No one expects the Great British summertime to feel like a tropical holiday, but it’s fair to say the weather has so far been a bit rubbish this year.
While we have enjoyed the odd day of sunshine, the trend has been towards chillier temperatures, cloudy skies and showers, leaving most of us wondering if we’ll ever get a decent summer this year.
Some areas of England had already seen 80 per cent of the average expected rainfall for July within the first week of the month. And the soggy start to summer follows the UK’s wettest spring since 1986, and the sixth wettest on record.
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But it’s not just the rain dampening spirits. The chilly weather has had Brits reaching for their jumpers and jackets despite the time of year.
The Met Office recorded the average temperature for the first week of July as 12.9C – some 2.4C below the month’s long-term average.
Meanwhile, June ended with an average temperature of 12.9C, 0.4C lower than the long-term meteorological average, despite a mini-heatwave in parts of the country towards the end of the month. June’s low temperatures were in stark contrast to temperatures seen the month prior, when an average temperature of 13.1C saw the warmest May in records dating back to 1884.
According to the Met Office, the recent cooler conditions are down to the jet stream – the high velocity wind in the atmosphere which causes changes in pressure. While the UK has been on the cooler side of the jet stream, countries in southern Europe have seen much higher temperatures because of it.
Taking to X, formerly Twitter, with an explanation, the weather agency said: “Much of North West Europe has been stuck on the cold side of the jet stream for sometime, resulting in below average temperatures and unsettled weather. By contrast, to the south, temperatures have reached into the mid 30s.”
Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like conditions will improve over the next few days. The Met Office added: “This pattern is not expected to change much this week.”
For the weather to improve in the UK, bringing the warmer temperatures we are used to in summer, there would need to be a significant shift.
Met Office spokesperson Grahame Madge explained: “A lot of our weather is being dominated by the position of the jet stream. Normally this west to east high-altitude ribbon of air moves to the north of the UK in summer.
“As the jet stream marks the boundary between cooler conditions to the north and warmer conditions to the south, we are on the ‘cool’ side of the jet; this is surpressing temperature. Additionally, the jet stream is the main driver of low-pressure systems which are directed toward the UK when the jet stream is over us.
“For things to change we really need to see the jet stream become more north-shifted: this would allow areas of high pressure to become established to the south, bringing warmth and more settled conditions.
“The forecast doesn’t show a strong signal for that to happen, although there is still room for a period of more settled weather to become established.”
According to the Met Office’s long-range forecast, there is a chance we could see higher temperatures arrive in August.
Towards the end of this month there is a “slightly increased chance of more settled spells of weather developing”, according to the weather agency, with hope that August will be a drier and brighter month.
The forecast for the start of August reads: “Overall drier than average conditions are more likely than wetter than average. Temperatures are expected to vary through the period, but overall, warm is slightly favoured over cool.”
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