Connect with us

World

A weary West may push Ukraine to the negotiating table with Russia

News Agencies

Published

on

Zelensky’s demands certainly have merit but are devoid of realism. None of them will be agreed to by Putin, who has triumphantly annexed four territories, of which two, Donestk and Luhansk, are Russian-speaking and have been controlled by Moscow-backed separatists since 2014.

It would be in Ukraine’s interest to withdraw its claim to these territories, for the sake of lasting peace. Instead, defeating Russia and humiliating Putin would cause more significant harm; as former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger stated, “it could worsen Europe’s long-term stability”.

Advertisement
‘Not humiliated,’ says Russia as Ukrainian soldiers retake Kherson amid celebrations

01:44

‘Not humiliated,’ says Russia as Ukrainian soldiers retake Kherson amid celebrations

In conjunction with this, there are emerging signs from Ukraine’s supporters in the West that there can be no military solution to the war, only a perpetual stalemate. If peace talks were to begin, there would be less risk of donor fatigue in the US and EU.

Washington has underpinned the collective galvanisation of the West and its defence of Ukraine’s sovereignty. Still, it is also facing a logistical conundrum with the depletion of some ammunition reserves to dangerously low levels. Between March and October, the US supplied Ukraine with some 900,000 howitzer artillery rounds, yet production capacity has stayed around peacetime levels of 14,400 rounds per month.

Even with an expected increase in production to 36,000 rounds, the shortfall will take years to replenish and may cause the US operational setbacks if it were to be embroiled in a direct conflict.

Advertisement

Were Ukraine’s war with Russia the sole focus of the US, there would be less worry about munition levels. Yet the potential flashpoint of Taiwan (dependent on similar weapon systems) is bound to stretch current production capacities. In August, Taiwan had to seek alternatives when its order for self-propelled howitzer artillery systems, set for delivery in 2023, was pushed to 2026 due to supply chain stress.

Ukrainian servicemen fire a self-propelled howitzer artillery system on a frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine, on November 8. Photo: Reuters

Ukrainian servicemen fire a self-propelled howitzer artillery system on a frontline in Donetsk region, Ukraine, on November 8. Photo: Reuters

Observers may call for an increase in the peacetime production of munitions, but this overlooks the defence industrial base’s actual capacity. In World War I, for example, the US mobilised its output at the beginning of the conflict but did not reach a proficient capacity until the end of the war, relying heavily on the British and French to arm its soldiers.

Advertisement

Conversely, in World War II, the US was able to export its munitions to equip its allies because it had begun production years before.

It takes years to develop a sizeable inventory in a peacetime setting as overproduction is considered wasteful and maintenance costs can blow out budgets, drawing public scrutiny on military expenditure. As Russia has turned to Iran for military hardware, the US has looked to South Korea to supply 100,000 rounds of howitzer artillery to help ease supply chain issues.

Ukraine’s will to continue fighting and liberating territory is admirable. Unfortunately, this heroism on the front line is poorly aligned with a lack of wisdom from policymakers in Kyiv who fail to look beyond recovering physical territory.

General support is waning due to a global economy in downward spiral, the onset of an unforgiving winter, and a US worried about being battle-ready for the next major conflict. Kyiv needs to consider all stakeholders as this battle is not just about Ukraine any more, but the maintenance of the global order, of which it is now a beneficiary.

Sameed Basha is a defence and political analyst with a master’s degree in international relations from Deakin University, Australia

Advertisement

The news is published by EMEA Tribune & SCMP210520-twitter-verified-cs-70cdee.jpg (1500×750)

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Advertisement

Breaking News

Editor Pick’s

Latest Entertainment

Entertainment13 mins ago

Michelle Yeoh, Angela Bassett make Oscars history as 2023 nominations include major firsts

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once; Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Colin Farrell in The Banshees...

Entertainment56 mins ago

Austin Butler calls ‘Elvis’ Oscar nomination ‘bittersweet’ after Lisa Marie Presley’s death

Elvis star Austin Butler honors Lisa Marie Presley after first Oscar nomination. (Photo: Getty Images) As Elvis star Austin Butler...

Entertainment1 hour ago

Senators questioned Ticketmaster over competition in wake of Taylor Swift ticket debacle

WASHINGTON – Taylor Swift took center stage during the Senate’s Tuesday hearing, which examined the lack of competition within the...

