The victory of the French left in the recent parliamentary elections was a surprise for many, with EU leaders quick to share their relief that a nationalist government is not taking power in France.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said he was “happy” with the result. “In Paris enthusiasm, in Moscow disappointment, in Kyiv relief,” the former European Council president said on X.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez praised the “rejection of the radical right” on X and said France had opted for “a social left that tackles the people’s problems with serious and courageous policies.”
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also told reporters he was “relieved,” adding that “we hope that the president and the elected MPs will manage to bring about a constructive government.”
After the first round of voting on June 30, forecasts predicted the far-right Nationalist Rally (RN) would win just under an absolute majority of 289 seats, and thus possibly be in a position to form the next government – with RN’s figurehead Jordan Bardella poised to become the next prime minister.
Despite the setback, the RN – driven by an anti-immigration stance – still achieved a historic result (142 seats) in the second round of voting on Sunday, scoring well above the 89 deputies it won in 2022.
That already represented an exceptional jump from the eight they had in 2017. “The tide continues to rise and our victory today has only been delayed,” said RN’s Marine Le Pen.
Victory for the New Popular Front (NFP)
The left-wing alliance New Popular Front (NFP) ultimately came out on top in the French legislative elections.
However, this outcome has plunged the country into political uncertainty unprecedented in its recent history.
French President Emmanuel Macron had triggered the snap election after his liberal party suffered losses in last month’s European Parliament elections to Le Pen’s far-right RN.
With 577 seats in the French National Assembly, the latest projections now put the NFP in first place with 188 seats, followed by Macron’s centrist Ensemble (Together) alliance with 161 and Le Pen’s RN with 142 seats.
The NFP – formed only last month – brought the previously deeply divided Socialists, Greens, Communists and France Unbowed (LFI) together as one party alliance. In the European elections at the beginning of June, the parties still ran individually.
The hard-left LFI of Jean-Luc Mélenchon is the main party of the NFP, a divisive figure who is anathema to the right and centre and has alienated many fellow leftists.
The alliance’s main programme includes a huge increase of the minimum wage as well as cancelling pension reform in France, reducing the retirement age from 64 back to 62 years.
Mélenchon was quick to demand that Macron appoints a prime minister from the left-wing alliance. He said that the NFP “has to implement its programme and only its programme” and refused to enter into negotiations with Macron’s party.
French electoral system key to leftist victory
Although Sunday’s elections saw the left NFP leading in terms of seats, the far-right RN and its allies were by far the party with the most votes with around 37% compared to 26% for the NFP.
Macron’s liberal Ensemble alliance came in third with around 24% of the vote.
In the French electoral system, the winning candidate securing the majority of votes in each of the 577 constituencies is directly elected for a seat in the National Assembly.
The left and Macron’s centre forces had formed a coalition of convenience before the second round of voting, for seats in which no winner had been determined in the first round.
To avoid taking votes away from each other, in constituencies where three candidates made it to the second round, candidates from the left or centre parties withdrew strategically.
That way, the remaining candidate had a better chance of beating the RN candidate. NFP and the liberal centre alliance both called on their supporters to vote against the RN in any case.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said that “if we look at what happened in France, no one can claim victory.” She added that “none of the three established themselves, none of the three are capable of governing alone.”
France in political limbo
Following the elections, the eurozone’s second-largest economy is entering a period of political limbo and instability just weeks ahead of the Paris Olympics.
The unforeseen political landscape left by the second round of elections anticipates a hugely divided National Assembly without clear majorities.
France now enters a very uncertain coalition-building phase, even more so as it is a country without a tradition of coalitions or alliances.
If no bloc can find a majority to form a government, the current government could conduct business on an interim basis, or an expert government could be appointed.
In such a scenario, France would face a political deadlock. A new dissolution of parliament by Macron and fresh elections would not be possible until July 2025.
Following the election, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal of Macron’s party presented his resignation to the president.
Macron refused, asking Attal to remain in power in a caretaker capacity to see out the Olympic Games and reassure the international community and markets.
Sources from the Elysée announced that Macron will take his time until the new National Assembly is established to decide on the future government that has to be formed.
To appoint a new prime minister, Macron could wait until after the parliamentary summer recess.
However, the newly elected National Assembly will hold its first session on July 18, when the president of the parliament will be elected.
The following day, decisions will be made about the vice presidents and the composition of committees.
The content of this article is based on reporting by AFP, ANP, ANSA, dpa, EFE, and HINA as part of the European Newsroom (enr) project.
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