Summary
When global economic conditions become unpredictable, investors often flock to gold. Currently, the yellow metal is trading around $2,400 per ounce, up 17% for the year and at the highest level in the past 25 years. During the first phase of the pandemic, as uncertainty abounded, the spot price for an ounce of gold jumped 33% in six months and broke through the $2,000 level. Gold spot prices also spiked above $2,000 in early March 2022 due to the war in Ukraine, and are now at even higher levels as tension simmers in the Middle East and East Asia, and the U.S. presidential election approaches. The current price of gold reflects the perceived safety of hard assets amid the global conflicts, as well as expectations for lower U.S. interest rates (which tend to weaken the dollar, which is the currency in which gold is priced). The outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts also helps gold, as lower rates reduce the risk for a global economic recession and thus a potential decline in gold purchased for jewelry. Looking ahead, our forecast trading range for gold in 2024 is now $2,500-$1,800, and our average forecast for the year is now $2,200. This c
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