Some great teams have made their mark on the history of the European Championship. Regardless of whether they deliver the ultimate success from this point on, this England side will not be remembered as one of them.
When you think of the elite-level winners, France in 2000 or Spain in 2008 and 2012 are still fresh in my memory.
If England go all the way, they will not be taking their place in such esteemed company. What we will have witnessed will be comparable to the victories of Greece in 2004 and Portugal in 2016, when a series of underwhelming displays led to improbable success.
As was the case with the Portuguese eight years ago, England are defying football logic to still be in the conversation. It is highly unusual for a strong nation to play so consistently poorly in a major tournament and reach the semi-final.
In the immediate aftermath of a penalty shoot-out victory and securing a last-four place, the emotions grip and there is an understandable desire to ride the wave of positivity. The excitement around the country will build before Wednesday because when you make it to the latter stages, the result is everything. Focusing on the enduring negatives may misread the mood. Ultimately, it does not matter how you win, only that you do. This England team can be history-makers.
But relieved as I and millions of others were to see Trent Alexander-Arnold convert the winning spot-kick against Switzerland, there is also an overriding sense of disbelief that England are in this position.
We can’t escape reality. We cannot dress it up any other way. England have been extremely lucky, first against Slovakia and now Switzerland. They are through to the last four despite performances, rather than because of them.
Gareth Southgate will wake up on Sunday morning with more to ponder than is normal for any international manager who has just reached a semi-final. When he and his staff discuss the next team selection, they will have more questions than answers. Never mind the best England team, we are still none the wiser about the best formation. This is unprecedented territory for us because every other England side that played to this level would have flown home by now.
Every other team preparing for the semis – whether they have endured good days and bad – will have a sense of where they are at. Their coach will have an intuition of the players in good form, and how to get the best from them.
England? Even when the celebrations were ongoing in Dusseldorf you could repeat the argument that was first made after the Denmark match and suggest it needs ripping up and to start again.
There are dilemmas all over the pitch, starting with the set-up. Should Southgate persist with three at the back? If so, is Luke Shaw ready to replace Kieran Trippier? Will Marc Guehi come back for Ezri Konsa?
What about Cole Palmer? What more must he do to earn a starting position when the attacking players who have kept their places for five consecutive matches are not delivering as a unit? England have been over-reliant on sensational moments from Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka.
They have been unable to break down and beat Denmark, Slovenia, Slovakia and Switzerland over the course of 90 minutes, the latter two requiring extra-time and penalties.
When Saka equalised on Saturday, it had been over 90 minutes over two games since England had a shot on target – which was Harry Kane’s winner against Slovakia.
Yet again, when the game was drifting and crying out for fresh legs and imagination from the substitutes bench, Southgate was reactive rather than proactive. As in the previous game, it worked for him.
With most teams, this level of brinkmanship would not be sustainable. England are getting by following different rules.
International football is not necessarily about brilliant back-to-back displays. I have said and written many times that it is often about getting it right when it matters, and a world-class player turning up can hide a multitude of flaws in a side.
Many are pointing out that France have not been playing swashbuckling football over the last month, while Germany, Portugal and Italy are out. Spain needed a late winner in extra-time to make it to the last four, too.
The difference with all those teams is they have all produced at least one or two high-class performances against quality opponents. Average as they have occasionally been, the situation is not comparable.
The combined xG of France’s strikers, Kylian Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann, is superior to the entire England team, which shows they are creating chances even if they are not scoring enough.
Didier Deschamps’ side have played three of the seven highest-ranked countries in world football. The Swiss, rated 19th in the world, are the highest ranked England have played so far. With respect, we are not talking about an underdog side going toe-to-toe with superpowers, eking out results by getting the most from their resources. England are dragging themselves down to the level of mediocre teams and just about getting over the line.
What baffles me is how so little in the England team is functioning correctly. To be positive, we can say they are holding up defensively. Again, the caveat is they are yet to play a side with any world-class forwards.
The French and Spanish will want to play England in the final because they will be confident they will create the opportunities which others have not taken.
I am aware as I write this that many England supporters – maybe even the coaches and players – will believe this is too downbeat an assessment given a positive situation.
But the bigger picture is that England must find a top-level performance from somewhere if they are to leave Germany with what they came for.
That is the most upbeat conclusion available to the honest viewer. No side ever wins a major competition without delivering close to their potential eventually, and you don’t normally see a side make the last four with the lingering question, ‘when are they ever going to turn up?’
If England are to transform what we have seen so far into a tournament victory, not for the first time over the last few weeks they are leaving it very, very late to do so.
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