Eye-opening surprises from 7 fantasy baseball player projections
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Eye-opening surprises from 7 fantasy baseball player projections

With the rising popularity of publicly available projection systems, very few fantasy analysts continue to make their own projections. However, I continue to stay true to the process, as I believe that the weeks spent creating my own projections each winter give me a deeper knowledge of each member of the player pool.

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Every year, I come to some conclusions during the projection process that surprise me. Here are some of my most intriguing takeaways from building my 2025 set of projections.

Crochet is being selected as the SP8 in Yahoo drafts, but I can’t find a sensible way to push him that low on my list. The right-hander struck out a mind-boggling 209 batters in 146 innings last season which would extrapolate to 243 whiffs if the Red Sox allow him to throw 170 frames. And all of his ERA estimators were roughly one run lower than his 3.58 ERA. Every pitcher has injury risk but Crochet didn’t land on the IL last year and will likely be on many of my 2025 teams.

Turner may be the most undervalued early-round pick. The table-setter played in just 121 games last year, but we can’t consider him injury prone when he missed a total of 22 games in the previous four seasons. And in terms of per-game production, Turner hasn’t lost anything. His .295 average is nearly identical to his career mark, and his rates of runs, homers and RBI were in line with expectations. The speedster stole bases at a reduced rate, but it’s worth noting that he compiled 10 swipes in 33 games before suffering a hamstring injury. He seemed hesitant to run when he initially returned, but Turner stole five bases in September and should return to the 30-steal plateau now that the injury is behind him. He’s a top-15 hitter.

India could be an excellent fit in Kansas City. The 28-year-old is never going to be an impactful power hitter, as he struggles to make hard contact. But India maximized his chances to get on base last year by logging excellent rates of walks (12.6%) and whiffs (19.6%). Kauffman Stadium does not augment power but provides plenty of base knocks, which should help India to do what he does best. And as the leadoff hitter in front of generational talent Bobby Witt Jr. and effective slugger Salvador PĂ©rez, the former Reds sparkplug could match the 98 runs he scored as a rookie in 2021.

Contreras is a truly special asset to acquire in 2025 drafts. My projections have Contreras ranked no lower than third among catchers in any of the five standard categories, which includes the No. 1 spot in runs scored and batting average. Of course, these projections aren’t surprising, as Contreras was among the top four catchers in all categories last year. I can’t find any reasons to expect regression, and I see his Yahoo ADP as a full round too late.

I drafted Marte on many teams last year, when he was selected between picks 75-100. But now that he requires a top-30 selection, I’m out. The 31-year-old’s 36 homers from 2024 were out of character for someone who went deep 53 times in 422 games from 2020-23, which was a 162-game pace of just 20 home runs. Marte has never recorded a 12-steal season and expecting him to repeat his 188 R+RBI from last year would be tied to expecting the D-backs to repeat a season in which their offense led the majors in runs scored. I currently have Marte projected for 27-86-86-6-.282, which makes him valuable — but not special.

Semien has notable bust potential. There are two ways to look at players who are on a remarkable run of durability. Many managers will see these players as especially safe. But everyone gets hurt sooner or later, and players like Semien rarely continue to play in every game once they reach their mid-30s. The career .255 hitter is unlikely to be a batting average asset, and last year he swiped just eight bases. Semien needs to play in nearly every game to post a mid-20’s homer total, which makes me reluctant to go much higher than 20 with a projection. A stat line of 21 homers, 8 steals and a .250 average would keep Semien outside the top 100 players.

There will be plenty of steals but few eye-popping totals. Of the six players who swiped 40 bags last year, most are due for regression:

  • Shohei Ohtani is returning to the mound and had never previously swiped 30 bags.

  • Prior to 2024, JosĂ© RamĂ­rez last reached 30 steals in 2018.

  • Brice Turang faded as a hitter after a hot start.

  • JosĂ© Caballero seems ticketed for a utility role.

  • Jazz Chisholm Jr. remains a notable injury risk.

This is a great year to target some skilled sluggers early in drafts before chipping away at the steals category with several players who can steal 15-30 bases. In fact, I have nearly 100 hitters projected for 15 steals (75 men reached the benchmark last year) but just four are ticketed to reach the 40-plateau.

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