Sir Tony Blair was urged not to open Britain’s borders to thousands of Eastern European migrants but ignored the advice of his most senior ministers, official files have revealed.
The former Labour prime minister was warned by John Prescott, his late deputy, and Jack Straw, the then foreign secretary, that allowing immediate unrestricted access for migrants from countries joining the EU in 2004 would lead to a surge in immigration.
However Cabinet Office papers released by the National Archives reveal that Sir Tony was persuaded by others including Lord Blunkett, the then home secretary, that migrants were needed to boost the economy.
Net EU migration subsequently rose to hundreds of thousands a year despite the Home Office predicting the impact on numbers from the eight former Soviet bloc countries would be relatively limited.
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The official papers released on Wednesday reveal that within weeks of the countries joining, there was evidence the numbers arriving were far outstripping previous estimates.
One official said they faced an “elephant trap” and advised ministers to “err on the side of publishing less rather than more” when it came to releasing official data.
Mr Straw later admitted that the failure to put in place any transitional controls as nearly all other EU nations had done was a “spectacular mistake” which had far-reaching consequences.
The decision was widely seen as having contributed to a major increase in immigration in the years that followed, with net EU migration rising to more than 200,000 a year.
Cheap labour from Poland and other new member states was blamed for undercutting British workers. It later helped pave the way for Brexit as successive governments struggled to get the numbers back under control.
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When the Labour government announced in 2002 that immigrants from the eight nations would be free to come to Britain to work from the moment they joined on May 1 2004, it had been expected that other member states would follow suit.
However, with less than three months to go, Mr Straw wrote to the prime minister calling for a rethink, and warning that the situation had changed dramatically in the intervening period.
‘Urgent action’
“If we do not think this through now, I believe we could be faced with a very difficult situation in early May, and could then be forced to take urgent action to suspend the concessions, in the least propitious of circumstances,” he wrote.
“In particular, whilst some EU member states were never going to give this concession, other EU member states who we thought would be joining us have begun to peel away.
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“France, Germany, Spain, Austria, Belgium, Finland, Greece and Luxembourg are all imposing transition periods of at least two years. Portugal is likely to follow suit.
“Italy is undecided. Sweden, Netherlands and Denmark – who were with us – have all announced the introduction of work and/or residence permits for those wishing to avail themselves of the concession.”
He was backed by Prescott who said he was extremely concerned about the pressures on social housing from a sudden influx of new migrants.
‘Our economy needs the flexibility’
However Lord Blunkett – with the support of Andrew Smith, the then work and pensions secretary, and the Treasury – argued that they should stick with the plan.
“On purely technical, economic grounds there can be no doubt that our present policy is the right one,” he wrote.
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“Our economy needs the flexibility and productivity of migrant labour which is a key part of our continued economic success.”
He said that they would be tightening the regulations to stop migrants travelling to the UK simply to claim benefits, but rejected calls for a work permit scheme as “not only expensive and bureaucratic, but I believe ineffective”.
“I fear we would only be storing up more deep-seated political difficulties in the very near future and closer to the general election. The ineffectiveness of any scheme would be quickly exposed,” he said.
The documents also reveal that Sir Tony appeared to have his own doubts and questioned whether tougher benefit rules on their own would be enough.
“Are we sure this does the trick? I don’t want to have to return to it,” he said in a handwritten note.
“I am not sure we shouldn’t have a work permits approach also. Why not? It gives us an extra string to our bow.”
Deterrent message
A warning of a possible influx of Roma people from Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia seeking to claim UK benefits only added to his concerns about the need to send out a deterrent message.
“We must do the toughest package on benefits possible and announce this plus power to revoke visa plan and message to Romas,” he scrawled in a handwritten aside.
The Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia joined the EU in 2004
At the time the government sought to maintain all was going to plan with Lord Blunkett stating “the predicted dramatic increase of new arrivals has not materialised”.
The released documents reveal that at the same time officials were warning that a Home Office forecast that it would lead to a net increase of no more than 13,000 workers a year was way off course.
In July 2004, Kate Gross, a senior No 10 adviser on immigration, wrote: “Our approach has been to err on the side of publishing less rather than more, and to tell a clear and simple story.
‘Elephant trap’
“The key elephant trap is how these figures relate to previous HO projections of the impact of EU FMOW (free movement of workers).
“In practice, the actual number of new arrivals since May 1 is only 9,000. But at the current rate of increase this number will exceed the 13,000 prediction by the end of August and, if applications continue at the current rate, would hit 50-60,000 new arrivals by May 2005.”
That prediction was also exceeded with the number of EU migrants who came to Britain rising from just 15,000 in 2003 to 87,000 the following year.
Sir Tony later admitted he did not realise how many migrants would come to the UK following the expansion after leaving office.
“We didn’t know the numbers,” he said in 2017. “But by the way it’s very important to realise two things. When these countries joined the EU, [it was] very important for us that they did join the EU – important for our security, important for our economy.”
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