Here’s what to look for as Maine’s 2026 race for governor take shape

Dec. 29—Although the last election is barely in the rearview mirror, people interested in becoming Maine’s next governor are beginning to explore whether they have the support, resources and drive to compete in 2026.

Speculation about who may be considering a run has already seeped into the public arena, with names that include well-known political figures such as Rep. Jared Golden and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, and potential dark horse candidates such as Travis Mills, a retired U.S. Army staff sergeant who survived an explosion while serving in Afghanistan and now leads a prominent nonprofit.

But those who have worked on previous campaigns caution against making assumptions this early. If President Joe Biden’s late decision to bow out of last month’s presidential election taught us anything, it’s to expect the unexpected.

“Trying to make predictions this far out in politics is a very dangerous game,” said Brent Littlefield, a Republican consultant who worked on Gov. Paul LePage’s campaigns. “Generally speaking, the candidates you think might exist this far out, in many cases, are not the actual candidates that end up on the ballot by the time you get closer to the election.”

David Farmer, a Democratic consultant who worked on former U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud’s 2014 campaign, said “it’s painfully early” to assess the possible field of candidates.

“We’ve got two more years — a full half term — with the current governor,” Farmer said of Gov. Janet Mills, a Democrat. “It’s going to be hard for any candidate to break through when this governor rightly is carrying out her responsibilities and pushing her agenda. That creates a problem this far out for anyone.”

Prospective candidates are quietly considering a host of factors and having conversations with a wide range of people before making any formal announcements, according to former campaign officials. Among those being consulted for advice and support are top party influencers and leaders, major donors, special interest groups, prominent activists and local party committees.

Candidates with lesser-known names are more likely to announce as soon as this spring so they have enough time to build name recognition, they said. But better-known candidates have more flexibility. They can either declare early, in hopes of clearing the field of competition, or wait until later in the cycle.

Perhaps the most challenging aspect of assessing a possible bid is predicting the political environment in two years and whether a candidate will be able to break through the noise, Farmer said.

Mills still has two years remaining in her term, so she will continue to set the agenda. And she still has the advantage of a Legislature controlled by Democrats, although some members of her party may begin to make strategic breaks with the governor to increase their profile or build their own political brand.

The next election will be held in the middle of President-elect Donald Trump’s second term, which could shape the dynamics of the campaign.

Farmer said the strongest candidate for each party may hinge on whether the 2026 cycle will be driven more by state-level issues or be a reaction to Trump, who has signaled an aggressive conservative agenda that includes mass deportations of immigrants who are here illegally and enacting tariffs that could fuel inflation.

Another question is whether voters will prefer a political insider with a long track record, or someone from the outside who doesn’t have a history of votes and public statements to dissect and distort.

“Do we need a revolutionary, like a LePage? Or do we need the technocrat … someone really enmeshed in the law and details?” Farmer said. “Do we need someone who’s fiery and will stand up to Trump? Or do we need someone with a background that understands we need to streamline regulations because it’s getting too hard to start a business?

“I don’t know the answer to that now. I don’t think anybody does.”

Historical precedent must also be considered by candidates.

Since the 1950s, Mainers have not elected a candidate from the same political party as a departing governor — a trend that began after Maine had five consecutive Republican governors from 1937 through 1955.

The decades of ping-ponging between parties in the Blaine House began when Democrat Ed Muskie was elected in 1954, ending Republicans’ nearly two-decade hold on the governorship.

“I would assume that trend is likely here to stay,” Littlefield said. “If you have a ‘D’ next to your name, this next cycle is probably not great.”

One prediction appears to be a safe bet — expect a crowded field.

“I think the field will open up day to day,” Gov. Mills told the Press Herald in an interview last month. “There won’t be a dearth of candidates from either party, and there may be some independents as well, so it’s a little early to handicap the field.”

Big names getting attention on the Democratic side include U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, former Sen. President Troy Jackson, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and Hannah Pingree, the director of the Governor’s Office of Policy Innovation and the Future and a former House speaker. Hannah Pingree also is the daughter of U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree, a progressive Democrat representing the 1st District.

Speculation about possible Republican candidates has included former U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin, Senate Minority Leader Trey Stewart, Rep. Laurel Libby and Jonathan Bush, the cousin of George W. Bush, who bought a Cape Elizabeth mansion in 2021. Previous gubernatorial candidates, such as state Sen. Rick Bennett and former Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason, now a lobbyist, have also been mentioned.

Any candidate vying for their party’s nomination will have to win a primary, which creates an incentive to play to the bases and the more extreme elements within the parties while trying to avoid taking positions that will backfire in a general election when candidates will be competing for unenrolled and moderate voters.

While party primaries can often weed out more moderate candidates or create headaches in the general election, Maine’s new system of semi-open primaries allows unenrolled candidates to participate in party primaries. It’s still too early to say how much the new system will change those dynamics.

One group that can avoid those primaries is independents, which Maine voters have shown a willingness to elect to statewide office. The most recent example is U.S. Sen. Angus King, who served as governor from 1995 to 2003.

Independent candidates are usually wealthy and capable of financing their own campaign operations since they don’t benefit from the political infrastructure and donor bases of political parties, which also receive national funding.

If candidates aren’t wealthy, they would presumably have to be well-known and respected.

One name being discussed as a possible independent candidate is Travis Mills, a retired U.S. Army staff sergeant who lost portions of his arms and legs in an explosion while serving in Afghanistan. His eponymous foundation supports post-9/11 recalibrated veterans and their families. He is also an author and motivational speaker, whose endorsement is often sought by Maine politicians.

Crystal Canney, who worked on independent Eliot Cutler’s campaigns, said she’s been hearing Mills’ name a lot.

“He is an incredible speaker and has a high profile with his foundation and service to the country,” Canney said. “He doesn’t quit easily, and in the state bureaucracy, a steel stomach is something you need if you are truly going to make a change for the better.”

Although Maine uses ranked choice voting in primaries and federal races, the state constitution prevents its use for state offices, such as the governor, leaving the door open for spoiler candidates.

Former campaign officials say politics is unpredictable, so it’s anyone’s guess who may emerge. In 2010, that candidate was LePage.

“There are always wild cards we don’t see coming, especially for an open seat,” Farmer said. “Would we have thought that the mayor of Waterville would end up being a two-term governor of national reputation? I don’t know that we would have.”

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