Sep. 29—GRAND FORKS — The National Weather Service’s local office opened its doors this weekend to show residents how government officials go about predicting area weather patterns.
“People can get a look inside what we do, how the forecast comes out,” explained forecaster Alexandra Holley on Thursday.
Grand Forks’ weather forecast office, one of 122 operating across the country, issues area weather and climate data and offers data to local government entities for weather-related decisions — like, say, a school district deciding whether to close for a snow day, or emergency responders preparing for a severe weather event.
“They like to know when it’s going to be happening and to be ready,” said warning coordination meteorologist Jim Kaiser.
The office serves some 17 counties in North Dakota and another 18 in Minnesota. (A Bismarck office covers the other half of the state, while three other weather forecast offices in Minnesota and South Dakota cover the former state.)
To make their forecasts, meteorologists at the weather forecast office take local data from a Doppler radar array in Mayville, an automated surface observation system at Grand Forks International Airport, and satellite images from a network called GOES.
The technology used at the weather station ranges from the near-new GOES satellites to the late 1980s Doppler radar array to the “Cold War-era” landlines to contact dispatch, according to forecaster Blake Rafferty.
Holley said the Grand Forks’ office principally relies on Doppler radar to gauge weather conditions, given much of the region’s weather is driven by wind conditions.
That radar is key in predicting the location of possible tornadoes and their direction by measuring wind velocity and its direction.
Other predictions rely on multiple factors to predict the risk of a severe weather event or natural disaster.
As an example, forecaster Jacob Spender explained how forecasters examine wind speed, how dry it is outside and what kind of fuel is available to determine the likelihood of a wildfire breaking out.
On Saturday, it was dry, but not particularly windy, making a wildfire unlikely, he said.
The local weather forecast office doesn’t deploy weather balloons, but UND’s Atmospheric Science department does.
During extreme weather events, the department will launch balloons and share meteorological data collected by them with the weather forecast office, since the nearest weather station with the means to launch balloons is in Bismarck.
“It’s really important on severe weather days, since the structure of the atmosphere thermally is very important,” said graduate student Kyle Gillett.
Graduate student Eve Bohlman noted the balloons offer “3-D” atmospheric data as they ascend into the stratosphere.
Graduate students launched two on Saturday afternoon, with the help of some young volunteers.
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