decides to retire), and Chris Godwin will be a free agent. One or neither could be there by training camp. We should expect the Bucs’ front office to take some swings at the position. However, after leading the Bucs’ pass-catching corps in YAC per reception (3.1) while primarily playing on the perimeter (72.8% snap rate out wide), McMillan should be a staple of Tampa’s offense next season.
I can make the same case for Xavier Worthy.
Sure, touchdowns in back-to-back contests make any player interesting. But the Chiefs add an extra element of intrigue. Their 2.3 offensive TDs per week over their final six games sat below the league average (2.5). The Raiders were the second team all season to push Patrick Mahomes into throwing for more than 300 yards. Also, all eyes were on his ankle entering the week. Consequently, it was easy to miss a change in Worthy’s workload.
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Target Share: 11.0% (Weeks 9-12), 22.2% (Weeks 13-17)
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Targets per Route Run: 12.0%, 24.9%
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Air Yards per Target: 14.2, 6.0
Leave it to Andy Reid to figure out how best to maximize someone like Worthy. Instead of pinning the rookie to the boundary (and letting him drift out of bounds in critical situations), his snaps from the slot have steadily ticked up over the last month. Against the Texans alone, he ran 56.4% of his routes from the inside. The adjustment has dropped his receiving aDOT, but he can show off his speed with the ball already in his hands. He slid through Houston’s secondary for 8.1 yards after the catch per reception. It’s part of why his consecutive 11-target games don’t come off as an aberration. Plus, the Chiefs’ receiving group will be one to watch during the offseason.
Rumors about Travis Kelce retiring aside, Marquise Brown and DeAndre Hopkins are unrestricted free agents after this year. We won’t see much of Rashee Rice until late summer. Worthy’s continued development and improved rapport with Mahomes are the biggest takeaways from his rookie campaign. Even if most of the supporting cast returns for another ride, Worthy will have the energy and reps to carry you through another regular season.
Stars who we could see on new teams
Even if you want to take a break from football, the league won’t let you rest long after the Super Bowl. The new year starts on March 12, opening up the free-agent signing period that will keep us talking until the draft. And given the list of available players, our outlook for entire franchises might shift depending on where a few of them land.
Take Miami’s passing game, for example.
Indicating you want to leave and changing your social media picture to a WR who also forced their way out of town is a choice. But after a disappointing season, I can (partially) understand Tyreek Hill’s emotions.
Just last year, Hill was on pace for 2,000 yards before an ankle injury ruined his regular season and hampered him in the playoffs. He was third amongst all WRs in targets and wound up with his fourth-consecutive 1,000-yard outing. However, by most measures, Hill had one of his worst years as a pro in 2024.
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Receiving Yards: 959, 3rd-fewest
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Yards per Route Run: 1.75, Career-low
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Receiving Touchdowns: 6, T-Career-low
Sure, you can chalk up some of the drop-offs to QB play. Tua Tagovailoa was out for six games. The Dolphins scored 20 points or fewer in every game without Tagovailoa. But even in the two months after his return, Hill barely had an edge as the WR1. Jonnu Smith (20.4% target share) and De’Von Achane (17.9%) had stepped into the ancillary receiving roles Miami needed as its running game continued to flounder (31st in EPA per Rush). Even worse for fantasy, both had more red-zone catches than Hill. Regardless, Hill’s situation is the perfect example of how we’ll have to redefine our expectations.
To be fair to ‘Fins’ fans, Hill’s agent has been on damage control. The star WR is just frustrated. But at the end of the day, he’s committed to being in Miami. Coincidentally, this sentiment does come hours after a recording of Hill “quitting” during the game started making the round on social media. However, at least Hill’s camp and Miami’s front office are trying to mend fences. But still, this leaves us with at least a hint of uncertainty heading into the offseason.
Fantasy production is the summation of talent and situation. At 3.82 YPRR on 167 targets, Hill had both in 2023. He justified his cost in real life and fantasy. Without the gift of youth (or a sunnier disposition) on his side, Hill’s potentially new situation requires more scrutiny before earmarking him as an early-round selection.
However, I can’t say the same for one of Cincinnati’s receivers, who may be in a similar situation.
If Tee Higgins winds up off the Bengals’ roster, he left Paycor Stadium as a king. Despite missing five games, the former second-rounder set career highs in targets (9.1) and receptions (6.1) per game, along with a personal-best total TDs (10). But Cincinnati’s WR1B wasn’t a part of the offensive triumvirate by default. Joe Burrow was well aware of Higgins’ absences throughout the season.
