Welcome to the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff.
In anticipation of the first four-round postseason in college football history, we’re counting down our predicted playoff field as the season approaches. The top five conference champions in the CFP selection committee’s rankings will make the playoff and the rest of the field will be filled out by seven at-large teams. Who will lift the national championship trophy on Jan. 20 in Atlanta?
Previous previews: Nos. 25-13, No. 12 Boise State, No. 11 Utah, No. 10 Florida State, No. 9 Missouri, No. 8 Michigan, No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 5 Alabama
2023 record: 12-2, 8-1 Big 12
Last season in 100 words or less
As we mentioned a day ago in the Alabama section, the Longhorns’ convincing win in Tuscaloosa set the stage for their run to the College Football Playoff. Texas looked vulnerable in a comeback win by Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, but the regular season otherwise went off without a hitch.
Yeah, Quinn Ewers missed time with a shoulder injury suffered against Houston, but the team managed the games without him and snuck past Kansas State in overtime. A week later, Texas only beat TCU by a field goal, but took care of business its final two games and then blew out Oklahoma State for the Big 12 title. The Longhorns then went toe-to-toe with Washington before losing the Sugar Bowl to the Huskies.
Why Texas can make the playoff
The Longhorns lost a lot of key players to the NFL Draft. But there’s a lot less to replace than you’d expect and a lot of talent ready to step in.
Ewers is back after having the best season of his career. He threw for nearly 3,500 yards despite missing two games and is a preseason Heisman favorite. The team showed that the offense still hums without Jonathon Brooks after he tore his ACL late in the season. CJ Baxter stepped up in Brooks’ absence last season, but he’s now out for the year with a knee injury he suffered during fall camp.
The situation at running back got even thinner after Baxter’s injury as well. True freshman Christian Clark tore his Achilles a week later. Jaydon Blue, the Longhorns’ No. 2 returning rusher behind Baxter, is now poised to be the team’s No. 1 back with just two other scholarship running backs behind him.
At least the running backs will have a very good offensive line to run behind. Four starters are back up front and Texas has averaged at least five yards a carry in all three of Steve Sarkisian’s seasons as coach.
The top five receivers from a season ago have departed, but Sarkisian and his staff dipped into the transfer portal to bolster that group. Former Alabama receiver Isaiah Bond arrives after he was on the receiving end of Jalen Milroe’s miracle pass against Auburn. Former Oregon State wide receiver Silas Bolden could also start after he’d been a weapon in the slot for the Beavers. Ex-Houston WR Matthew Golden caught six TDs last season.
The defense won’t have defensive line studs Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat but otherwise returns eight starters and also added reinforcements through the transfer portal.
LB Anthony Hill was the team’s second-leading tackler as a freshman and should only be better as a sophomore. Jahdae Barron played all over the field a season ago and had six pass breakups and 4.5 tackles for loss.
Ethan Burke led the team with 5.5 sacks and returns up front on a veteran defensive line. What the team lost in star power up the middle may be made up with an increased pass rush. Former UTSA edge rusher Trey Moore arrives after recording 14 sacks with the Roadrunners in 2023. Former San Jose State CB Jay’Vion Cole should boost the secondary too. Cole had three picks in his first season at the top level of college football in 2023.
Key player
Niblack isn’t going to be the star of the Texas offense in 2024. But his ability to quickly be an integral contributor could determine just how high the offense’s ceiling is.
Wide receivers AD Mitchell and Xavier Worthy were the stars of Texas’ passing attack a season ago. But the role that TE Ja’Tavion Sanders played over the past two seasons played can’t be overlooked. Sanders had 99 catches for 1,295 yards and seven scores in 2022 and 2023. Niblack steps into Sanders’ spot after a 20-catch season at Alabama that led to 327 yards and four touchdowns. Asking Niblack to produce at the level Sanders did may be a bit much. But he should have opportunities right away, especially as Texas breaks in its new wide receivers.
Biggest game
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Oct. 19 vs. Georgia
The Longhorns got a much easier schedule than the other SEC newcomer. While Oklahoma plays Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama and LSU, Texas’ toughest conference game is against Georgia and its second-toughest is a visit to Texas A&M in the final week of the season.
The game against Georgia will be a raucous atmosphere and a great test for the Longhorns. It also comes a week after the annual rivalry game against the Sooners. With a trip to Michigan looming in Week 2, a split against the Sooners and Bulldogs will go a long way in Texas’ chances of making the playoff in back-to-back seasons.
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