Maddow Blog | Will Republican senators who balk at Trump’s nominees face primaries?

It’s not exactly a secret that Donald Trump has chosen some highly controversial, scandal-plagued, manifestly unqualified Republicans for powerful positions in the president-elect’s second term. In theory, with the Senate GOP conference poised to have a 53-member majority, the confirmation process should be relatively straightforward.

In practice, however, there are some Republican senators — not many, but enough — who aren’t fully comfortable acting as a rubber stamp for the incoming president’s worst personnel choices.

Those members aren’t just feeling pressure, they’re also facing a specific kind of threat. The conservative Washington Times reported:

Senate Republicans who block President-elect Donald Trump’s nominees face an increasing threat of primary challenges from MAGA operatives fighting for Mr. Trump’s antiestablishment picks. Political groups aligned with Mr. Trump are eyeing Republican senators up for reelection in 2026 who have expressed reservations about Mr. Trump’s unconventional nominees or refused to quickly affirm their support.

Such talk isn’t altogether new. A week ago, after Republican Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota said he had “no objections” to the FBI Director Chris Wray’s job performance — necessarily suggesting that Kash Patel prospective nomination was unnecessary — prominent voices on the right voiced their displeasure.

“Senator Rounds, you are up for reelection in 2026,” conservative activist Charlie Kirk wrote via social media. “If you vote against any of Trump’s nominees a primary challenge wouldn’t be hard. Just a reminder.”

Responding to Kirk’s missive, conspiratorial billionaire Elon Musk added, “Those who oppose reform will lose their primary/election. Period.”

It’s possible, if not likely, that such rhetoric will have the intended intimidating effect, but antsy GOP senators should also keep recent history in mind.

For Trump and some of his most loyal supporters, Republican lawmakers have reason to be terrified of his intervention in primaries because he can singlehandedly dictate the outcomes: He tells GOP primary voters who to vote for, and they obey his directions.

But recent history tells a different story.

As recently as two years ago, for example, Trump declared publicly that he’d end Republican Sen. John Thune’s career. He didn’t, and the South Dakotan will soon be the Senate majority leader.

Trump backed Evan Jenkins in a Senate primary in West Virginia, and Jenkins lost. He backed Trent Staggs in a Senate primary in Utah, and Staggs lost. He backed Christine Serrano Glassner in a Senate primary in New Jersey, and she lost. He backed Luther Strange in a Senate primary in Alabama, and Strange lost.

What’s more, some incumbent Senate Republicans have defied Trump’s wishes on key votes — see Maine’s Susan Collins and Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski, for example — and lived to tell the tale.

Clearly, GOP senators have some difficult decisions ahead, but if they’re wondering if votes against the president-elect’s worst cabinet choices will necessarily end their careers, they probably ought to know better.

This article was originally published on MSNBC.com

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