Bob Casey Clinging to Faint Hopes in Pennsylvania Senate Recount

Never mind the Republicans. Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania has lost fellow Democrats in his quixotic quest for a recount comeback over David McCormick, the Republican challenger who vanquished him on November 5.

Many media outlets days ago called the Pennsylvania Senate race for McCormick, who leads Casey by more than 17,000 votes, out of nearly 7 million cast, with more than 95 percent of the vote counted. To be sure, that margin is razor-thin—it works out to one quarter of 1 percentage point, or less, according to various tallies and is tight enough to trigger a state law-mandated automatic recount. But veteran Democratic insiders in the Keystone State tell The Dispatch the votes simply aren’t there for the recount, which Casey supports, to change the outcome.

“As a [political] practitioner, any outcome other than McCormick winning in the end is a very, very long stretch,” said a Democratic operative in Pennsylvania, who requested anonymity because he did not want to publicly criticize Casey. “I can’t see it going much more than another week.”

The hard-fought contest will end the three-term Senate career of Casey—who has held elected office in the commonwealth since 1997 and whose father, Robert P. Casey, served as governor from 1987 to 1995. But the fact that Democrats now seem to agree with Republicans on the outcome does not mean the effort to keep Casey’s hopes alive hasn’t been controversial.

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled pre-election that the state’s 67 counties could not count mail-in ballots submitted with undated or improperly dated exterior envelopes. After three southeastern Pennsylvania counties—Bucks, Montgomery, and Philadelphia—brazenly ignored the ruling and decided to include such ballots in the recount, the high court on Monday issued a second directive ordering them to comply.

In a statement Monday evening, Gov. Josh Shapiro said the counties must abide by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s ruling, although the Democratic chief executive did not comment on Casey or how the senator should handle the recount moving forward:

The Department of State had advised counties repeatedly of their duty to segregate challenged provisional ballots and undated ballots in anticipation of a ruling by the court. The court has now ruled on the counting of these ballots specific to the November 5, 2024 election and I expect all county election officials to adhere to this ruling and all the applicable laws governing our elections. As we move forward, I want to be clear: any insinuation that our laws can be ignored or do not matter is irresponsible and does damage to faith in our electoral process. The rule of law matters in this Commonwealth, and as I have always said, it is critical for counties and officials in both parties to respect it with both their rhetoric and their actions.

Following pressure from state supreme court and the governor, officials in Bucks and Montgomery counties appeared to soften their intransigence, although Philadelphia County did not appear to immediately back down, according to reporting from The New York Times. The deadline to conclude the recount is November 26, with results due in the secretary of state’s office by November 27—the day before Thanksgiving.

But would these disqualified votes even make a difference in Casey’s longshot bid to alter the outcome of the race? Even fellow Democrats are doubtful.

“It’s time for Bob Casey to concede,” Mark Singel, a Democratic operative in the state who served as lieutenant governor under Casey’s father, told WHP, the CBS affiliate in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. “I know he wants to count every single, last ballot, and it is possible that when you look at the amended ballots and the last ones to come in, you might get to that point five threshold. But, to reconsider all the votes and have a recount, it rarely changes the effect.”

“It’s time to get on with this,” Singel added.

Casey and his Democratic allies insist it’s too soon to give up.

Their main argument is that some counties are still in the middle of their original tabulation of votes—including mail-in and provisional ballots not discounted by the Supreme Court ruling. Casey’s campaign contends those ballots could further reduce a McCormick advantage that has shrunk precipitously since November 5.

“We’re counting votes and there’s a recount underway—it’s already started. So, we’ll see what the recount shows,” Casey told reporters Tuesday on Capitol Hill. Regarding Bucks, Montgomery, and Philadelphia counties defying the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, Casey added: “My own belief is that the state Supreme Court should make a determination on the constitutionality, which they have not reached—they’ve not reached [a decision based] on the merits of the case.”

Pennsylvania’s high court never ruled on whether counting mail-in ballots with misdated or undated envelopes was legal or constitutional. Rather, in a response to a lawsuit brought in late October, they ruled for the plaintiffs, the Republican National Committee and the Pennsylvania Republican Party, on procedural grounds. This was the rationale Bucks, Montgomery, and Philadelphia counties relied upon to count flawed mail-in votes in defiance of the court, saying all votes should be counted (Republicans have said it amounted to a scheme to help Casey.)

Casey, similarly, has argued that not counting all ballots cast amounts to disenfranchisement.

Republicans, meanwhile, are not taking McCormick’s apparent commanding position in the vote count for granted.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee in conjunction with the RNC has dispatched 100 staff, including 40 lawyers and its own general counsel, across Pennsylvania to manage the party’s effort to monitor and litigate the recount. The McCormick campaign is confident its lead will hold, regardless of whether the disqualified ballots are included in the final tally. Still, Republicans are pressuring Democrats to back off and accept defeat.

“This election has been settled for weeks—Dave McCormick won. Josh Shapiro, [Pennsylvania Sen.] John Fetterman, and Democrat party leaders must demand that Casey concede instead of wasting millions in taxpayer dollars on a doomed recount,” NRSC spokesman Philip Letsou said in a statement provided to The Dispatch.

Charles Hilu contributed to this report.

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