SACRAMENTO — Proposition 36, the ballot measure to increase penalties for certain drug and theft crimes, continues to gain support, with an overwhelming majority of voters saying in a statewide poll release Friday that they would approve the change.
Sixty percent of likely voters in late September said they would support Prop 36, up slightly from 56 percent in early August, the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll found.
“It’s a tall order for the ‘No’ side to get this defeated,” said Mark DiCamillo, the IGS poll director. “It seems headed for passage.”
It is especially popular with Latino voters, with 73 percent backing it. Voters across almost all demographics approve of the measure. As Cristina Mora, IGS co-director, said in a statement, it pushes back on conventional wisdom that voters are moving away from harsher punishment. Only “strong liberals” and Black voters broadly oppose it.
“Several communities, especially Latinos, have more nuanced views on drug crime and punishment today,” she said.
The tough-on-crime measure isn’t just popular with Republicans and conservatives, but with 58 percent of no-party-preference voters as well. Democrats are also largely on board: 47 percent said they would vote for it, compared to 28 percent who won’t.
“They’re definitely not following the cues of the governor of the state’s Democratic political leadership,” DiCamillo said.
Prop 36 would strengthen criminal penalties for repeat offenders involving retail theft and fentanyl possession. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has come out against the measure, which has also been the target of criminal justice reform and drug treatment advocates.
Still, it’s been popular with voters throughout election season. Friday’s poll results affirm two other surveys in September, which also show strong support for Prop 36.
With 19 percent of people still undecided a month before the election, the poll gives some insight into how voters are feeling about the criminal justice system, one DiCamillo says is more nuanced than voters just wanting to get tough on crime. While videos of smash-and-grabs and stories of fentanyl trafficking are pushing voters toward more punitive responses, it’s not uniform across all situations.
“It’s the repeat offenders that they really want targeted, and that’s what’s driving support for Prop 36,” DiCamillo said. “About half of the state’s voters would actually prefer expanding rehabilitation and treatment for first time offenders.”
Most voters who endorse the measure — 61 percent — agree that “those convicted of repeatedly breaking the law should receive harsher punishments.” Most respondents who would vote against it say they’re doing so because the measure focuses “too much on punishment and not enough on rehabilitation.”
But voters are split on whether they think the measure will affect homelessness and whether or not they think rehabilitation or more incarceration is the answer to the state’s drug and crime problems.
The poll also found low support for Proposition 32, to raise the state’s minimum wage, and Proposition 33, about rent control.
Support for Prop 32 is at 46 percent, down from 52 percent in August. Prop 33 is hovering at 37 percent, also down from August.
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