Market Digest: SNY, CME, HOG, PCAR, LEA, VLTO

Summary

Monday Tee Up: Mag 7, Jobs, Inflation This week and next are perhaps the biggest two weeks of the year for Wall Street. This week, five of the Magnificent 7 companies report earnings and there is important data on jobs and inflation. Next week features the U.S. presidential election and a Federal Reserve rate decision. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lower by 2.7%, the S&P 500 lost 1.0%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.2%. For the year, the Dow is higher by 12%, the S&P is up 22%, and the Nasdaq has popped 23%. The earnings calendar is packed this week. On Monday, Ford and V.F. Corp. report results. On Tuesday, Alphabet, Advanced Micro Devices, McDonald’s, Pfizer, Visa, and Electronic Arts. On Wednesday, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Starbucks, Booking Holdings, MGM Resorts, Eli Lilly, and Amgen. On Thursday, Apple, Amazon, Merck, Comcast, Uber, MasterCard, Altria, and Bristol-Myers Squibb. And on Friday, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Charter Communications. So far, 181 (36%) of the S&P 500 companies have reported. Earnings are coming in 4.4% higher than in the prior-year quarter. That follows a strong 13% rise in earnings for 2Q. Argus forecasts about 5%-7% growth in earnings this quarter. For full year, we forecast roughly a 7%-9% gain. For 3Q, we expect Information Technology, Communication Services, and Healthcare to be the sectors that shine. On the economic calendar, the October jobs report comes out on Friday. For September, Nonfarm Payrolls were a strong 254,000. Inflation indicator PCE is due on Thursday. PCE came in at 2.2% in August and Core PCE printed at 2.7%. Argus forecasts PCE at 2.1% for September and Core PCE at 2.6%. Elsewhere, Tuesday brings updates on Job Openings, Consumer Confidence, and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. On Wednesday, the ADP private payrolls report and GDP hit the tape. On Thursday, Personal Income and Personal Spending are due out. And on Friday, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing, and Auto Sales will be released. Argus Chief Economist Chris Graja, CFA, is making his call of the week the October jobs report. For October, Chris sees that payrolls slipping to 60,000 — but that needs some explaining. Chris says this indicator will be hard to read because of the two recent devastating hurricanes and the strike at Boeing. Chris sees the Unemployment Rate sticking at 4.1% for October, close to the Fed’s longer-run project

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