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Passing Yards per Game: 267.0 (in games w/out Higgins), 298.6 (w/ Higgins)
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EPA per Dropback: 0.07, 0.19
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Yards per Drive: 33.8, 35.1
Fortunately for the team and fans alike, Burrow has made no bones about his desire to keep the core together. Higgins now shares an agent with Ja’Marr Chase. The stars are aligning for Cincinnati to make another run, but WR-needy squads with money to spend (e.g., Patriots, Commanders) may have made Week 18 the last we see of the elite trio.
But I have a feeling we’ll be seeing this RB out in L.A. for at least another year.
Raise your hand if you doubted J.K. Dobbins’s potential as a contributor to any team after yet another season-ending lower-body injury.
Don’t worry. My hand is up, too.
Yes, I figured with HC John Harbaugh bringing in Greg Roman as his OC, the Chargers would focus on their ground game. Naturally, the byproduct of that type of philosophy would be plenty of carries for … someone. So, I bet against the guy who tore his Achilles tendon the prior year and stashed Kimani Vidal and Gus Edwards on my benches.
Dobbins made me pay for passing him up.
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Explosive Rush Rate: 9.2%, 9th
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Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 17.2%, 23rd
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Adjusted Yards After Contact per Attempt: 3.2, 25th
Dobbins’ explosive rush rate stat still boggles my mind. The former Buckeye posted a 19.6% forced missed tackle rate for the Ravens back in ’22. So, him still being able to show off his contact balance and pick up yards after contact wasn’t much of a surprise. But his breakaway speed appeared to be on the decline while he was still in Baltimore. And yet, on a per-game basis, he had more runs of 10 yards or more than Bijan Robinson (2.1 to 2.0). Even after an IR stint, Dobbins was able to notch new milestones in rushing yards and was a top-five pass-blocking RB per PFF.
Drafting RBs in 2025
If you leaned into RBs to kick off your draft, you were likely the envy of your league. Unfortunately for the nerds, running backs did matter, with two totaling more than 1,900 yards on the ground in the same season (the only time in NFL history this has happened). Nevertheless, it’s important to understand why before we file into the draft lobbies for 2025. The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen pointed out there were reasons for the shift, and a couple of his takeaways are notable:
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From 2016 to 2021, defenses lined up in nickel (five defensive backs) on 57% of snaps. From 2022 to 2024, defenses lined up in nickel on 64 % of snaps.
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We only have a two-high rate (percentage of plays defenses play with two deep safeties) available dating back to 2019, but it has increased every year and is the highest it’s ever been this season. The main reason for the increase in two-high usage is the popularity of Vic Fangio’s and Mike Macdonald’s defensive systems.
On the one hand, seeing good teams exploit defensive trends is good! You’d want to see your favorite coach or coordinator find counterpunches. However, it’s not like the trend has taken the league by storm.
More Fantasy Football analysis
RBs, as a whole, averaged 21.7 attempts per game. Last year, they were at 21.6 totes a contest. In ’22, it was 21.8. You can see the static nature of play-calling here. But what has changed is the efficiency of the called runs. EPA per rush is up to -0.06 after holding at -0.10 for three straight years. Explosive rush rate jumped from 6.8% to 7.6%. For some teams, the counterpunches were actually knockout blows. Accordingly, early mocks have predicted a repeat in rushing performance, with 10 RBs featured in the first two rounds. However, I’m not ready to completely lean into the position with my expensive picks.
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Number of top-24 RBs with a Non-Early-Round ADP: 7 (2024), 9 (2023), 7 (2022)
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Number of top-24 RBs with a +10.0% Target Share: 12, 13, 10
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Number of top-24 RBs with at least 50.0% of their Team’s Carries: 17, 12, 15
If the last few seasons have taught us anything, it’s that we can find value later. A split backfield may condense into one guy. Increased usage during the season might be the proof that a coach needs to promote a player to the starter role. Identifying who’s likeliest to earn touches in any offense has been the key to filling out your RB position in fantasy. So, instead of going with the crowd, compare each rusher to other players at different positions before drafting them.
Bounceback offenses to target.
I tend to take a top-down approach to drafting players. For instance, I called the Lions “America’s team” back in Week 7, and they closed out the year as the top-ranked unit in offensive points per game (32.4). More points typically means you can support more fantasy players. So, I’ll break ties in favor of guys on better teams.
But I get it. Things change from year to year. Anyway, if I had to bet on which squads might have a better 2025 than ’24, I’d start with the Panthers.
