JPMorgan’s Benhamou Sees US Stocks as Stuck Before Spring Rally

(Bloomberg) — US stocks will struggle early March amid weaker economic data before they rally once again later in spring, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Ilan Benhamou.

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The S&P 500 has already lagged international markets this year amid uncertainty from US President Donald Trump’s policies from tariffs, to immigration and job cuts to the federal government under Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE.

“In the immediate future, things are too messy for stocks to break out, and I think the market is stuck,” Benhamou, equity derivatives sales, wrote in a note to clients this week.

A mix of recent layoffs as heard on earnings calls and the ripple effects from measures taken by the DOGE team will add pressure on the macro picture, while consumer surveys are expected to go lower and questions remain surrounding inflation.

Stocks will need to get to a point were “technicals appear washed and oversold,” Benhamou said. “Retail will be exhausted, CTAs more tapped out.”

The S&P 500 will then be able to rally again in late March and early April, according to Benhamou. “Liquidity improves, macro overhang clears out, earnings keep showing resilient corporate America, the hemorrhage stops, and retail is back at the buying table,” he said.

For now, Nvidia Corp.’s earnings have passed without damage, yet also without big support. Risks and confusion surrounding tariffs remain, weighing on overall risk sentiment. Seasonality is weak into March, making the outlook for stocks in the coming weeks challenging.

“Medium-term, I am convinced that the path is SPX higher, yields lower,” Benhamou said.