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Chinese authorities announced an upgraded focus on sustainable aviation fuels this week, launching the country’s first center focused on industry research and regulation, with ambitions to become a global market leader.
China’s aviation emissions are roughly half of those in the US, but could “quadruple” by 2050 in a scenario where the average distance traveled by passengers continues to rise, Carbon Brief reported in 2020.
SIGNALS
A comprehensive strategy from China could stimulate the industry
Airlines have been slow to move away from fossil fuels due to high costs and limited feedstock and product support. But a clear national strategy from China, which has so far lagged behind the US and Europe in setting mandates for greener jet fuel sources, could give impetus to global efforts, the sustainability manager of Cathay Pacific told Bloomberg. A comprehensive target of making just 1% of aviation fuel sustainable could be enough to get the industry moving, an energy researcher told Dialogue Earth in 2023, with extra costs — SAFs are two to six times more expensive than fossil fuels — accounted for by raising ticket prices on popular routes or business-class travel.
But there may really be ‘no such thing’ as sustainable aviation
Despite the buzz, SAFs are no “silver bullet,” a group of climate experts argued in The Conversation: They rely heavily on biofuels, which require such significant amounts of renewable energy and biomass to produce that other industries undergoing a green transition risk losing those resources. SAFs also may not be carbon neutral, since their production requires emissions-intensive machinery, fertilizer, and technology, and the widespread destruction of rainforests for crop cultivation, the experts said. Ultimately, science suggests there’s really “no such thing” as sustainable aviation, an economist told the BBC, adding that while “politically and socially unpalatable,” the best solution is to reduce demand for flights globally, and increase taxes on the airline industry.
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