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Fantasy Football Fact or Fluke: What to make of Anthony Richardson’s bounce-back week

When players bounce around between really good production and really bad production, it leaves us with a tricky puzzle to solve in our fantasy football leagues. On one hand, every skill player in the NFL has the potential to go off at any time, in any matchup. We can use the data available in terms of defensive matchup and utilization to make our best guesses as to who that will be each week, but we’ll never be perfect with our predictions.

Take Russell Wilson for example. In the actual best QB matchup on paper with the Ravens, coming off three reasonably good to great games, he was an obvious fantasy start.

Yikes, did that not work out!

On the other hand, we know that some players are simply more talented and/or surrounded by more talent than others, making their good outcomes more likely. Those are the guys we don’t need to microanalyze because you’re starting them regardless of whether their most recent stat line was a dud (see one exception below).

I’m going to be focusing on some of the big disparities in performance from Week 10 to Week 11 coming from fringe starters. These are players you consider starting due to byes or injuries but aren’t performing like every week must-starts. Do we buy their big Week 11 outburst of fantasy points? Or will they return to fantasy irrelevance?

We’re more likely to chase good performances from fringe players than we are to actively avoid bad ones. Breaking down the source of the improved fantasy stat line can help us decide whether it was simply a fluke or whether it contributes to growing evidence that trust is in order.

While the 9-1 Lions have been consistent as a team, thanks in part to their surprisingly good defense this season, Goff has been a roller coaster of a fantasy asset. After a slow start, he put up massive totals in Weeks 4 and 6, only to enter a slow decline that bottomed out with a 240-yard, five-interception performance vs. Houston in Week 10. Even in Week 8, when the Lions put up 52 points and Goff threw three touchdowns, his 85 yards resulted in only 15.5 fantasy points.

Enter Week 11 and enter the Jacksonville Jaguars. Unlike Wilson, Goff did not disappoint in an elite QB matchup. Throwing for 412 yards and four touchdowns with no errors, Goff put up his best numbers of the season. I had the foresight to use Goff in DFS and start Jameson Williams where I could soften the blow of facing Goff in fantasy leagues last weekend.

So, what to do for Week 12 at Indianapolis and beyond?

The Colts are a plus matchup for QBs and slightly above average for RBs. It’s clear that the Lions aren’t afraid to run up the score on opponents, but it’s also clear that they will not abandon the run-first approach that’s landed them in serious contention for the NFC’s top playoff seed.

My prediction is that Goff will end up in the 16-20 fantasy point range for Week 12, making him a viable fill-in for Joe Burrow or Josh Allen and a definite start in SuperFlex formats. I’d try to avoid Goff in Week 13 vs. Chicago since the Bears have been brutal for opposing fantasy QBs and the Lions will rely even more heavily than usual on David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

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It’s amazing what happens when rumors of your new coach’s pending demise start circling. It was great news for fantasy managers who drafted Richardson that he’d be starting Week 11’s matchup with the Jets 
 at least, for those managers who hadn’t dropped him and had the fortitude to start him against the above-average pass defense of the Jets.

Richardson had been benched after Week 8 in favor of Joe Flacco, a move that generated a LOT of controversy in both real and fake football circles. Granted, Richardson was objectively terrible in every game he played except Week 1, whether it was via fumbles, interceptions, low yardage, sacks taken or just the occasional need for some sideline rest. Maybe those who said you can’t improve on the bench were wrong, though, as Richardson accounted for three touchdowns (one passing, two rushing) and beat the Jets on the road in Week 11. Josh Downs (5/84/1) remained fantasy-relevant and is the Colts’ WR you want to start.

The bad news is that Indy and Richardson will host the Lions next weekend. I already mentioned the upside here for Goff and Co., but Richardson faces much steeper odds. Detroit is one of the worst fantasy matchups for opposing passers and rushers and they will be looking to dominate time of possession with their two star backs running wild. There are certainly worse options than Richardson for Week 12, but I don’t believe that everything is magically fixed and matchup-proof where he is concerned.

Stafford had full control over the Patriots on Sunday, throwing four touchdowns and 295 yards and needing only 18 completions to do so. It was a far cry from what he accomplished in Week 10 against another AFC East opponent, Miami, at home on MNF. His yardage was similar, 293 passing yards, but he threw zero touchdown passes and one interception in the loss.

This has pretty much been his story this season.

Even with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the field Stafford has been inconsistent for fantasy managers. Aside from Chicago, his worst performances have come against fairly generous pass defenses like Las Vegas and Arizona, while his best have been against the tougher opponents like Minnesota and New England.

You know I advocate for SuperFlex leagues a lot in here, and one reason is that you never have to make these decisions. Stafford is an auto-start, along with Goff and Richardson in that format. For you traditionalists, Stafford and the Rams host the Eagles for another primetime game Sunday night. Philadelphia has slowly become one of the worst passing matchups in the league. In addition to allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, they allow the fourth-fewest to quarterbacks.

