In 2015, Russia waged its largest military campaign outside its borders since the Cold War, launching a sweeping air war to rescue Bashar al-Assad’s crumbling regime in Syria. Back then, Syrian rebels were closing in on the regime’s strongholds, even as Assad leaned heavily on Iran and Hezbollah for support in the years prior. Moscow’s intervention turned the tide, culminating in the recapture of the largest Syrian city of Aleppo and a fragile stability that has largely held since.
Until now.
This week, Syrian rebels mounted a stunning assault on regime positions in Aleppo and Idlib, unravelling nearly five years of hard-won stalemates in the north. Those frontlines, painstakingly secured by Russian firepower, now look perilously fluid. The assault raises urgent questions about the Assad regime’s durability and its allies’ ability to rescue it this time.
The challenges facing Assad and his backers in Russia and Iran are unprecedented. Moscow is bogged down in Ukraine, where a reinvigorated US-backed campaign has given Kyiv the green light to strike inside Russian territory. Iran, meanwhile, is grappling with a relentless Israeli campaign that has targeted its military networks and weakened its grip on Syria.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. The Assad regime faces a crisis that echoes the darkest days of the war, but with one stark difference: this time, the regime looks even weaker, and its allies are unable to come to its rescue. Years of economic collapse, internal fragmentation and the rise of unchecked militias have left Assad severely weakened. In many ways, the regime is now a hollow version of the one Russia and Iran fought to save in 2015.
By contrast, the rebels appear more disciplined and unified than ever. Under the command of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham – a former al-Qaeda affiliate that has since severed ties with the group, and even all but rooted it out – opposition forces have evolved into a well-organised military machine, better equipped to sustain a long fight. The regime, ironically, now looks more fragmented and chaotic than the rebels it once dismissed as disorganised insurgents.
The timing of this rebel campaign couldn’t be worse for Assad’s allies. Russia, stretched thin by its grinding war in Ukraine, is unlikely to redeploy significant forces to Syria. Its support, if it comes at all, will likely focus on safeguarding its naval bases along the Mediterranean and securing strategic areas in the Assad heartlands. In short: Russia will protect its interests, not Assad’s.
Iran, once the regime’s lifeline, is also under pressure. A relentless Israeli bombing campaign has decimated its military infrastructure in Syria, complicating Tehran’s ability to intervene on a large scale. While Iran is unlikely to abandon Assad entirely, its role may shift to fortifying key corridors – like the one connecting Damascus to the coast and the land bridge linking Iraq and Lebanon – rather than reversing rebel gains across the map.
Opposition forces in Syria advance within 1km of Aleppo’s outer neighbourhoods
Meanwhile, the ripple effects of this renewed conflict could destabilise Syria’s broader diplomatic landscape. Assad was on the verge of a breakthrough, with Gulf states normalising relations with Damascus and lobbying Washington to ease sanctions. That momentum now hangs in the balance.
For the United States, this shifting reality could force a rethink of its Syria policy. Washington has long oscillated between tacitly tolerating Assad’s rule and supporting a fragmented status quo, where Kurdish forces control the north-east and rebels hold out in the north-west. But a new possibility is emerging: pushing Assad’s regime to retreat further, creating conditions for refugees to return and reshaping Syria’s political map yet again.
The rebels’ gains, while significant, are unlikely to dislodge Assad from his core territories in Damascus and the coastal heartland. Yet the mere fact that these frontlines are shifting is a reminder that Syria’s war is far from over, and that the fragile order Russia and Iran worked so hard to impose is now under serious strain.
The weeks ahead will reveal whether Assad’s allies can patch together another rescue, or if Syria’s long-frozen conflict is about to thaw in ways that could reshape the Levant and the wider region for years to come.
Hassan Hassan is the founder and editor in chief of New Lines Magazine, an American-Syrian analyst, and co-author of ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror.
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