Fantasy Football storylines to watch in Week 8: Does Marvin Harrison Jr. really have a Kyler Murray problem?

I had to double check it was still 2024.

Week 7 featured QB play from Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Mason Rudolph and Drew Lock. Andy Reid was using fake punts to keep the Chiefs’ offense going. Davante Adams was back catching passes from Aaron Rodgers. We even got our annual meltdown game from Kirk Cousins.

But then a few pieces of action reminded me we’re in a brand new year of football.

The Commanders, even without their star QB, have plenty to cheer about as they battle with the Eagles for first place in the NFC East. And good luck getting past any squad from the NFC North. They hold the third through sixth spots in point differential. From Baker Mayfield being a QB1 to Brian Thomas Jr. ascending into the top 12, the takeaways from this week should guide us to our roster decisions for the following slate.

To help, let’s go through the top storylines coming out of the last set of games.

The Lions are America’s team now

Find me a team with a more fun roster than the Lions.

Detroit has the meathead (complimentary) version of Ted Lasso, with quips that’ll make you laugh and shake your head and coaching tendencies putting you in a similar condition. Next to him is an OC with a scorched-earth mentality if you cross him. Their star WR still plays with a chip on his shoulder. The backfield has adopted the nickname “Sonic and Knuckles.” Off the field, the vibes couldn’t get any better.

But once the game clock starts ticking, the hype surrounding Detroit’s offense depends on one man.

If I had to guess, the lack of love for Jared Goff stems from two things: he’s not The Engine™ of the offense (i.e., they’re a run-first team), and we’ve watched him buckle under pressure. Teams used to plan for his meltdowns. However, this isn’t the same kid from L.A.

• 2024: -0.07 (EPA per DB when pressured), 8.4 (adjusted yards per attempt), 141.1 (passer rating when blitzed)

• 2023: -0.34, 5.0, 99.6

• 2022: -0.37, 4.9, 106.6

• 2021: -0.54, 5.6, 106.4

In Goff’s final season with the Rams, he was second in interceptions, and his efficiency marks aligned with passers like Carson Wentz and Baker Mayfield (read: not good). On Sunday, a batted pass in the third quarter (!) is what it took to snap Goff’s completion streak at 15. He’s one of five passers with a CPOE over 5.0% while averaging more than 7.0 air yards per attempt (Burrow, Daniels, Hurts, and Darnold). But Goff’s evolution (and a specific emergence from their WR corps) has come at a cost.

• Air Yards per Attempt (when pressured): 8.8 (2024), 7.3 (2023)

• Sam LaPorta Target Share (when Goff pressured): 11.5%, 25.4%

• Sam LaPorta Air Yards per Target: 2.7, 8.1

In his rookie campaign, Sam LaPorta fulfilled the cliché of a TE being his QB’s safety blanket. The Iowa graduate was Goff’s most preferred target when pressured and was second on the team in red-zone looks. But the Jameson Williams’ experience has left LaPorta as the third option in the passing game. The third-year WR is out there run-blocking to Campbell’s delight while garnering 17.2% of the targets. And if Goff continues to have the confidence to look downfield instead of short, the days of elite usage for LaPorta may be over. It took a trick play to get him his first touchdown!

But there’s some short-term relief ahead for LaPorta managers.

Jameson Williams’s two-game suspension rockets Detroit’s TE1 back into the top-six discussion. LaPorta’s routes and air yards were back up in Week 7. However, his 5.7% snap rate from the slot signals OC Ben Johnson wasn’t deploying LaPorta like in ’23. Williams’ absence changes things. The dynamic WR played the second-most snaps from the interior, setting LaPorta up for the type of volume we saw last year. However, with Williams expected back, there are really only two options we can rely on every week.

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are the simplest to roster from the Lions offense. The duo is living up to its nickname by putting up video game numbers as they both rank in the top 12 for forced missed tackle rate as rushers and yards per route run as receivers. And on a team with the seventh-lowest dropback rate in the red zone, their opportunities are the surest bet on a week-to-week basis. Regardless, with the team racking up 30.3 points per game (most in the league), fantasy managers should roster every viable piece of this offense moving forward.

Patrick Mahomes closed the 49ers’ Super Bowl window

Hindsight being 20/20, I could say Christian McCaffrey’s injury to start the season ended San Francisco’s chance at getting back to the Super Bowl (I’ll elaborate, but give me a minute).