In theory, this is the kind of matchup Stafford could thrive in based on his season so far, but whether you need to start him depends on your other option(s). My prediction is that he’ll be somewhere in the 13-17 fantasy point range, meaning that there are better options (Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield).

I’m not going to get through this without addressing the elephant in the starting lineup. The tiny Audric EstimĂ©-shaped elephant that was supposed to deliver mega fantasy points, that is. Heading into Week 11, EstimĂ© was the hot pickup who was poised to handle the majority of the running back duties after doing so in Week 10 (albeit with so-so results). Instead, Javonte Williams carried nine times for 59 yards and a score along with four catches for 28 yards against the Falcons while EstimĂ© totaled nine touches for 25 total yards. Williams’ Week 10 stats signaled doomsday if any performance ever did — yet the opposite happened in Week 11.

Week @ ATL

What to trust? First, the game was a blowout and what work Estimé did get was in the second half. Williams looks like he will continue to operate as the lead but whether he retains the role will have more to do with how he performs and how Estimé does when mixing in. It will be a mixed, hot-hand situation. Week 12 brings a matchup with the Raiders, a good spot for both backs. My guess is that Williams has the edge going into Week 12, but this shared backfield is a fantasy nightmare.

Like some of the other people appearing here, Dobbins has been up and down, teasing us with multi-touchdown fantasy goodness a couple times this season. His bounce-back from a Week 10 dud yielded 55 scrimmage yards on 18 touches with two touchdowns on 11 carries Sunday night vs. Cincinnati. He’s been more good than bad overall, and the upside is probably too good to even consider benching Dobbins. Gus Edwards is not pushing for more work and has yet to even score this season.

Up next is a MNF matchup with Baltimore. Though the Ravens showed they could play defense against the Steelers, they remain the fourth-best fantasy matchup overall. With Justin Herbert playing really well right now, I’m starting Dobbins every week. The upcoming schedule is very friendly.

I strongly doubt anyone has the roster strength to bench Hall, but Week 11 served as a reminder of why he was a first-round fantasy pick. Yes, it’s about time. After the first three games of the season had us feeling good about our first-round pick, Weeks 4, 5, 8, 9 and 10 left a lot to be desired. Sure, Weeks 6 and 7 kept the dream alive but here we are. The biggest concern here is that the Jets’ loss pretty much takes them out of contention (they technically have like, a 1% chance). Week 12 is the bye, and after that, they may not want to risk Hall’s future by over-using him when there is nothing to gain from it. Braelon Allen could be the late-season RB hero we need.

The Jameis Winston show is in full effect these last few weeks and it is awesome. While Cedric Tillman had been the hot hand for Cleveland in Weeks 8-9, Week 11 saw a bounce-back effort from David Njoku (9/81 on nine targets) and a stunner from Jeudy (6/142/1 on 11 targets). Tillman also saw 11 targets but managed to haul in only three of them (47 yards). Elijah Moore flashed in Week 8 with Winston and also provided a fat stat line against New Orleans (6/66/1 on eight targets). The Browns’ receivers have been legit fantasy options with Winston, but the party may be over.

The Browns’ next three games are against Pittsburgh twice and Denver. These teams are both in the bottom four in terms of fantasy points allowed and allow the second- and third-fewest real points per game, respectively. I trust Tillman’s usage rate more than Jeudy’s or Moore’s, but Njoku is the only must-start Browns’ player this week.

If you had Watson as your favorite Packers’ receiver last summer, you finally got vindication with his 4/150 game against Chicago. He was likely on the bench or a free agent, however, which helped no one. The problem is that there are too many good WR options in Green Bay. That simply makes none of them great for fantasy. Jordan Love spreads the ball around so much that no WR has seen more than seven targets (Watson in Week 9) in the last three games, and only Jayden Reed has scored in that span.

Still, the Pack is mostly winning games. Unfortunately, Josh Jacobs and Love are the only trustworthy options for fantasy. Don’t go chasing Watson’s high-yardage day. It’s just as likely to be Romeo Doubs or Reed next week vs. San Francisco.

Smith narrowly edged out Brock Bowers to be fantasy’s leading (true) TE for Week 11. His usage has been fairly steady since Week 5, though this is by far his best performance of the season. Week 10 was a low point with only three catches, but those desperate for TE help probably won their matchups on the strength of his 6/101/2 stat line vs. Las Vegas.

In contrast to those who chased Mike Gesicki’s fluky two-touchdown game (against the same Raiders, in fact), Smith is a tight end who is actively involved in the Dolphins game plan with a consistent target and snap share over the last five games. It won’t always result in these kinds of numbers, but Smith is startable in all 12-team leagues.

Dissly also took advantage of a great matchup with the Bengals to post his best fantasy line of the season. Dissly had a low three-target game vs. Cleveland in Week 9 but has averaged over six targets per game since Week 6. He’s twice gone for 80+ receiving yards in that span but caught his first touchdown of the year in Week 11. With Ladd McConkey getting banged up a bit on SNF, you can absolutely slot in Dissly for the Week 12 MNF bout with Baltimore.

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