Football 301 Playbook: NFL awards preview with picks and dark horses for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and more
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Football 301 Playbook: NFL awards preview with picks and dark horses for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and more

We’re here. It’s gameday. Let’s launch into the season with my final predictions and picks for each major award, division and the Super Bowl!

For a more extended breakdown of each pick, make sure to check out this week’s episode of Football 301 with Matt Harmon and Charles McDonald.

(All odds via BetMGM.)

Table of Contents

Pick one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL out of a hat and build a case for him.

Patrick Mahomes on his quest for a three-peat. Lamar Jackson defending his MVP belt with Derrick Henry and other new faces. A Joe Burrow revenge tour. A Dak Prescott prevenge tour(?). Brock Purdy fills up the box score and the 49ers keep winning. Ascension from one of the young gunslingers like C.J. Stroud. Any of these make sense.

For my fanfiction, I went with a different top passer.

Allen will surely have some statistical case to lean on if he were a candidate for this award. He has sat at the top or near the top in box score stats and underlying metrics alike the past few seasons. It’s all about team success and what the narrative case could possibly be for each of these award picks.

For the team part of this, I do think the Bills are going to have a very good run game, are well-coached on defense (although the Matt Milano injury is definitely not a fun thing to overcome), and still have a nitro-boosted gatling gun at quarterback. For Allen, I think the reconfiguration of personnel on both sides of the ball, including losing receiver Stefon Diggs, will help build a case of just how valuable his play is as the narrative catches up to reality. Allen has the mind-melting plays that put the Bills over the top, but he’s also very precise (he was first in catchable ball rate and second in dropback success rate on non-RPO and non-play action passing plays last season) and cerebral (yes, really) in how he plays the game.

This is tilting the shoulder back and swinging for the fences. I’m bullish on Richardson and the Colts’ offense in general. I think the run game will be dynamite (they were eighth in rushing DVOA in 2023 with Richardson and Jonathan Taylor only on the field for a single snap together) and the Colts’ jumbo receiving corps fits nicely with Richardson’s big arm and streaky accuracy. Richardson has a ways to go to tap into all of his talent, but he’s much more polished and further along in his development than a guy with this few tangible football plays should be.

(Taylar Sievert/Yahoo Sports)

(Taylar Sievert/Yahoo Sports)

The non-quarterback with the best stats on a good team. Maybe a quarterback if we want to double-dip.

New Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has an extended background with Sean McVay and his offensive philosophies: Plenty of three-wide receiver looks, condensed formations, motion and preferably the same personnel, including the running back, on every single snap to limit tendencies.

A three-down skill set is a prerequisite for these asks from a running back; the ability to run consistently on a drive, receive the ball and to also be steady in pass protection. It requires a combination of size, skill, stamina and smarts. Todd Gurley and Kyren Williams have thrived in this heavy-snap role. And I think it’s Bijan Robinson’s turn to do the same (his back-up Tyler Allgeier would actually fit in this role, too).

Even things like the Rams’ recent transition into more duo run schemes is something that would fit Robinson, as that was his best run concept in college (and the Falcons weirdly seldom ran it in 2023). Robinson hit the rookie wall last year, seemingly mentally swamped as he was tasked to do more and more every week. A deep breath this offseason plus an offensive system that fits his skill set like a glove should see him load up on the touches, yards and scores.

Lamb would be my actual in-all-honesty pick. Because, who else is catching or running the ball in Dallas other than Jake Ferguson and the ideas of Brandin Cooks and Ezekiel Elliott?

For Taylor, see the Richardson blurb above.

Sacks seem to be the name of the game. Dark horse picks are more fun if you want to throw a dart at an off-ball player.

I’m going with the chalk pick here. Parsons is a force of nature and one of the best players in the game right now. He’s been on the cusp of winning this award before, but hasn’t quite had the standard box score numbers to put him over the top.

Enter Mike Zimmer. I think a more sound defensive structure, with interesting third-down blitz looks that could have Parsons lined up on the inside again, is going to be beneficial for Parsons to start racking up the numbers.

Special circumstances have to align for this, but an off-ball player like these two would deserve it.

Danielle Hunter at +3500 could have the sacks and the “improved Texans defense” narrative behind him if you want to throw a dart at another edge defender.

One of the six quarterbacks drafted in the first round is a good start (pending Penix). Or perhaps one of the talented receivers taken early.

I’m high on the Cardinals’ offense this year and Harrison Jr. is a big part of that. He is as pro-ready as you’ll see at the receiver position. Tall, smooth and an excellent route runner with a large catching range. He gets to play with a rejuvenated Kyler Murray (more on him in a second), an ascending play-caller in Drew Petzing and with other weapons (Trey McBride) and a run game that defenses have to respect. I have no qualms if you think Caleb Williams or one of the young, talented quarterbacks wins this award, but Harrison Jr. is set up to hit the ground running.

The Rams’ run game (if the OL is actually healthy) should be one of the best in the NFL this year. Kyren Williams will be the featured back in a heavy-usage role (see Bijan Robinson pick above), but Corum’s good vision, running style and smarts fit this offense perfectly as well. If something were to happen to Williams, who has had a checkered injury history, then Corum could have a big year.

No defender was taken in the first round this year until UCLA’s Laiatu Latu went to the Colts at No. 15. So there are no easy edge rushers to just tab here. No linebacker was selected until pick 45, and rookie cornerback is really, really hard.

Murphy is a different type of flavor than the rest of the Seahawks’ front that features a lot of rugged types, and Mike Macdonald has a recent history of unlocking a similar player in Nnamdi Madubuike. This should allow Murphy to do what he does best: fire off the football and wreck the play.

Want a dart throw? Colson is going to start right away in the middle for the Chargers with his old college defensive play-caller Jesse Minter dialing up plays. The Chargers’ defense still has a ton of holes, but Colson has experience in the defense and is a smart player who could stand to rack up some tackles. If I’m thinking like a voter: No one is getting sacks, so let’s just gaze at some other statistical columns, shall we?

He was dominant after his move to the left side last year. He’s one of the best offensive lineman in the game, let’s start treating him like it.

Take the win total from this year and subtract it from last year and that’ll give you a good pool.

I’ve really come around on this Seahawks team the more I’ve looked at them this summer. Macdonald is an effective and respected coach who has built an interesting staff around him. A surprise playoff run with good play on both sides of the ball (especially after the exits of Pete Carroll and Bobby Wagner) on a team that’s projected to win around seven games, and he has as good of a case as anybody.

I also like Shane Steichen at +1600 if you want to continue the Colts optimism.

If you’re betting on this, you’re a sicko.

My optimism about the Cardinals’ offense carries over here. It was inconsistent at times last year as he shook the rust off, but Murray looked more locked into the pre-snap and processing aspects of quarterback play than I have ever seen. I think the buy-in that Drew Petzing and head coach Jonathan Gannon have given to Murray has seemed to pay dividends for his confidence and ownership of the offense and his own play. I’m excited to see it all unfold this year.

NFC West: San Francisco 49ers (-200)

AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (-300)

AFC South: Houston Texans (-105)

AFC: Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins

NFC: Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks

NFC: Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions

AFC: Kansas City Chiefs, Houston Texans

Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Green Bay Packers

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