Insights from The Irish Times, Politico, and Euronews
The News
French President Emmanuel Macron called for a “broad” democratic alliance against the far-right after Marine Le Pen’s National Rally clinched a historic victory in the first round of parliamentary elections.
Macron’s centrists are now in a precarious position after they came third, behind a left-wing bloc in second place, in a result that marks a major setback for the president whose calling of the snap election led to shockwaves in France and around the world.
Markets, however, reacted with relief as traders bet on Le Pen’s party falling short of an absolute majority after Sunday’s second round of voting. But Macron now faces a “bitterly painful choice,” Politico noted, on whether or not to pull out his candidates in areas where leftwing candidates could win, to keep the far right out.
SIGNALS
Absolute majority still a challenge for Le Pen
Securing an absolute majority is still seen as an uphill battle for the National Rally, as candidates from rival parties who fared poorly in the first round could drop out of the race, preventing vote-splitting and thereby drawing support away from the far right. Macron faces two scenarios: In the event Le Pen does win big on Sunday, the president will be forced to govern alongside the National Rally, and appoint 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, the party’s president, as prime minister. If the National Rally doesn’t secure a majority, “Macron could find himself with a hung parliament unable to govern the EU’s second biggest economy and its top military power,” The Irish Times noted.
France in ‘uncharted waters’
Macron and his prime minister, Gabriel Attal, on Monday called on French citizens to prevent the National Rally from securing an absolute majority. Macron must now also crucially consider whether to tell his candidates to drop out of the race to avoid vote-splitting “or attempt to save what remains of his once-dominant movement before it dies,” Politico observed. The president called the snap election in an attempt to stop the far-right’s rise in France following stunning European election wins for the National Rally — but the vote has only cemented the party’s growing support. The nation is facing “uncharted waters,” Politico added: “The country would be governed, at least in part, by politicians who made their names sympathizing with Vladimir Putin while vowing to rip up the European Union, wage war on migration and quit NATO.”
Macron’s party trounced in near-term
The election can be read as a protest vote against Macron’s handling of France’s key issues, one political analyst told Euronews. But while “there is no hope for the presidential party in the short term,” François-Xavier Millet, a professor at the the University of the Antilles told the outlet, a National Rally majority could give Macron leverage to rekindle waning support for his centrist coalition. “If the far-right heads the government, Macron could try to regain some sort of political legitimacy in the long-term by presenting himself as a guarantor of the Constitution trying to safeguard the French from some of the far-right’s decisions,” Millet said.
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