Bitcoin touches one-month low as glum traders hedge for payrolls

(Bloomberg) — Bitcoin flirted with a one-month low amid a wider retreat from riskier investments in global markets due to fears about the economic outlook.

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The largest digital asset slid more than 4% at one point on Wednesday before paring a part of the decline to change hands at $56,318 as of 7:15 a.m. in London. Most other major tokens such as Ether also nursed losses.

Signs of economic weakness in the US and China are unnerving investors, stoking the worst spell for global stocks since an Aug. 5 rout. The dour mood has spilled across to crypto, with traders fixated on a US jobs report scheduled for Friday for clues on whether or not a deeper slowdown is brewing.

In the options market, demand is picking up for hedges against Bitcoin falls, both for the period following the upcoming US payrolls data as well as for the aftermath of the November presidential election, according to Sean McNulty, director of trading at liquidity provider Arbelos Markets.

“We’ve seen renewed downside buying interest in Bitcoin options, especially for post-payroll strikes at $55,000 and lower,” McNulty said. A notable position was also opened for contracts expiring Nov. 29 at a $35,000 strike, he said.

That may be a hedge against overtly pro-crypto Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump losing the race for the White House to Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, who has yet to detail a stance on digital assets.

Other signs of caution include a slide in aggregate open interest — or outstanding contracts — for CME Group Inc. Bitcoin futures to the lowest since May. Meanwhile, US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have posted their longest streak of net outflows since June, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Fairlead Strategies LLC technical analyst Katie Stockton in her latest research note moved to a “long-term neutral bias” for Bitcoin. The balance of risks is tilting toward a possible test of the $52,000 to $50,000 price range, said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Australia Pty.

Bitcoin’s rally this year has fizzled somewhat since the record high of $73,798 hit in March. The immediate seasonal outlook is challenging, if history is right. Over the five years through 2023, the original cryptocurrency posted an average September drop of more than 8%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.