This article is the second in a weekly series in February highlighting the growing influence and popularity of cryptocurrency-based ETFs.
Traders are pouring money into bets on crypto ETF approvals this year, with prediction markets showing high confidence in multiple digital assets gaining regulatory green-lights.
The betting activity reflects market expectations as the Securities and Exchange Commission considers a wave of new cryptocurrency investment products, suggesting traders believe regulatory barriers may ease in the coming months.
According to data from Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, traders see an 85% chance of a Solana ETF gaining approval in 2025, though near-term odds for July 31 approval sit lower at 39%.
These predictions come amid broader changes in the crypto ETF landscape, with the SEC recently acknowledging multiple new applications and showing increased openness to digital asset investment products, based on regulatory filings.
For Litecoin, the gap between time frames appears smaller, with a 79% probability for 2025 approval compared to 44% by July 31, according to the Polymarket data.
XRP shows a similar divergence in trader confidence, with 80% odds for 2025 approval versus 40% for July 31, highlighting how betting patterns favor year-end over midyear approvals.
Memecoins face a more uncertain path, with Dogecoin ETF approval odds at 54% for 2025 and dropping to 29% for July 31, while Pepecoin remains a long shot at just 7% for the year, Polymarket data show.
Read More: Crypto-Focused ETF Applications Surge as SEC Lightens Up
Trading volumes on these prediction markets indicate serious money backing these bets, with Solana ETF markets showing a combined $267,000 in volume, while XRP markets have attracted a combined $137,000 in bets, according to Polymarket. Despite lower approval odds, Dogecoin ETF markets lead in trading volume with $450,000 in combined bets.
Market activity shows distinct patterns across different cryptocurrency categories, with an unexpected twistâwhile traders assign higher approval odds to established blockchain platforms, the memecoin Dogecoin has attracted the highest trading volume. This suggests a disconnect between predicted outcomes and trader interest, particularly in more speculative assets.
The stark contrast between July and year-end odds suggests traders expect most approvals to come in the latter half of 2025, with probabilities nearly doubling when extending beyond the summer deadline.
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