defence spending: https://part.icle.link/ws6x9m9
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European leaders are using Sir Keir Starmer’s struggles to increase Britain’s defence spending to convince him to join a €500 billion (£420 billion) rearmament scheme funded by common debt.
Poland, which holds the European Union’s rotating presidency, is pushing the project in response to Donald Trump’s criticism that European allies have piggybacked on US defence spending for too long.
Donald Tusk, Poland’s prime minister, this week argued that “we shouldn’t really care too much about what method we adopt to finance” a boost in defence spending on the Continent.
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“There is no alternative to this: Europe must start defending itself and so it must start spending European money on this as well,” he added in a speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg.
Early versions of the Polish proposal call for an “intergovernmental agreement” that would allow its participants to chip in and buy military hardware to be distributed to European armies.
It would be loosely based on the EU’s coronavirus recovery fund, under which member states agreed to let the European Commission borrow €750 billion on the international markets to give to countries hardest hit by the pandemic.
The debt will be repaid jointly but without any agreement on how to do so until 2028.
One of the reasons Polish officials gave for pursuing an intergovernmental pact was to include non-EU countries, such as Britain or Norway, according to a source familiar with the discussions.
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It would also allow neutral countries, like Ireland, Malta and Austria, to opt-out of the scheme.
British officials have offered little suggestion they would be prepared to join the scheme in initial discussions.
But European diplomats believe the poor state of Britain’s finances mean Sir Keir could join in order to deliver his pledge to increase defence spending.
The Prime Minister has been grappling with an attempt to boost defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP
However, Labour’s defence review could be delayed until autumn, raising concerns that the defence budget could be squeezed as Rachel Reeves tries to stabilise the economy.
“Even though the UK’s finances are in a rotten state, with little money to fund security and defence, something can be done about that,” a diplomatic source said.
A second diplomat acknowledged Britain could be under pressure to join the scheme if it gets up and running.
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Poland, which is championing British involvement, spends more than 4 per cent of GDP on defence as the largest contributor to Nato by the metric.
Sir Keir and Mr Tusk recently met in Warsaw to start discussions on a separate, bilateral defence and security pact between Poland and Britain.
Discussions in Brussels over the rearmament programme are still in their infancy.
The exact financing methods and the amounts needed are still being debated.
The €500 billion figure is based on an assessment by Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission president, that the bloc would have to spend that amount over the next decade to bolster its defences.
Under the plan, the European Investment Bank would be handed a special role in overseeing the fund, raising and distributing the money.
On Wednesday, Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, told a meeting of European Defence Agency officials that Russia could challenge the bloc’s defences within five years.
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She also said: “President Trump is right to say we don’t spend enough.”
The US president recently said Nato would have to increase its defence spending per GDP from two per cent to two per cent.
Ms Kallas’s comments were also echoed by Mark Rutte, Nato’s secretary-general, who was speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
“He is right, of course, that the problem is not the US and the problem is Europe,” Mr Rutte said.
“We are safe now, but Nato collectively is not able to defend itself in 4 or five years if you stick to 2 per cent now,” he added.
Sir Keir will meet European Union leaders for discussions over the continent’s defence at a special retreat outside of Brussels on Feb 3.
Reports of the €500 billion rearmament scheme follow Volodomyr Zelensky saying 200,000 allied troops would be needed to enforce any peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.
“Europe must establish itself as a strong, global player, as an indispensable player,” the Ukrainian president said, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Given the small size of the Ukrainian army compared to that of Russia, “we need contingents with a very strong number of soldiers” to secure any peace deal, he told the audience.
Answering how many troops would be needed to enforce a piece, Mr Zelensky said: “From all the Europeans? Two hundred thousand. It’s a minimum. Otherwise, it’s nothing.”
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