What prison life will look like for Southport killer Axel Rudakubana

What prison life will look like for Southport killer Axel Rudakubana

Yesterday, the full horror of the atrocities committed by Axel Rudakubana in Southport last summer was revealed at Liverpool Crown Court. As he was 17 at the time of the murders, the judge was unable to impose a whole-life order befitting his crimes. Instead, he was sentenced to life imprisonment with a minimum term of 52 years. He will be 70 by the time he is considered for release, however, the judge added that “I consider at this time it’s likely he will never be released and will be in custody for all his life”.

So what will prison life be like for Rudakubana? His case is unique in several ways, owing to the horrific nature of his offences, his young age and his capacity for extreme violence. According to Ministry of Justice statistics, there are around 3,000 prisoners of Rudakubana’s age (18 to 20) in the UK in total, and only a tiny proportion of those people will be serving life sentences.

The first issue, therefore, will be where to put Rudakubana. Typically, a young man his age would initially be held in a Young Offender Institution (YOI), which houses prisoners aged 15 to 21. Several YOIs are part of adult prisons, so, when a prisoner turns 21, they are transferred to the adult estate. However, due to the severity of Rudakubana’s crimes and his capacity for extreme violence, it is likely he will be sent directly to a Category A adult prison, such as Whitemoor, Long Lartin or Belmarsh – where he was being held before sentencing.

While there has been public outcry over the fact that he escaped a whole-life order for his crimes (as well as stabbing three young girls to death at a Taylor Swift-themed dance class last July, he also pleaded guilty to a range of charges including the attempted murders of eight children and two adults, producing a biological toxin, ricin, and the possession of an Al-Qaeda training manual– an offence under the Terrorism Act), Rudakubana’s sentence is unusually long and almost unprecedented for someone of his age.

Aaron Campbell, who, in 2018, raped and murdered six-year-old Alesha Sarah MacPhail, is the only recent point of comparison. He was 16 at the time and was handed a life sentence with a minimum term of 27 years, later reduced to 24 on appeal, and was held at HMP & YOI Polmont – the largest young offender institution in Scotland – until he turned 21.

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Due to the nature of his crimes and the likelihood he will have a price on his head, it is not thought that Rudakubana will receive the same treatment. “It is extremely unlikely he will be sent to a YOI. Even the most secure, which is probably HMP Aylesbury, would not be capable of managing the risk he presents,” says Ian Acheson, a former prison governor and senior adviser at the Counter Extremism Project, describing the issue of where to house him as a “massive headache” for the prison service. “My guess would be they will send him to an adult prison first of all – he will probably be sent to the high-security and long-term prison estate, and I would expect him to be segregated until they have worked out a risk-management plan,” he says.

If his behaviour cannot be controlled, one option could be to transfer him to a Close Supervision Centre (CSC), described by the previous prisons inspector as “the most restrictive… with limited stimuli and human contact.” These specialist units were established in 1998 and are located within six of the UK’s high-security prisons to handle the most violent and disruptive male prisoners. “They are reserved for people who present the most danger to others and there’s a high staff to prisoner ratio,” Acheson explains.

Another option in the longer term is a possible transfer to a secure hospital. “He has been sentenced as a criminal, which is important – the judge has determined that he is fit to stand trial,” Acheson says. “The inference of all that is that he knew what he was doing. But he is clearly a deeply, deeply warped and disturbed individual.”

Regardless, Rudakubana’s first weeks and months in custody will be lonely and isolated; as equally pressing to whatever risk he poses to those around him is the risk to his own physical safety. From the minute he arrives, there will be a target on his back due to the horrendous nature of his offences.

“In the hierarchy of prisons, people who committed crimes against children are at the bottom,” Acheson says. “He will be a target for retribution and will have to be kept completely separate from other offenders until they can decide how his behaviour will be handled.”

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Within weeks of being jailed in Belmarsh prison, Urfan Sharif, who was sentenced to life imprisonment for the murder of his ten-year-old daughter Sara Sharif, was attacked in a cell by two other inmates. It will likely be a long time before Rudakubana is allowed to mix with the mainstream prison population, so his only interaction will be with staff and his personal officer.

Urfan Sharif

Urfan Sharif, father of 10-year-old Sara Sharif, was jailed for life for her murder with minimum term of 40 years – PA

In the long term, it is in the interest of prison staff to try to keep him occupied, either through further education (the Open University is an option for some inmates), training, or some kind of employment. Like any other prisoner, he will have access to fresh air, a minimum of two hours per week of physical exercise, plus a TV and library services, even if he is being held in segregation.

The biggest challenge will be managing his behaviour when he is looking at spending the next 52 years (at the very least) behind bars. “It’s very difficult managing people who have nothing to lose,” says Acheson. “Helping people manage exceptionally long periods in custody is very tricky but, generally speaking, people are less likely to act out if they are fully engaged. You’ve got to consider what happens when he has no hope left for anything – not just release, but for anything in life.”

That could, Acheson says, result in him taking his own life or make it more likely that he will act out violently towards someone else. “There are specialist programmes for ‘lifers,’ which he may end up in, where the prison regime is tailored to that,” he says. The bottom line is that Rudakubana shouldn’t expect to ever be released. “He’s not coming out,” states Acheson. “Except in a box.”

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