Summary
As if Big Tech needed a greater bullish tailwind, the second half of the years since the bear-market bottom in 2002 have seen a seasonal dominance for the group. In the past 20 years, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) has risen 4% on average in the second half, with a 90% win rate. Standout months have been November, with a 74% win rate and an average 2% return, while both August and October have a 58% win rate and average gains of 0.8% and 1.4%, respectfully. The NDX saw second-half gains in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2023. Many of these gains clocked in between 15% and 40%. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The S&P 500 (SPX) has been remarkably tranquil even though only a handful of stocks are propelling the index higher. As if this writing, the SPX has gone 345 trade days without a daily 2% drop, according to Carson Investment Research. One would think that we are overdue, but there have been periods when this kind of calm market has persisted for much longer. The last time we saw this much calm was back in 2016 to 2018, when the SPX went 351 days without a big dip. Prior to that, and the longest streak since 1950, was th
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