Indy 500 ‘marred’ by rain in 2025? Farmers’ Almanac, NOAA give Indiana its spring forecasts

Depending on who you believe, Indiana’s spring weather is looking wetter than normal, or drier. It might be warmer or cooler, or about average. One long-range forecast by the Farmers’ Almanac predicts rain could once again dampen the Indy 500 in May. Or not…

This month the Old Farmer’s Almanac and Farmers’ Almanac released their early predictions on what spring weather might have in store around the country. The Midwest, once again, appears to be a mixed-bag of rain and sunshine.

Meteorologists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are predicting Indiana’s spring to be wetter than normal. The most recent seasonal outlook map by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows several Midwest states have equal chances for both above and below normal temperatures March throughout May of 2025.

Here’s what that means for Hoosiers living in Indiana over the next several months.

When is the first day of spring?

The first day of spring is Thursday, March 20, 2025.

Spring 2025: Indiana’s winter needs to chill out. What to know about spring this year.

Old Farmers Almanac predicts warm spring for most of country, unless you live in Indiana

A spring forecast issued this month by the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts “warmer-than-normal temperatures for most of the country,” unless you live in Indiana. The Old Farmer’s Almanac says dry conditions, along with near normal temperatures will be felt in the western Ohio Valley region.

Between April and May, the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts Indiana and its neighboring areas will experience “below-normal temperatures and precipitation.” By May, things get warmer. The almanac predicts Indiana and much of Kentucky will experience above-normal temperatures and rainfall.

Farmers’ Almanac predicts Indy 500 could be ‘marred’ by wet weather

Things are looking a little frostier for Indiana in an extended spring forecast issued by the Farmers’ Almanac. Winter conditions might linger in the Midwest, Great Lakes and New England areas. Temperatures will remain “somewhat coolish,” the almanac writes, for the northern and central regions of the country during spring.

According to its extended spring forecast, the Farmers’ Almanac also predicts “unsettled weather” over the Ohio Valley on May 25 could impact the Indy 500 on race day at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Image courtesy of the Farmer’s Almanac.

“The Indianapolis 500 could be marred by wet weather on May 25,” writes the Farmers’ Almanac, which frequently issues long-range weather forecasts for holidays such as Easter and popular sporting events like the Kentucky Derby.

Last year, a round of storms dumped rain across Central Indiana during Memorial Day weekend, which resulted not only in a delayed start of the Indy 500 but IMS president Doug Boles lifting the local TV blackout for the race.

Story continues after photo gallery.

Hoosiers and out-of-state racing fans might want to pause though before rethinking their Indy 500 plans. The almanac’s long-range predictions are sometimes little better than a coin flip.

It’s also far too early for the National Weather Service in Indianapolis to issue an accurate weather forecast in Central Indiana for May 25.

How accurate are the almanacs?

The Old Farmer’s Almanac, writes USA TODAY, has made a name for itself by providing long-term weather forecasts on an annual basis. The book also gives readers full moon dates, recipes and various self-help tips. However, both the Old Farmer’s Almanac and Farmers’ Almanac got their starts in the 18th and 19th centuries, long before satellite weather tracking became a practice.

One study cited by Popular Mechanics reported the Farmers’ Almanac was right about 52% of the time. Other studies by trained meteorologists, such as those conducted by Jan Noll in 2016 and 2017, show the Old Farmer’s Almanac’s predictive capabilities are well below its claims of correctly getting the weather right 80% of the time.

NOAA issues spring 2025 weather outlook; Midwest has equal chance for above, below normal temperatures

According to NOAA’s seasonal outlook map issued earlier this month, Indiana has an equal chance for above and below normal temperatures. The same can’t be said for East Coast states like New York and South Carolina. The weather is looking to veer warmer than average in states from Maine to Florida.

How warm is spring usually in Indianapolis?

The average daily high in Indianapolis, according to NWS, is about 52 degrees Fahrenheit in March, 64 in April and 73 in May. Lows during those same three months range an average from the low 30s to low 50s.

Indiana is looking wetter than normal for spring 2025, per NOAA

Precipitation from March to May in Indiana could be wetter this year, according to NOAA. The Hoosier state, including parts of western Ohio and Kentucky, Michigan and southeastern Kentucky, have a 40–50% higher chance of above-normal precipitation.

Records kept by NWS show the average total rainfall around Indianapolis from March through May equal 12.78 inches.

La Niña is still around and will likely impact weather

One important weather factor to keep in mind is that La Niña is sticking around well into 2025. NOAA updated its climate predictions in January, saying La Niña conditions are expected to continue February into April, along with a 60% chance March through May.

La Niña, according to the National Weather Service, is a natural climate pattern in which the ocean’s seawater cools. It can have a significant impact on weather around the world.

What does La Niña mean for the Midwest?

Historically for the Midwest, La Niña conditions usually create fall weather that’s warmer and drier than normal while winter into spring tends to be wetter than average, according to NWS.

For the latest and most accurate Midwest weather forecasts, Hoosiers in Indiana can stay up to date with their local National Weather Service.

Story continues after photo gallery with spring photos from 2024.

When do we ‘spring forward’?

Daylight saving time begins 2 a.m. Sunday, March 9. Participating states will turn clocks forward by one hour on the second Sunday of March, or “spring forward” resulting in the loss of an hour of sleep.

When are the four seasons in 2025?

• Spring: March 20, 2025.

• Summer: June 20, 2025.

• Fall: Sept. 22, 2025.

• Winter: Dec. 21, 2025.

Groundhog Day 2025: Will Phil and Hope see their shadows? What to know about the weather predicting groundhogs.

John Tufts covers trending news for IndyStar and Midwest Connect. Send him a news tip at JTufts@Gannett.com. Find him on BlueSky at JohnWritesStuff.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Spring for Indiana could be wetter in 2025. Will it rain on Indy 500?

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