Market Digest: VSH, ULTA

Summary

When looking for potential relative strength, we note that the Russell 2000 (IWM) continues to have a very messy long-term chart — but it’s possible that a large cup-with-handle pattern is being traced out. An index break over the prior high at 235 from late 2021 would complete the pattern. As long as that breakout holds, small-caps could have a lot of room on the upside. Relative strength for the IWM versus the S&P 500 is still in a downtrend, but has flattened since late 2023. The iShares Core S&P Small Cap (IJR), which is the ETF for the S&P SmallCap 600 (SML) index, looks a bit better. We like this chart more than the IWM chart as it is less volatile and closer to making an all-time high. However, in recent years, IWM and IJR have performed in-line with each other. The iShares MSCI Emerging Market ETF (EEM) remains weak on both an absolute and relative basis. The EEM does well when the U.S. Dollar Index (USD) falls and does terribly when the greenback is rising, this as the two are highly negatively correlated. Unless the dollar really breaks down, we would not invest in EEM, which has trailed the ‘500’ since October 2010. Most of the big moves in Bitcoin have been highly negatively correlated with the USD. After a five-wave move higher, Bitcoin looks to be tracing out a bullish flag. For Bitcoin to break to all-time highs, we likely need the USD to continue lower. The COT data for the greenback just turned bullish, which could hurt Bitcoin. For now, we would be patient and wait for a break out of the flag. And, of note, there are many other ways to play crypto. Meanwhile, there is an interesting technical dynamic occurring that could have implications for other markets. The type of technical analysis is called intermarket analysis, made famous by John Murphy, CMT. The markets include the U.S. Dollar Index (USD), gold and silver, emerging markets, and Bitcoin. While the price charts of these markets are always the most-important barometer — and some of the assets are stretched to the upside (metals) and the downside (greenback) — the Commitment of Traders (COT) data lines up very well with reversals in the markets. The dollar is negatively correlated to a high degree with all the above assets. Using COT data over many decades has allowed us to make many non-consensus and reversal calls. But it can also be very frustrating because th

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