Entertainment2 hours ago

Jamie Lee Curtis shares priceless reaction to 1st Oscar nomination: ‘This is what surprise looks like’

Jamie Lee Curtis wearing Stella McCartney poses on the red carpet during the Oscars arrivals at the 94th Academy Awards...

Entertainment3 hours ago

2023 biggest Oscar nomination snubs: Tom Cruise, Taylor Swift, James Cameron, Viola Davis and female directors

Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick; Viola Davis in The Woman King; Taylor Swift (Everett Collection/Getty) Would we have more...

Entertainment4 hours ago

Julian Sands’s family gives thanks for ‘heroic’ rescue efforts amid 11-day search

The family of Julian Sands is praising the “heroic” search efforts underway to find the missing actor. (Photo: REUTERS/Piroschka van...

Entertainment5 hours ago

Oscar nominations 2023: ‘Everything Everywhere’ leads with 11, Jamie Lee Curtis gets first nod

We don’t know how it plays elsewhere in the multiverse, but in this reality the Oscars really love “Everything Everywhere...

Entertainment5 hours ago

Who went home on ‘The Bachelor’? Find out didn’t get a rose from Zach Shallcross

Ever since Zach Shallcross chose to leave Season 19 of “The Bachelorette,” we’ve been eager to know: Did he find...

Advertisement

Latest Sports

Sports31 mins ago

Trump declares himself the winner of his own club championship – in the Trumpiest way ever

Trump announced on his social media platform that he won the Senior Club Championship at Trump International Golf Club in...

Sports1 hour ago

Ex-Bruins star Milan Lucic throws haymakers in epic fight vs. Mathieu Olivier

Milan Lucic is 34 years old but he's still the most powerful fighter in the NHL, and the former Bruins...

Sports2 hours ago

Tom Brady or Greg Olsen? Fox has a future decision to make on its No. 1 analyst

Greg Olsen has been excellent in the booth, but Fox isn't paying Tom Brady big money to be No. 2.

Sports2 hours ago

NFL power rankings: The legacy list

There are four teams left, and for 10 people tied to those teams, how the season's final three games play...

Sports2 hours ago

The Chiefs are now home dogs against Bengals

The weight on the Bengals bandwagon has led to a drastic shift in the title game odds, where Cincinnati is...

Sports3 hours ago

SOURCES: Jim Harbaugh reaches out to three potential QB coach candidates

Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh has reached out to multiple potential candidates for the open QB coach spot.

Sports3 hours ago

Knicks radio analyst Brendan Brown fired following harassment allegations

Brown has been with MSG since 2008 and as a full-time radio broadcaster since 2012.

Sports4 hours ago

NFL Power Rankings: The 10 players and coaches whose legacies will be shaped over rest of playoffs

Legacies will change over the next few weeks in the NFL playoffs.

Technology Hot News

Technology6 days ago

Led by "Amazon" and "Microsoft" .. the technology giants are planning to lay off 64,000 employees

After 10 years of driving the stock market bull run, big tech companies are racing to downsize staff to adapt...

Technology6 days ago

Apple introduces MacBooks with new M2 processors

Yesterday, Tuesday, Apple unveiled MacBooks powered by the new, faster “M2 Pro” and “M2 Max” processor chips, in a surprise...

Technology6 days ago

All you need to know about the upcoming Galaxy S23 phones from Samsung

Samsung has officially announced that the (Galaxy Unpacked 2023) event will be held this year on Wednesday, February 1, which...

Technology7 days ago

FTX Exchange Announces Hacking and Stolen $415 Million in Cryptocurrency

Bankrupt American cryptocurrency firm FTX announced today, Wednesday, that $415 million in cryptocurrency has been hacked and stolen from the...

Technology7 days ago

Because of a "fraudulent tweet"… Elon Musk's trial begins

Elon Musk's trial began Tuesday in San Francisco with the selection of jury members who will have to decide whether...

Technology7 days ago

An electric spoon replaces salt and spices, but with conditions

Experts have developed an electric spoon that is able to replace spices and flavors and affect the taste buds in...

Technology1 week ago

The biggest dangers of using tracking devices.. so you can escape?

If you spot an unknown Bluetooth tagging device, there are ways to disable the device so it can't track your...

Technology1 week ago

New Twitter.. For You tab to web version

The Twitter platform announced that it will bring the new tab (For You), which launched last Tuesday for iPhones and...

Advertisement