Fledgling Sara storm could rapidly intensify into a major hurricane, threaten Florida

Hurricane Sara could form as early as this week, according to a new report from AccuWeather, and could threaten Florida.

Recent data from the National Hurricane Center place the chances of Tropical Storm Sara developing up to 60% over the next 48 hours and 90% over the next seven days.

“We’ll likely be dealing with a hurricane as we head into this weekend. There is increasing confidence that a tropical storm will develop in the central to western Caribbean later this week,” explained AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.

“We could be dealing with a storm that rapidly intensifies into a major hurricane in these very conducive conditions. The atmosphere is primed for development.”

While residents from Central America to southeastern Mexico, Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola Puerto Rico should monitor the storm, Floridians should do the same. As wind shear present in the north winds down, potential paths to South Florida and the Florida Keys will open.

“The development process is already underway. There are showers and thunderstorms around Hispaniola that will move west. The storms will get a boost on Wednesday when wind shear starts to fade away. A front will provide more upward motion by midweek, helping these storms organize.”

AccuWeather meteorologists warned people who the storm may impact not to let their guard down as conditions and water temperatures in the tropics are still perfectly capable of producing tropical storms as we head into the home stretch of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

Florida Thanksgiving forecast: Florida is expected to have a wet and warm Thanksgiving this year

“We still have exceptionally warm waters heading into mid-November. Ocean heat content, or the depth that warm waters reach beneath the surface, is at record levels for this time of year in the Gulf of Mexico,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.

“Ocean heat content is near record levels for mid-November in the Caribbean. These warm waters will provide extra fuel for any storms that can develop in the next few weeks.”

When will we see Tropical Storm Sara?

Meteorologists are still working on a definitive timeline for Tropical Storm Sara, but best estimates place development between Nov. 14-18.

Right now, the system expected to become Sara is still a tropical wave over the Central Caribbean Sea. Current conditions in the area are keeping organization slow, but a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of the week as it moves westward into the western Caribbean Sea.

The depression will likely meander over the western Caribbean through the weekend before it begins to slowly move northwestward early next week.

Could Tropical Storm Sara impact Florida?

Florida residents should definitely keep an eye on any budding tropical features in the main part of the Caribbean Sea, which AccuWeather calls a “potential breeding ground for new tropical storms” that will persist through at least the third week of November.

A zone of wind shear is currently present north of the Caribbean Sea, which is effectively blocking off any potential path to Florida for developing systems, but that wind shear is expected to wane by the third week of the month.

Sara storm track

AccuWeather’s hurricane experts say that there are two main storm track scenarios Sara could follow.

“If an area of high pressure to the north is stronger, the storm will likely be pushed west into Central America. If the area of high pressure is weaker, that could allow the storm to turn to the north toward Florida,” DaSilva said. “Everyone along the Gulf coast of Florida should keep a very close eye on forecast updates.”

AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter says families and businesses across Florida and the southeast U.S. should remain prepared and vigilant through the final weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season.

“These warm waters will act like high-octane rocket fuel for this brewing storm. We’ve been warning people for months that the final stretch of this hurricane season would be very active. After that long lull during the historical peak of the hurricane season, we’re now dealing with the threat of a major hurricane in the Caribbean in the middle of November,” Porter said. “

In late October we forecasted one to three named tropical storms for the month of November and the potential for storms extending beyond the official end of hurricane season into December. The historical average for named storms in November is one every two years.”

Rafael continues to impact area beaches along the Florida Panhandle

While Rafael may already feel like forgotten history to most, its remnants are still having real impacts along the Gulf Coast of the United States.

Rafael lost most of its circulation over the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night but it’s still producing a zone of downpours and thunderstorms near coastal Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

Residual swells from the storm are still present in the Gulf and will continue to cause locally rough surf and strong rip currents from Pensacola Beach to Panama City.

AccuWeather says that Rafael’s remnants will continue to loop around the western and central Gulf over the next few days, but wind shear will also continue shredding what’s left of Rafael’s circulation and moisture.

“We believe that some or the bulk of Rafael’s remaining moisture will be drawn northward into the central Gulf Coast region around the middle of the week as yet another non-tropical feature − a cold front moves from west to east over the lower Mississippi Valley,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Grady Gilman said.

Pensacola area weather for the week of Nov. 11-17

The Pensacola area can expect to see a wet week followed by cooler, dryer conditions. Temperatures will fluctuate with highs in the 70s-80s and lows from the mid-50s to upper 40s as we get closer to the end of the week.

• Tuesday, Nov. 12 — There will be a 30% chance of showers, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. East wind around 10 mph. There is a 20% chance of showers before 9 p.m. It will be partly cloudy, with a low around 69. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

• Wednesday, Nov. 13 — There will be a slight slight chance of showers before 9 a.m., then a slight chance of showers after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. East wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday night will see a chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight. It will be cloudy, with a low around 70. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

• Thursday, Nov. 14 — There will be a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms before noon. It will be partly sunny, with a high near 77. There will be a south wind round 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon.

• Friday, Nov. 15 — Friday will be mostly sunny with a high near 74 and a low around 54.

• Saturday, Nov. 16 — Saturday will be sunny with a high near 74 degrees and a low near 57.

• Sunday, Nov. 17 — Sunday will also be sunny with a high near 76 degrees and a low near 61.

• Monday, Nov. 18 — Monday will be mostly sunny, with a high near 77 degrees.

Pensacola Beach weather and flags

Pensacola Beach will see moderate to high rip currents through Friday, according to the National Weather Service Office Mobile/Pensacola.

• Current flag conditions at Pensacola Beach: Red

• Current Water temperature: 76 degrees.

• Tomorrow’s beach flag forecast: 50% red flag, 50% double red flag

Pensacola Beach rip current forecast:

• Tuesday: Moderate — Life threatening rip currents are possible. Beachgoers should swim near a lifeguard and heed the advice of local beach patrol and flag warnings.

• Wednesday: High — Life threatening rip currents are likely. The surf is dangerous for all levels of swimmers.

• Thursday: High

• Friday: Moderate

Pensacola Beach cams

Here are some live camera views of Pensacola Beach, provided by the Santa Rosa Island Authority.

Pensacola Beach south webcam

Pensacola Beach west webcam

Pensacola Beach east webcam

Pensacola, Escambia, Santa Rosa County weather alerts

Editor’s note: This story was updated to add a new photo and provide new information on the storm.

This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Sara could become major hurricane, threaten Florida. What to know

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