Losing Deebo Samuel in Week 3 to a calf injury with Brandon Aiyuk shaking off his hold-in rust didn’t help. George Kittle’s ailments have been another concern. Oh yeah, and Aiyuk’s gone for the season now, too.

Anyway, come January, if I had to look back on the 49ers’ season and find the moment I knew they were toast, it was Patrick Mahomes’ rushing TD:

Granted, Mahomes has about three inches and 20 lbs on Malik Mustapha. But the thud and ensuing result isn’t any less demoralizing. Also, in a way, the play represents what’s gone wrong with San Francisco’s season.

Through seven weeks, what we’ve seen isn’t the same team that was shredding offenses with ease. Sure, the overall production hasn’t dithered too much from ’23. But it hasn’t looked the same. However, at first glance, things look fine.

• 2023: 6.6 (yards per play), 37.6 (yards per drive), 52.3% (offensive success rate)

• 2024 (Weeks 1-6): 6.5, 41.3, 49.5%

Without McCaffrey, Brock Purdy looked poised to beat the Kyle Shanahan allegations. His pass-catchers were either hurt or getting back up to speed, and his passing success rate and EPA per play numbers still ranked in the top seven. But (and again, I’ll use hindsight bias here) even the positive plays didn’t look the same.

As I mentioned, things look fine on the surface. Deebo Samuel catching a pass and turning it into an explosive TD was a routine occurrence last year. But a couple of things stuck out on replay.

First, we’ve seen more high-difficulty throws from Purdy this season. Last season, he threw to a receiver with a defender within one yard at the 12th-lowest rate. The scheme delivered wide-open lanes for YAC and easy scores. This year, Purdy holds the second-highest tight-window throw rate. But it’s not just his decisions (good or bad) that are in question. The play-calling hasn’t matched the personnel.

Pure dropbacks are pass attempts without play-action, RPOs or screens. Without any window dressing, we can see how well a QB can diagnose a defense and execute. However, all of the primary options for SF have been either in and out of the lineup or getting back up to speed. And yet, Purdy’s been asked to throw more. With his aDOT jumping almost two yards in a year (8.6 to 10.2), we can see how the difficulty rating has only increased.

McCaffrey’s potential return in early November will provide some relief. At 1.6 air yards per target last season, the reigning Offensive Player of the Year becomes an instant easy button for Purdy. In the meantime, Ricky Pearsall (42.9% slot rate after Aiyuk’s injury) and Jauan Jennings (55.4% before Week 7) should see more opportunities as Samuel moved to the outside the last time Aiyuk was off the field (2023, Week 3).

The offense has the play-caller and QB to hold our fantasy interests. But the likelihood of seeing them play in late January might have gone off the field in the cart with Aiyuk.

Marvin Harrison Jr. has a Kyler Murray problem

Admittedly, the title of this section is (slightly) disingenuous. I agree there are some growing pains with the Harrison-Murray connection, but let’s give it time.

But wait, there’s more!

I’ll even give you a (slightly) disingenuous clip of Marvin Harrison Jr. running downfield without a defender within five yards:

OK, let’s be serious. Pause the clip at 0:06 seconds.

Look at where the right tackle and left guard are relative to the other lineman two seconds after the snap. Plus, at least Kyler’s head is facing in Harrison’s general direction. Whether he’d have pulled the trigger on the long-developing route or not is a separate topic. However, it’s not the first time we’ve seen Harrison in an “all-or-nothing” situation as a rookie.

Even on Harrison’s best day, the results seemed unsustainable. Murray needed about five seconds on the run to connect with Harrison for his second TD. Five of his eight targets were on throws 15 air yards or more. I’d love to say I’m being disingenuous this time, but this one-game sample represents how OC Drew Petzing has deployed his WR1 through seven weeks.

Only six of Harrison’s targets have come on crossing routes (i.e., YAC-enabling looks). Nearly half (48.8%) fall into the high-variance bucket (Go, Deep Post, Out). In other words, Harrison, as a rookie, has to line up and out-athlete veteran defenders. He’s Arizona’s true X-receiver. However, a couple of his classmates are in similar roles and don’t have the same issue.

