TikTok’s days in the US could be numbered. The social media platform is a short time away from a legal deadline that will require Apple and Google to remove the software from their respective app stores, effectively banning it across the country.
There are still a few ways TikTok could wriggle out of its do-or-die predicament. The Supreme Court could rule that the law banning the app is unconstitutional, though, as Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Keenan pointed out, the justices seem to be skeptical of that argument.
The company could also appeal to the incoming Trump administration to take some kind of action to save it, and it appears to be doing so already. TikTok CEO Shou Chew is set to attend Trump’s inauguration, the Wall Street Journal reports.
There’s also no clear-cut plan as to what the president-elect could do to put the brakes on an act of Congress. That’s not to say all hope is lost for TikTok, but its future is certainly murkier than ever.
Turning off TikTok could, however, prove to be a boon for the company’s biggest competitors. After gaining some 170 million users in the US, TikTok’s rivals are licking their chops at the prospect of an uptick in eyeballs heading their way as both users and advertisers look to alternatives.
The biggest winner would also be one of TikTok’s long-term critics, Meta (META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg. In particular, Instagram could see a sizable uptick in advertiser dollars if TikTok bites the dust.
“In general, it’s a good thing for Meta,” William Blair research analyst Ralph Schackart told Yahoo Finance. “We estimate in a note potentially 60% to 70% of TikTok spend could move to Instagram and it monetizes at around 3x the rate of TikTok.”
Meta has been battling TikTok for years, with Zuckerberg at varying times raising the specter of Chinese technological dominance over the US and threats to free speech. Zuckerberg also rolled out Instagram and Facebook’s Reels feature, a short-form video offering similar to TikTok, to combat the rival service and bring users back to his platforms.
If TikTok closes up shop, users will undoubtedly flock to Meta’s apps, increasing the number of people using the services and the amount of time they spend on them — which in turn would drive increased advertising revenue.
YouTube and its Shorts platform should also gain from TikTok’s loss. According to Morgan Stanley managing director Brian Nowak, every 10% of the time users would have spent on TikTok that goes to YouTube would add $400 million to $750 million in ad revenue to the video platform’s sales.
That said, Nowak warns that this won’t be a windfall for YouTube parent company Google (GOOG, GOOGL), as the growth would still only account for 0.1% to 0.3% of Google’s total 2026 ad revenue estimates. (Nowak instead said the most important opportunities for Google will still lie in search and AI growth.)
Social media companies have been chasing TikTok’s formula in an attempt to copy the social media platform’s success for some time. Reddit (RDDT), for example, offers its own short-form video feed that could entice former TikTok users looking for a broader kind of social media site complete with various message boards and communities.
Snapchat (SNAP) could also grab users who would have otherwise would have spent time on TikTok and the advertising dollars that follow. But as Nowak points out, Snap will have to ensure it can keep those TikTok refugees coming back over and over again — like TikTok does — if it hopes to hold onto that ad revenue.
“Over time, advertising allocation is a relative game and in order to maintain the ad dollar gains (or durably grow faster) we believe platforms need to prove performance, scalability and healthy relative [return on ad spend],” he wrote in an analyst note.
Pinterest (PINS) also stands to get a boost if TikTok is forced to go dark. While the app doesn’t have much in common with TikTok as far as overall design, it could offer an opportunity for online retailers looking to drum up e-commerce sales, something TikTok has managed to do thanks to its army of influencers.
Still, there’s no guarantee TikTok will be forced to ride off into the sunset. And that means none of these companies can rely on the growth a shutdown would offer. They’ll all just have to wait to find out the social media giant’s fate like the rest of us.
Email Daniel Howley at dhowley@yahoofinance.com. Follow him on Twitter at @DanielHowley.
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