Analysis: Why October hero Walker Buehler was always likely to leave the

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 16: Walker Buehler #21 of the Los Angeles Dodgers tosses a ball. — Walker Buehler tosses a ball on the mound during his start in Game 3 of the NLCS against the Mets in New York in October. Buehler signed a one-year deal with the Red Sox on Monday. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

The moment was already destined for Dodgers lore.

Walker Buehler, arms extended, strutting off the Yankee Stadium mound, a World Series title having just been secured by his trademark knuckle-curveball.

Now, the scene will be a parting image for Buehler’s distinguished tenure with the club, too.

On Monday, Buehler agreed to a one-year, $21.05-million contract with the Boston Red Sox, as Yahoo Sports first reported, officially ending a seven-year run with the Dodgers that included tantalizing highs (two All-Star selections, two World Series titles and, from 2018-2021, the fourth-best ERA in the majors), injury-plagued lows (including two Tommy John surgeries that derailed his ascent as the Dodgers’ next great ace) and a fitting final act, with Buehler’s iconic save in Game 5 of the World Series proving to be his last game in a Dodgers uniform.

It’s a departure that, for most of this year, had been expected, as Buehler struggled mightily in the regular season returning from his second Tommy John procedure.

However, despite his 1-6 record and career-worst 5.38 ERA, Buehler sneaked into the Dodgers’ postseason rotation amid a rash of other pitching injuries and delivered in ways even he wasn’t fully expecting. Four shutout innings in a Game 3 win in the National League Championship Series. Five spotless frames in Game 3 of the Fall Classic. And then, on just one day of rest, a 16-pitch relief appearance to close out a championship.

For the first time in three years, flashes of Buehler’s once-dominant form returned.

And for a moment, a pathway for the impending free agent to re-sign in Los Angeles appeared to emerge.

“What Walker did, what he has done for us, what he did for us this year, his teammates, that does not go lost on us,” general manager Brandon Gomes said last month.

Alas, the chances of such a reunion were effectively dashed in the first week of the offseason, when the Dodgers decided not to extend a one-year, $21.05-million qualifying offer to the 30-year-old right-hander.

That move allowed Buehler to hit the open market without the burden of a draft-pick penalty. And, as the Dodgers looked elsewhere to shore up their rotation — they signed two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell to a $182-million contract and remain engaged in the sweepstakes for star 23-year-old Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki — it became clear Buehler was unlikely to fit in their 2025 plans.

“I think there’s no better way to go out if I do,” Buehler said on the eve of the Fall Classic, when asked about 2024 potentially being his final season with the Dodgers, “than after hopefully a successful World Series.”

The Dodgers’ decision to not offer Buehler a QO — which was for virtually the same amount he will reportedly receive from the Red Sox — was met with some surprise around the industry.

In a vacuum, Buehler’s regular-season performance might not have warranted such a payday. The bleak history of two-time Tommy John pitchers added risk as well.

Nonetheless, Buehler was perhaps the best homegrown success story of this era of Dodgers baseball, going from a first-round draft pick out of Vanderbilt in 2017 to an integral member of the club’s 2020 and 2024 championship teams.

This year’s October heroics had rekindled the fan base’s love of the ever-confident veteran pitcher, evidenced by the raucous reception he got at the team’s championship parade last month while donning the vintage jersey that Orel Hersisher — a longtime mentor of his within the organization — had worn in the 1988 World Series.

Walker Buehler, wearing an Orel Hershiser jersey, speaking at a lectern — Walker Buehler, wearing an Orel Hershiser jersey, speaks at the championship celebration at Dodger Stadium last month. (Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)

At various points leading up to this offseason, Buehler had expressed a desire to remain in Los Angeles, saying before the World Series that “I’m very happy to be a Los Angeles Dodger, and I would love to stay here for as long as they’ll have me.”

Even then, though, Buehler hinted that the team’s QO decision would likely dictate his chances of a return.

“The first step in all that stuff is on the team,” he said of his upcoming free agency. “And that will happen really quickly one way or the other.”

While the Dodgers remained open to bringing back Buehler even after declining to offer him a QO, market dynamics always appeared likely to instead result in a split. Because Beuhler didn’t receive a QO, other teams weren’t forced to surrender a draft pick to sign him. And as a talented arm with a sterling postseason track record, he became an intriguing option for fellow contenders looking to round out their rotations.

Where he might have been a superfluous signing for a Dodgers team that is already well past the highest luxury tax threshold, and will be getting Shohei Ohtani, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin back from injuries next season, Buehler might now be a missing piece for the playoff-hungry Red Sox, who finished last season five games out of the American League wild-card picture.

“The past couple months,” Buehler said amid his postseason resurgence, “I’ve kind of built my confidence up a little bit to the point that there’ll be some teams that would want me on their team. I feel like a major league starting pitcher, whether it’s here or elsewhere.”

On Monday, the latter officially became reality.

Walker Buehler is no longer a Dodger. His championship-clinching curveball will be the lasting memory of his tenure with the team.

“I played my whole career here, I love playing here,” Buehler said during the World Series. “I wouldn’t have had it any other way.”

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

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