Schematic dysfunction aside, there are some positive takeaways from Harrison’s usage other than his raw volume. In Week 1, Murray didn’t look his way once the pocket broke down. Since then, Harrison has out-targeted Trey McBride when Murray goes into scramble mode. In addition, the former Buckeye has eight passes thrown his way on broken plays. No other pass-catcher has more than three.

In short (no pun intended), Murray isn’t the (only) problem here. A JUGS machine isn’t responsible for Harrison’s 43 targets. Earning volume is a two-way street. And unfortunately, Petzing is on a different block. Arizona’s next three matchups look tough, but interior receivers have the advantage (MIA, CHI, and NYJ). Assuming rational coaching, expect to see more out of Harrison and Murray before they head into their bye.

Should we downgrade all Colts WRs with Anthony Richardson back?

Let’s all agree that the season ended in Week 1.

Anthony Richardson was back on the field, showcasing his arm strength. HC Shane Steichen was pulling all of the efficient levers to make the offense look unstoppable. All was well. But after three more full games with diminishing stat lines, it’s worth remembering where Richardson’s arm talent was after a similar number of games last season.

Richardson’s best game is his long game. He’s 11th in passing yards on deep attempts, with nearly half as many contests as his peers. However, if Richardson isn’t slinging it downfield, the passing game stalls.

• Behind the LOS: -0.25 (EPA per dropback), 24th (rank out of 32 qualifiers — min. 112 dropbacks)

• 1-10 Air Yards: -0.38, 32nd

• 11-20 Air Yards: 0.03, 27th

• 20+ Air Yards: 0.17, 20th

The differences between Richardson and Joe Flacco couldn’t be more stark. In Richardson’s first game back, the offense averaged a measly 21.2 yards per drive. He’s yet to pass for more than 225 yards in a single game. In the “start-only-deep-threat-WRs” leagues, rostering a Colts’ WR would pay dividends. But for the rest of us, it’s clear there’s a talent disconnect between the QB and his primary pass-catchers in Indianapolis.

Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr. operate best in the short and intermediate parts of the field. Across their three games with Flacco, both ranked in the top 20 in YPRR (2.60 and 2.14). Neither had a receiving aDOT over 10 yards. Until Richardson and Steichen can come up with a game plan that leverages all of their skill sets, we’ll need to lower our expectations for the Colts’ passing game.

Is Joe Mixon the overall RB1?

Technically, no.

Joe Mixon has only (heavy emphasis on “only”) averaged 22.1 PPR PPG. He’s still sitting behind Derrick Henry and Kenneth Walker III. So, really, he’s the RB3. But there’s a path for him to pop up a couple more spots in the ranks.

• Weeks 1-5 (w/ Nico Collins): 54.0% (Early-Down Passing Rate), 19th (EPA per Drive rank)

• Weeks 6-7 (w/out Collins): 40.4%, 18th

Unsurprisingly, Houston has leaned more on their ground game without Nico Collins on the field. Luckily, the shift hasn’t imploded the offense. They have dropped from 29.7 yards per drive to 22.6, lessening their overall scrimmage totals.

However, as I noted last week, CJ Stroud continues to be a magician on third down. Mixon plows ahead for nearly five yards on early downs (5.1 adjusted yards after contact per attempt). Stroud (usually) takes care of the rest. So, Mixon’s team environment lends itself to a top-end result. His usage emphasizes the potential of the former Bengal ranking first amongst all RBs.

• Overall Carries (when healthy): 65.3% (Rate of Team’s Carries), 3rd (rank)

• Targets per Route Run: 23.7%, 3rd

• Target Share: 12.2%, 6th

• Carries from Inside the 5-yard Line: 6, T-1st

Mixon has 87 touches across his four healthy games. Saquon Barkley (91) and Josh Jacobs (88) are the only rushers ahead of him. But it’s not just the volume keeping Mixon close to the top. He’s fourth in EPA per rush. His ability to burst through zones was a hallmark of his time in Cincinnati. However, the playcalling wasn’t.

Even this year, Cincinnati ranks 21st in the rate of rushing plays using outside zone. The Texans are fourth. Mixon fits the scheme, and the offense can still (mostly) function without its WR1. So, with this workload and outlook (IND, NYJ, DET and DAL as their next four opponents), Mixon should be a locked-in starter with a chance to reign as this year’s RB1 by season’s end.

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