Summary
The S&P 500 is up more than 50% from its bear-market lows of 3577 on October 12, 2022. The index surpassed the 20%-gain mark back in June 2023, and, according to one long-held theory, is now in a bull market. Even on the more stringent definition of a bull market — that stocks must reach a new all-time high before a bull market begins — a new one has started, as the S&P 500 topped the old 1/3/2022 high of 4796. There were some wobbly steps back in August, September, and October 2023, when the index sold off 2.1%, 5.0% and 4.0%, respectively, due to high inflation and high interest rates. But the market seems to have settled down as the economy continues to grow and inflation declines. What can investors expect going forward from a bull market? We have studied the 13 bull markets since the end of World War II. On average, the S&P 500 gained 164% during these 13 periods, which averaged 57 months in duration. We also note that the recent bull markets have generated higher returns over longer periods. On average, the five bull markets since 1980 have seen stocks advance about 240% over a period of 70 months. And the bull market prior to the pandemic carried on for 11 years, during which stocks rose 500%. It is worth pointing out
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