Caribbean disturbance has potential path toward Florida, models show |

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It may be November, but the tropics are still showing signs of life.

A disturbance in the Caribbean is likely to become a tropical depression in the coming days, the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday.

How many hurricanes have hit Florida in November?

Some models show the potential storm entering the Gulf of Mexico and making a turn toward Florida, but with those long-range predictions, it’s just too early to tell where it’s going to go, according to Max Defender 8 Meteorologist Amanda Holly.

“Several options are on the table, including getting swept out quickly into the Atlantic, as well as a tropical storm or even hurricane moving into the Gulf of Mexico,” Holly said. “That possibility is seven to 10 days away, making it too early to answer many questions except that a storm is likely to form.”

With the models looking far ahead, changes to the potential storm’s path are possible. Forecasters will know more about its potential path and intensity as it develops in the coming days.

The Caribbean disturbance has a 40% chance of developing in the next 48 hours and an 80% chance of developing over the next seven days. If it reaches tropical storm strength, it will be named Sara.

November is when hurricane season winds down, but storms are still likely to form in the warmer waters of the Caribbean.

“We have been impacted by November storms before, even after November 20th,” Holly said. “We’ve had five storms impact Florida, but only one of those was a hurricane. That was back in 1985.”

Floridians may remember when Hurricane Nicole struck the state at around this time in 2022.

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