If Barkley’s “Backwards Hurdle” was THE moment of the season, Bryce Young’s “no-look TD” celly comes in as a close second. Think about where Young was at the start of the season. He wasn’t responsible for a Panthers’ touchdown until the end of October. But when Carolina turned back to the former Alabama signal-caller, it was like he was fresh out of college.
Critically, Young and HC Dave Canales have shown proof of concept for the offense. Since Young’s reinstatement as the starter, the Panthers are right behind the Vikings at 23.1 PPG. So, if we have more confidence that the passing game can generate more points, we can add their skill players to our pool of options. Accordingly, as Adam Thielen contemplates retirement, Jalen Coker should be sliding up “sleeper lists” for 2025. Coker was the only other Carolina WR with a slot snap rate above 50.0%, was second in explosive play rate and would take over Thielen’s role should he hang up his cleats.
Both Coker and Young should be mid-to-late-round favorites, but the Falcons, in the same Week 18 game, made their case for gamers to keep them in mind over the offseason.
The late-season QB switch resulted in the Falcons missing out on the playoffs. But I won’t put the failure on Michael Penix Jr. He had another ricochet interception, resulting in Young’s game-tying TD four plays later. But Atlanta ran more plays (77) and executed the most dropbacks in a game (40) since Week 13. I realize we’re only working with a two-game sample, so the takeaway for 2025 is simple.
Bonus: Drake London should be in the Top 12 WR discussion
He doesn’t need to be WR5 or flirt with first-round value. But averaging 15.5 targets per game is significant. Skyrocketing to 3.81 YPRR should warrant our attention. So, while most will point to Bijan Robinson as the primary beneficiary of Penix’s first full year at the helm, the draft discount on London will be the way to play it over the summer.
I’m worried about these teams for 2025
The flip side of the “teams that can bounce back” coin is the group of squads with uncertain futures.
I mean, let’s be honest: how many people without a 713 or 281 area code are excited to see the Texans play this weekend? But, sticking with Houston for a bit, they’re one of the offenses I’ll be wary about targeting until we get news on their offseason moves.
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Passing Yards per Game (first five weeks): 288.8 (2023), 260.0 (2024)
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EPA per Dropback: 0.05, 0.02
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Passing Success Rate: 46.1%, 40.3%
I highlighted the first five weeks for a specific reason. It was the only time Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell were (relatively) healthy. Adding a premiere route runner like Diggs was supposed to get ahead of any “sophomore slump” concerns for C.J. Stroud. Houston had the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year on a coveted rookie deal. It was time to load up the personnel cupboard. And yet, Stroud’s protection made his second season about as painful as it looked at times.
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QB Hits Allowed: 113, 5th-most
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Total Pressures Allowed: 243, 7th-most
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Pass Block Win Rate: 57.0%, 8th-lowest
Nico Collins is yet to play more than 15 games in a season. Stefon Diggs will be an injured 31-year-old free agent. Tank Dell hurt more parts of his knee than I knew a human being had. Oh, and the Texans don’t have a lot of cap space. The narrow needle we have to thread for pocket passers already has me shying away from Stroud. However, the health and skill level of his surrounding talent will limit my Texans’ exposure to Collins and Joe Mixon without some positive adjustments.
The same goes for Miami.
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Yards per Drive (w/ Tagovailoa active): 36.1 (2023), 35.3
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EPA per Play: 0.07, 0.04
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Offensive Points per Game: 27.5, 24.1
I sampled the games with Tagovailoa on the field, so any changes at QB wouldn’t dilute the results. In either case, their W-L record reflects the metrics. But this isn’t to highlight any failures in Tagovailoa. In fact, he’s been more efficient and accurate this year than in ’23. Similar to Houston, Miami’s line has taken a step back, but not in the way you’d think.
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Run Block Win Rate: 70.0%, 7th-lowest
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Adjusted Yards Before Contact per Rush: 0.73, 7th-fewest
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Rushing Success Rate: 42.1%, 9th-lowest
HC Mike McDaniel runs a complementary offense. The running game plays off the passing attack and vice versa. Last season, De’Von Achane led the league in rushing yards over expected per attempt. Both his and Raheem Mostert’s contributions, combined with explosive plays from Tagovailoa to Hill or Jaylen Waddle, were a tough combination to handle for most teams. However, the lack of a running game in ’24 has put more pressure on the QB.
Hill’s potential departure aside, the uncertainty in offensive identity is worth monitoring over the offseason. We went from Mostert scoring 13 touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line in 2023 to Tagovailoa throwing 14 scores from the same area this year. If we’re going to push guys like Jonnu Smith into the upper echelons of their positional ranks, the Dolphins will need to continue their pass-happy ways in 2025.
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