Azerbaijan Airlines plane ‘likely shot down by Russian air defences’

Credit: X / @yarotrof

An Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed on Christmas Day was “likely shot down by a Russian military air defence system,” a UK-based aviation security firm has said.

The crash immediately prompted speculation that the aircraft was shot down by Russia after it took a detour of hundreds of miles in the wrong direction and crash-landed with holes in the fuselage.

Russian military bloggers have suggested the plane, which crashed near the Kazakhstan city of Aktau, could have been mistaken for a Ukrainian drone.

The incident, which killed at least 38 people and injured a further 29, took place after a significant detour, which could have been caused by GPS jamming.

The Embraer 190 aircraft made an emergency landing 3km from the Aktau, an oil and gas hub on the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea, on Wednesday.

It was flying from Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan to Grozny, the capital of Chechnya in the north Caucasus.

Credit: @clashreport/X

Footage of the crash, circling online, showed the plane making a steep descent before smashing into the ground in a fireball.

Other footage showed part of its fuselage ripped away from the wings and the rest of the aircraft lying upside down in the grass.

Russian military bloggers and some aviation analysts have suggested holes in the fuselage of the craft may have been caused by shrapnel from an anti-aircraft missile.

The crew on the aircraft reported a collision in the air before the plane began its emergency landing, which the Russian aviation authorities initially suspected to have been caused by a flock of birds.

However, it was later revealed that one of the plane’s oxygen tanks had exploded, prompting speculation that the collision was actually an encounter with Russian air defences.

Vladimir Putin’s forces have militarised the area the plane was flying over, on a detour that had not been planned by the airline.

The plane was attempting to land at a Russian airport in Grozny, which at the time of landing was under attack by Ukrainian drones.

Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the United Kingdom, warned its clients that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defence system”.

Osprey provides analysis for carriers still flying into Russia after Western airlines halted their flights during the war.

Andrew Nicholson, chief executive officer of Osprey, said that the company had issued more than 200 alerts regarding drone attacks and air defence systems in Russia during the war.

“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson wrote online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided.”

Credit: @clashreport/X

Baza, a Telegram channel with links to the Russian security services, said “the holes look like those left after a shelling or explosion with striking elements”.

Rybar, an influential Telegram channel with 1.3 million subscribers, also confirmed Baza’s description, saying the damage to the fuselage resembles “striking elements of an anti-aircraft missile”.

He continued: “The plane itself was heading to Grozny – at that time, a raid by launched Ukrainian UAVs was actually being repelled over the region. Several drones were shot down over Vladikavkaz in North Ossetia and neighboring Ingushetia.”

Following the crash, Ilham Aliyev, the president of Azerbaijan, said he was returning home from Russia where he had been due to attend a summit on Wednesday, Russia’s RIA news agency reported.

Mr Putin expressed his deep sympathies to Mr Aliyev following the crash, said Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman.

“Unfortunately, Azerbaijan’s president Aliyev was forced to leave St Petersburg. Putin has already called him and expressed his condolences in connection with the crash of the Azerbaijani plane in Aktau,” Mr Peskov said.

“We deeply sympathise with those who lost their relatives and friends in this plane crash and wish a speedy recovery to all those who managed to survive,” he added.

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